What Ancient Civilisations Knew About Probability
At The Next Right, we believe some of the best lessons come from the oldest sources. Long before modern math gave us formal probability theory, humans across history already understood randomness, likelihood, and risk in intuitive ways. They didn’t have the equations, but they had experience. The goal here isn’t textbook math—it’s to appreciate how ancient societies sensed probability through games, decisions, and predictions. Their early observations still inform the intuitive core we tap into today.
Gambling and Divination: The Frontlines of Chance
Long before statistical calculations, early civilizations engaged with uncertainty through rituals and games. From casting bones in Africa 50,000 years ago to rolling dice in Mesopotamia and Egypt, people were tapping into chance to understand the world—or escape it.
Mesopotamian Dice Games
Clay dice, discovered in sites like Ur and Babylon (circa 3000–2000 BCE), weren’t simply toys—they were tools for shaping decisions and understanding fate. Players quickly noticed patterns: some faces came up more often, some rolls were rarer. Without math tools, they had to rely on observation, noting which outcomes were unlikely—laying early patterns for intuitive odds reading.
Egyptian Knucklebones and Hecatombus
In Egypt, astragali (ankle bones) were thrown for both game and spiritual ends. People understood the nuances: landing on a small side came up more often than a tall side. They treated these outcomes differently—storing intuitive knowledge of biased randomness long before we called it bias.
Mathematical Insight in Classical Civilisations
Even without a formula for probability, the Greeks and Indians began formal thinking in its direction.
Greek Dice Discussions
Philosophers like Aristotle wrote about luck, chance, and randomness in ethics and physics. He made distinctions: chance is an occasional trigger; luck is related to human desires. Though qualitative, Aristotle’s reflections were early attempts to categorize uncertainty.
Indian Mathematicians
In the 6th century CE, Indian mathematicians like Aryabhata and Brahmagupta began working with large tables, permutations, and numeric patterns. They documented how combining events affected counts and possibilities—an approximation of combinations. It shows a shift from intuitive gaming to systematic enumeration of outcomes.
Chinese Recognition of Patterns
Ancient China offers clear early glimpses of probability-like thinking.
Yijing: Predicting with Hexagrams
The I Ching, or Book of Changes, guided decision-making using Oracle sticks or coin tosses to form hexagrams. While not focused on mathematics, the repeated use of outcomes—broken vs. unbroken lines—taught users to read patterns, understand transitions, and respect statistical predominance in symbolic form.
Liu Hui and Chance Calculations
By the 3rd century, Chinese mathematician Liu Hui used combinatorial ideas in calculating areas and volumes, but also for probability-related puzzles: “If we pick items from a bag, what’s the chance…” These thought exercises show they understood the value of counting outcomes.
Romans, Risk, and Early Insurance Sense
Ancient Rome blended probability with commerce and social contracts.
Dice, Lots, and Gambling Culture
Romans loved games of chance—from latrunculi (board games) to knucklebones and dice. Philosophers like Seneca wrote about how arbitrariness influences human behavior, voicing early psychological insight into gambling habits and ruin.
Naufragia: Risk and Maritime Loss
The Romans developed early risk-sharing systems for shipwreck losses, where merchants pooled money to offset losses for a single voyage’s shipwreck. While not a probability formula, this risk-sharing system displayed intuitive grasp of diversifiable risk: spread it so no one loses everything.
Medieval and Renaissance Seeds of Probability
When Europe emerged from the Dark Ages, probability thinking picked up steam—but still didn’t yet have the statistical formulas we know now.
Card Games and Gambling Hubs
By the late Middle Ages, card games and dice propelled discussions among mathematicians. In Venice and Florence, gambling houses spurred intellectual interest in chance. Combinatorial reasoning grew: “If I draw two cards, what’s the chance I get two hearts?”
Gerolamo Cardano (1501–1576)
The earliest formal probability pioneer, Cardano was fascinated by gaming. In his Liber de Ludo Aleae (“Book on Games of Chance”), he wrote about outcomes, fairness, and expectation—but framed within game rules, not pure theory. He described the logic behind: favorable outcomes/total outcomes, capturing the essence of probability more than anyone before him.
Transition to Formal Probability
It wasn’t until Pascal and Fermat in 1650 that modern probability emerged, yet all precedents built the foundation.
Gambling to Theory
The famous letters between Pascal and Fermat began from a problem about dividing stakes if players quit mid-game. They solved it using combinatorial counting—a leap that bridged play and formal mathematics. This transition came directly from game roots, not abstract math labs.
Why Ancient Probability Still Matters
- Intuition has roots: What feels like instinct now—the ability to sense skewed odds—has been honed across millennia.
- Decision-making is primordial: Risk, chance, and uncertainty existed long before formulas. Even bone throwers knew they were shaping fate softly.
- Modern logic emerges from relatable choices: Ancient approaches were rudimentary but shaped frameworks for maturing into formal probability.
- Lessons in bias: Recognizing that not all sides are equal—through knucklebones and dice—helps us question assumptions in modern context: Are slot reels fair? Are odds skewed? The ancient mind noticed first.
What This Means for Your Play Today
Understanding the lineage of probability does three things:
- Honors your own intuition: When you sense something is off in odds, you’re echoing centuries of experience across dice-pickers and diviners.
- Encourages respect for data: From bone throws to binomial coefficients: ancient thinkers valued outcome records and face counts. That’s how we moved from superstition to science. You can do the same with your own logs and play data.
- Validates structural skepticism: They knew games could be rigged—why? Because they watched outcomes. That teaches you to check RTP, verify game fairness, and question promotional narratives even when they sound good.
Learning from Ancient Examples
Here’s how to bring ancient insights to modern gambling:
- Track outcomes as they did with bones or dice patterns—notice if your favorite bet underperforms.
- Respect bias, as players knew knucklebones were asymmetric— investigate your game algorithms or rounding quirks.
- Diversify risk, Roman-style: don’t risk all your bankroll in one bet.
- Use expectation and combinatorial counts in daily betting—Cardano did it centuries ago, you can too.
- Be flexible and reflective, like ancient diviners: change based on outcome patterns, not hope.
The Bridge from Then to Now
From clay cubes in Mesopotamia to Cardano’s manuscripts, the conquest of randomness has always been human. It’s an arc of curiosity, awareness, structure, and finally abstraction into modern science.
At The Next Right, we see that same thread in your play. You want both feel and structure, intuition and discipline. The ancients gave us the toolkit—ours is to use it with intention.
Ancient Wisdom for Today’s Player
At The Next Right, we bring ancient context to modern thinking. No, you won’t roll with clay dice or consult Yijing sticks before a bet—but you can internalize their habits: curiosity, observation, respect, and structure. Recognize bias. Record outcomes. Manage risk.
From bones to binary, our relationship with chance has always been evolving. The questions were always the same: What will happen? Is it normal? Can I influence it? When you embrace that legacy, you turn gambling from luck to learning, from whim to thoughtful play.
That’s not ancient superstition—it’s ancient insight. And it still helps you take The Next Right step at the tables, on the reels, or wherever chance calls.
