Hoping for Carter Redux

Of all the insidious conservative rationales for witholding support from John McCain, the most foolish one has to be the idea that by allowing Barack Obama, Republicans will save the party from being redefined leftward.  Yet, some clearly not-stupid people cling to this canard as a justification for abstention.  What this amounts to is an act of petulance gussied up in the finery of lofty principle.

These intractable conservatives have convinced themselves that a McCain victory in the fall will be interpreted by the press as a rejection of the core principles of the Republican Party by the rank and file.  However, there is no reason that this must be the case.  There are other ways to interpret a McCain victory, and the responsibility for how it is ultimately portrayed rests in the hands of Republicans themselves.  A vote for McCain need not be a vote for a cap-and-trade system for reducing carbon emissions when it can more accurately be described as a vote against windfall profits taxes and extreme regulatory controls.

But, in the end, a McCain victory won't be interpreted in either way.  When the election is over, and the media outlets start pouring over the exit poll results, the winner is going to be defined by the war in Iraq.  McCain supporters won't be going to the polls because they think he has the best answer to the global warming/climate change "crisis".  They won't be going to the polls to show appreciation for his efforts toward campaign finance reports.  They won't be going to the polls because they believe he was right to have opposed the Bush tax cuts in 2001.  None of those things will register very highly, if at all, among the priorities of McCain voters.

Instead, the winner will be decided on three issues, any one of which could take precedence over the others between now and November:  (1) Gas prices, (2) the economy, and (3) the war in Iraq.  None of McCain's stances on any of these issues is a threat to conservative orthodoxy or the traditional Republican Party platform.

However, if Barack Obama wins the election, you can rest assured that it will be interpreted by the press as a wholesale rejection of the every bit of conservatism that marked the Bush years by the voting public as a whole.