Republicans for Fiscal Irresponsibility?

Gordon is right, nobody seems to have any idea how to deal with the looming debt cliff towards which we're running.  You can't keep saying "cut taxes" unless you have some reasonable way to bring spending into line with tax revenues.  These deficits are going to be the major issue in forthcoming elections. - Jon Henke

I shore love me some tax cuts, but...

While I hold the highest of respect for former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan, she seems to be missing a vital point, right now.  She's written, IMO, some of the best political speeches of my lifetime.  At times, she's also been willing to criticize the GOP for fiscal irresponsibility. In her most recent Wall Street Journal article, she made some valid points about the Obama stimulus package du jour.  However, it's telling that the following terms are missing from her article: deficit, balanced budget, and debt.

Also at the Wall Street Journal, Rush Limbaugh proposes his stimulus plan, which allows Obama to spend $486 billion as he sees fit and for Limbaugh to be able to direct $414 billion toward tax cuts as he sees fit.  To be sure, Limbaugh's suggestion is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but it is also lacking the same words as Noonan's article: deficit, balanced budget, and debt.

At issue is whether we should spend a lot of money which we don't have on "infrastructure" and a bit on tax cuts, or less money we don't have on "infrastructure" and more on tax cuts.  There is no serious suggestion from either major party to deal with the deficit, decrease government spending, balance the budget, or decrease our debt.  

 Speaking to Reuters, Arizona Sen. McCain said the alternative plan would include what he described as "more effective tax cuts, such as a payroll tax cut" and spending on projects aimed at immediately creating jobs.

  "A group of us Republican senators are working on coming up with an alternative package that I would hope would have some elements to it that Americans would support," said McCain, who lost the November 4 U.S. election to Obama, a Democrat.

While I agree with him on many issues, former Treasury Department economist Bruce Bartlett is even suggesting that we use borrowed money to "invest" in our future.  I've seen Las Vegas gamblers drawing cash advances from their credit cards to invest in their "sure win," too. 

When looking at the typical family checkbook, most reasonable people realize that when they are egregiously overspending, there is a really simple solution: reduce spending.  Spending reductions to balance the family debt may not be the most fun of solutions: we might not be able to buy that 50 inch televsion or take that vacation, but it's a necessity most of us have faced from time to time.

Sometimes it becomes necessary to borrow money to make the family budget solvent again.  However, this isn't the time to max out the credit card on a trip to Disneyland or borrow money at a high interest rate in order to throw it back into the family economy.  Certainly, one wouldn't take out a cash advance to throw the money into a 401K right now.

To apply the family analogy to national politics, the Democrats wish to max out our federal credit cards with frivolous purchases while the Republicans wish to max out our credit cards with high-interest cash advances. People with common sense know that both of these solutions to fiscal problems lead to the same end: fiscal insolvency and eventual bankruptcy.

Bartlett is probably correct in suggesting that the GOP should move away from supply-side politics.  Tax increases aren't the solution, either.  The first step which needs to be taken is to very seriously reduce federal spending, no matter the immediate political cost. 

If the Republican Party wishes to resonate with common-sense Americans, they've got to move beyond this "we've got to do something now" mindset about the economy.  They need to take a strong lead and do the right thing.  The current emotion about Obama and stimulus packages will be gone by the 2010 elections and many voters will be angry about the initial consequences of such bad legislation by then.  Republican candidates will benefit from this, especially if GOP leaders take the high road now.

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Comments

Limbaugh and Noonan aren't tone deaf.

There are three really good reasons Limbaugh and Noonan did not use the words deficit, balanced budget, and debt in their critiques of the stimulus bill. Those reasons are

Reagan

Bush 41

Bush 43

Any Republican who even mentions deficit, balanced budget, or debt at this point sounds about as tone deaf as the racist who defends himself by saying "Hey, some of my very best friends are n!ggers."

So your prognosis?

Obama certainly is not talking about the deficit. After what would be the biggest spending bill in US history he will be in the same position.

Leaves the situation of somebody needs to not act like a fool and say time for a change; or we ride the national debt into the ground.

if (WIDGETBOX) WIDGETBOX.renderWidget('8ffb45e1-d8a0-4464-a627-93d5a68756b9');Get the National Debt Clock widget and many other great free widgets at Widgetbox!

 

Obama isn't talking about the deficit, balanced budget, etc...

...but neither are the Republicans.  The topic has been left wide open since Ross Perot/the Contract with America.

Republicans could own this ground, but they might have to give up a bit of supply-side economics ground.  It might be better to have a plan to make bod new gains, as opposed to the current plan of reducing the amount of loss by attrition.

The current plan is Bush 3.

Spend like a drunken sailor. With the first bailout signed by Bush and the megadose by Obama.

Better than Bush/Reagan

The Bush and Reagan deficits did us little good -- no infrastructure.  If we have to incur debt, let's at least get something for it. 

The "Republicans for fiscal responsibility" club is like the "Wall Street for sensible bonuses" club.  They have some dues to pay before anyone takes them seriously.

Bod New Gains?

I thought we donkeys were the party of bodily gain (as opposed to Gordon Gecko Gain)?  Still, the neocomrades can have that franchise it they want it.

But seriously, where does Neocomrade S. Gordon see opportunites for the Party of Big Management to make significant gains of any sort at the moment?  All the commentators seem to agree that after the Fabulous Flyboy was shot down last year, or maybe as soon as he had been nominated, the age of "Reagan Democrats" was over. (I.e., cultural reaction is finally played out.)

A comparable age of "Perot Idiots" is not logically impossible, but can it be cranked up again after eight years of hiatus?

Happy days.

 

We also had two Clinton terms...

...and now Obama is president.

Instead of trying to draw minor political differences for immediate political gain, a conservative leader could take the bold step of actually trying to help the American people and move policy in a more fiscally conservative direction.  Instead, it looks like more politics as usual.

I don't believe that American's wanted the type of change Obama represents, but I do think they want a change from status quo GOP and Democratic politics. 

Clinton proposed fiscal responsibility.

Clinton proposed a very fiscally responsible plan in his first few weeks in office. He said it would lead to annual budget surplus, and put us on track to having the debt paid off by 2012.

Republicans said it would do no such thing and ALL voted against it. Well history showed the GOP were 100% wrong, and Clinton and the Democrats were 100% correct. So it seems Republicans wouldn't know sound fiscal policy if it walked up behind them and bit them in the ass. Then as well as now.

Just back off and STFU and let us fix this country again like we did last time.

Witness the "reality-based community" in action.

Son, Clinton's "very fiscally responsible plan" didn't do any such thing.  Clinton's principal claim to economic fame is being the fortunate occupant of the Oval Office at a time when a huge revenue spike driven by the dot-com boom briefly outstripped the federal government's capacity to piss money away, and then managing to gull stupid people into believing that he had something to do with creating the good times.

The last time we backed off and let you fuckwits "fix this country", we ended up with the worst president in history lecturing us all that a crisis of confidence was the source of our economic troubles.  When we need advice from retards, we'll call you.

 

Be Fair

Clinton used a lot of politcal capital to pass NAFTA.  He deserves a tremendous amount of credit for that.

That said, Bill Clinton didn't balance the budget; Newt Gingrich and John Kasich balanced the budget.

Comment on "Be Fair"

"That said, Bill Clinton didn't balance the budget; Newt Gingrich and John Kasich balanced the budget." Well, not really. Economic, and specifically, productivity growth during the '90s is actually what balanced the budget. This productivity growth was enabled by the tech boom and by low inflation and interest rates, all of which was a byproduct of the economic reforms of the Reagan years.

I don't agree that the Clinton budget was good, either

IMO, we need a budget plan that balances the budget and pays off the debt -- then we can talk about tax cuts.

But no tax increases or expansion of government, either.

 

 

I think I can bottom line this whole thing.

OK we can argue all day about who gets the credit or blame for whatever in our federal fiscal history and never get anywhere. You have your hindsight view, and I have mine.

But I think we can all agree on some historical facts that apply since Ike was in office. The federal budget has always been pretty damn near 20% of GDP no matter who was in the White House or who controlled congress. That percentage is what it takes to keep the USA chugging at numero uno on the world stage. Argue smaller government all you want. If you don't spend 20% of GDP we start slipping down to the level of France or England and are no longer a "superpower". Just a major player.

So we have to collect 20% of GDP in tax revenues plus a bit more to responsibly service our debt..  That is just common sense responsible fiscal policy that the right and the left should have no problem agreeing upon.  The right and the left can then go at it hammer and tongs debating where that money should come from. Capital gains tax? Soak the rich? Death tax? Etc.? ad infinitum.

That would be an honest and fun political debate. But our first priority should be to get everybody on the same page of coming to agreement on what is true fiscal responsibility in terms of spending and tax revenues. We all know it isn't endless deficits. The current situation is an unprecedented emergency that no one on either side would be in favor of if our current global economy was not in an obvious frozen death spiral.

Why spend 20% of GDP on government?

Argue smaller government all you want. If you don't spend 20% of GDP we start slipping down to the level of France or England and are no longer a "superpower".

Can you prove this on any quantitative level? 

So we have to collect 20% of GDP in tax revenues plus a bit more to responsibly service our debt..  That is just common sense responsible fiscal policy that the right and the left should have no problem agreeing upon.

No. I don't agree that we should be spending 20% of GDP on government.  So, keep taxes the same and reduce spending.

Not really

 Argue smaller government all you want. If you don't spend 20% of GDP we start slipping down to the level of France or England and are no longer a "superpower". Just a major player.

France and England spend close to 40-45 percent of their GDP on government which is a major reason why they are no longer superpowers.

Francs and Pounds don't equate to Dollars.

Wood-If we spent 40-45% of OUR GDP annually we would be in a similar fix as France and England. If we spent an number equal to 40-45% of THEIR GDP annually that would not be near enough to maintain our superpower psudo-empire.

chemjeff-I'm nowhere near a good enough economist to prove it. But I can look up the historical data online and find it very telling that in spite of all the debate, federal spending is always between 18-22% of the previous years GDP. Just a weird coincidence? But....

Perhaps that is too much. And spending should be cut. (Egads!, they are going to revoke my liberal liscence for saying that.) After all we do have an enormous debt. Maybe congress could cap the budget at 15-18% of GDP. And then tax at a rate of 22-25% of GDP to chip away at the debt.

But even tweaking the numbers down a couple of percentage points represents huge slashes in spending. If we decided seriously attack the debt and pay it off within 20 years there is no way we could do that and still spend more on defense than all the other nations of the world combined.

We would have to go back to pre Cold War thinking of having a moderately strong standing army with good plans in place to ramp up to war standing in a matter of months if neccessary. That might make us even stronger psychologically. If any country saw us put our war plan into effect they would know we are serious as all get out and straighten up their act until we stand down again.

Deficit reduction killed the Gingrich revolution

There is a very good reason why the GOP isn't talking fiscal responsibility: the last time they got serious about deficits they got creamed in the next elections and still haven't really recovered. Cahnman is right, Gingrich and Kasich did balance the budget and forced Clinton to sign it. That was one of the big accomplishments of the GOP Congress when they finally took control in 1995. And in 1996 the airwaves were full of ads about how the cruel Republicans were cutting Medicaire and school lunches, and the rising tide of the Gingrich revolution was stopped cold. If they'd stuck with popular policies, they might have expanded their majorities in 1996, and maybe even swept Bob Dole along with them. Instead, the GOP majorities were stalled with very narrow margins so that they could never seriously attempt the kind of sweeping changes that the Democrats are trying now. By the end of the Clinton administration they'd figured out that maintaining control was going to require some good old fashioned vote buying, whether that was with tax cuts or new spending programs. That approach allowed them to hold on until 2006 when it finally came crashing down on them. But even now they have very good reason to be afraid that a big push for deficit reduction is going to lose them even more seats in 2010, or at least prevent them from making the gains they need to actually get anything done.

It is possible that they are wrong this time. Maybe the recent financial disasters have people really convinced that its time to get serious about deficits. Maybe swing voters are finally willing to see the deficit reduced instead of getting a check in the mail, or a tax cut, or a new construction project in their home towns, or more funding for their favorite government programs. But congressional Republicans have very good reasons to be skeptical.

Ebohnet,

This is actually a very good post. It is informative and, therefore, has educational value. I would like to bring it over to another liberal post and give it to them to inwardly digest. Can I get your permission to do so?  Of course, full credit would be given to you.

ex animo

davidfarrar

davidfarrar

Sure, go ahead.

Okay.

Thanks.

 

ex animo

davidfarrar

Who was it?

Who was fiscally responsible, the Clinton Presidency or the Republican Congress?  In 2000, the President changed and Congress stayed the same.  Is it a coincedence that fiscal responsibility was instantly out the window?

Yes.

Bush was originally projected to have a much larger surplus than Clinton; then came 9/11 and the resulting spending.

Early Heritage data...

...showed Bush significantly outspending Clinton on domestic/discretionary/non-defense related spending during his first term.

I can't find these data at the moment, but have linked to them/written about them in the past.

With a budget left to him by Clinton.

Clinton's budget increased discretionary domestic spending by 15% in 2001. Bush cut this to 7% in 2002, and to 4% in 2003. Again, without the defense spending, we would have a much lower debt.

It started before 9/11

The Republican binge started on day one.  They did not wait until 9/11 to throw out fiscal discipline.  The first act of the new Busn congress was to repeal paygo to make way for unfunded tax cuts (for the r**c).

Of course they do...

Has anyone bothered to read the pigfat, BS packed into this bill?

What in the world is funding for STD treatment and whatever else is packed into this hunking, steaming load of kickbacks, that has anything remotely to do with stimulating our economy?

Gimme a break...that Dems swept b/c they were well funded and they have pocketts to grease--so how can you blame the Republicans for being skeptical.  For once, perhaps they're being sensible--just my 2 cents.

Living responsibly

Our nation has been running up a debt most of my life. Now it is a fever pitch. The Democrat "stimulus plan" contains large segments of funds directed toward enshrining in power political/cultural socialism. Much of the nation, in one way or another, is eating and drinking at the public trough.

Americans in general as individuals seem to have little discipline in their spending habits.

Living responsibly as individuals, families, states and nation might be a novel idea.

We know the answers!

We know the answers, but the politicians won't implement them.

  1. Cut spending to decrease outlays.
  2. Cut tax rates to increase revenue.
  3. Cut spending some more.

Other things that will work: flat tax or consumption tax instead of current system, privatize Medicare/Medicaid, "loser pays" tort system.

That's trillions of dollars PER YEAR that would erase the debt (not just deficit) in 15 years.

Give us a Conservative President and Conservative majorities in Congress, and this will all go away. The Left has created a dumbed-down free rider voting bloc that prevents any real change from happening so we keep getting more of the same.

Umm... you had that for 6 years

The GOP had the WH and Congress for the first six years of Bush's presidency.  The only 'answer' the GOP ever offered was tax cuts -- there was precious little attention or even lip service paid to the spending and deficits.  I'm not here to bash Bush, but you absolutely have to deal with the FACT that voters have very fresh memories of the deficit spending while the GOP controlled both.  Granted, now they'll likely see even worse with the Dems but it's not as simple as just claiming the GOP knows the answers.  They demonstrated otherwise for six years.

I said CONSERVATIVE.

I said CONSERVATIVE. You are making the same fallacy as all the other Media-taught electorate:

  • Republican does not equal Conservative. Conservatives are a minority in the Republican Party.
  • Bush = LBJ, he was not an ideological conservative.
  • Congress was split the first 2 years of GWB, and the leftists took over the last 2. In between, we had marked economic growth because of the tiny tax rate cuts of '03. 
  • Congress had a working majority of Conservatives from '95-'00 (not coincidentally, the same time as an economic boom and budget surplus. Last time before that that there was a working Conservative majority in Congress - '21-'28 (i.e. "The Roaring '20s"); "progressives" -- Hoover, FDR -- took over in '29... well, you know the history of the next 15 or so years.

The question is, "Why don't you want conservatives running the government?" All you get is peace and prosperity.

Hoover much?

We need deficits to restart the economy. If the economy doesn't start growing again, then the government will still suffer a defecit because of lost tax revenue, and also because of increased spending from liberal entitlement programs which already exist.

I think your analogy of a family budget is a good analogy. If every family stopped spending, or dropped it massively, then economy will be badly hurt, as is actually the case right now. Yes, it would have lower expenses, but no money would be being paid to the family. They'd be worse off. The main difference between the analogy and real life is that, in real life, the US is so large that we are the equivalent of, in the US, around 60 million families. We can't afford to not spend the money. It's truly unlucky, but deficits are the least bad option.

That's Rediculous

1) Herbert Hoover raised Taxes and Tariffs.  That's how he turned a recession into a depression.  President Obama, please take note.

2) When people have less money to spend, merchants lower their prices and come up with innovative new products.  Necessity is the mother of all invention.

3) I liked saying that so much that I'll repeat it: necessity is the mother of all invention.

1: Hoover raised taxes

1: Hoover raised taxes without raising spending, in order to balance the budget. That is, I believe, what is being suggested. FDR raised taxes even more, but he also increased spending, and this ended the Great Depression. Raising taxes alone doesn't cause a depression, as long as spending is raised by at least as much.

2: Try extending that thought a little further. If ncessecity is the mother of invention, and invention is that good, then why do we even want to get out of a recession? Why not stay in the recession forever? For that matter, why not run up a huge deficit, and then leave it to the next generation to solve; after all, that necessity will create invention when the debt comes due.

On a slightly more serious note, whatever little value comes out of this recession- and there wll be little; see below- will not be worth the pain it causes to Americans. After all, the government's purpose is to help people to be happy.

Finally, not all the invention will be good. The Great Depression caused innovotion; to be slightly more specific, it created the Nazi party, and helped the communists. In fact, it's not much of an exageration to say that it nearly destroyed democracy, capitalism, and freedom worldwide. Today, some of the "innovation" coming out of the recession has been new tarriffs (the "Buy American" provisions, the War on Cheese, etc)

Hoover raised taxes without

Hoover raised taxes without raising spending, in order to balance the budget. That is, I believe, what is being suggested. FDR raised taxes even more, but he also increased spending, and this ended the Great Depression. Raising taxes alone doesn't cause a depression, as long as spending is raised by at least as much.

You're not serious. That doesn't even make sense - historical, economic, or logical. It doesn't even make enough sense to be wrong.

 

How so?

Really, how so? Do you mean that:

- FDR and Hoover didn't increase taxes?

- Hoover did increase sepnding?

- FDR didn't increase spending?

- American GDP hadn't recovered to pre-Depression levels in 1937, until FDR caused another depression by trying to balance the budget and reducing spending?

- That gross aggregate demand doesn't matter?

- That government deficit spending can't increase gross aggregate demand?

I'm not sure what you could possibly mean by saying it lacks any "logical...sense"; please, explain.

Spending Other People's Money must stop

There are huge problems in the economy right now, it is politically required (by voters, the boss) that gov't do something.

Big temporary deficits, thru a Big Tax Cut (Tax holiday), is what Reps should be proposing.  The money should not be borrowed, it should be printed, created by fiat.

Which, usually, would cause inflation.  But not now.  The tax holiday should continue until employment is positive for a month or a quarter.

The argument against tax cuts/ rebates is that they are not efficient enough, because many folk do not spend the extra, but save it.  Only spening 17-33%, for instance.

This is double silly bogus.  First, for the mid and long term, reducing household debt is great, and will mean more growth in the future.  Second, as compared to other programs, like the pork-stimulus, tax cuts increase cash for people FAST.  Most of the pork won't be paid for in the first month, nor even quarter; nor even year 2009!

The big Bush/ Rep failure was failure to reduce spending in the post-tax cut 'good years'. 

But the real failure is that of voters.  Voters have been consistently voting for spending more of Other People's Money, which is always less efficient and more wasteful than spending one's one money.

Rep leaders must attack the culture of irresponsible greed--greed for spending & controlling Other People's Money.

In fact, it's the OPM that the voter is addicted to, and which must stop.  Only then can gov't realistically reduce spending, when voters accept it.