OxMethod Update: 10/10/2008

As one might expect, the situation continues to look grim for McCain.  I compiled this yesterday morning, so there's some data -- some good for McCain, some bad -- that is missing, but right now Obama is looking at a Clinton '92-style win.  What will this look like by November?  Who knows.  I could come up with arguments why this is like 2000, when last-minute undecideds broke heavily toward Gore, or I could come up with arguments why this is like 1980, when last-minute undecideds broke toward Reagan. 

But predicting what things will look like on election day based on what polls today are saying is a fools' errand, so I will just say this:  With a President of the same party with an approval rating in the 20s suddenly dragged into the foreground, with an economy rambling toward a severe recession or worse, after the ticket at the very best fought to a draw in three debates, and without any coherent narrative for the ticket, McCain is down by six in national polls.  Four-and-a-half if you weight the state averages (which is tricky because there are some states that don't have fresh data).  So the scenario is certainly there for McCain to win if the stock market stops plummetting and the economy stops looking catastrophic.  I don't think its likely; maybe a 1-in-4 shot.  Heck, I'm not even that certain McCain losing would be that bad a thing (see, e.g., here and here), but we've had that discussion, and no one much seems to agree.  So anyway, here's the map and the trend chart: