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LA-2: Why We Need a 435 District Strategy

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 17:45
in

Saturday is the Louisiana runoff election. There are two races still outstanding: the 4th Congressional district in the Western part of the state where John Fleming is fighting to hold on to Jim McCrery's conservative seat. And the 2nd, in the heart of New Orleans.

Normally, we wouldn't have a prayer in LA-2. Except for one thing: the incumbent is Wiliam "Freezer Cash" Jefferson. And recent polling shows Republican Joseph Cao actually has a chance to knock off Jefferson. An internal Republican poll shows Cao leading Jefferson 50-35, with Jefferson at 60 percent unfavorables (significant because Jefferson retains a base of support in the African American community). Quin Hillyer has been tracking this race for the Spectator.

This is Exhibit A of why we need a 435 district strategy. Yes, we need to be focused on our traditional targets. We saw how replacing Woody Jenkins with Bill Cassidy made all the difference in LA-6. But we can't be playing defense all the time. Congressional races can be surprisingly nonpartisan if the incumbent is corrupt or has other liabilities. We can pick off 60-40 and 70-30 Democrat seats if we focus on getting the right candidates with some level of professional staffing. (And I wouldn't be surprised if LA-2 wound up being even more lopsided than that.)

If you want to prove we can prevail in the bluest seat in Louisiana and show the world that Obama doesn't have coattails, we need to be supporting guys like Joseph Cao.

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Comments

Exactly right!

Submitted by MuskogeePolitico on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 17:56.

There is not a single congressional seat that is not winnable for the GOP, given the right candidate.

A prime example of a 70-30 Dem/Rep seat that went to a Republican would be Oklahoma's Second District (currently represented by Democrat Dan Boren). Dr. Tom Coburn, a physician with no previous political experience, won in 1994, and held the seat for six years before honoring his self-placed three-term limit. Come to think of it, at that time, the 2nd District wasn't even a 70-30 district; probably more like 80-20 or worse (currently, it's about 23% Republican).

We can, and must, contest every single congressional seat.

Mac and Palin won counties with 2 to 1 D/R

Submitted by the foundation on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 18:28.

advantages in Western PA, West Virginia, and Southwest VA.  Counties such as Fayette and Beaver County in Western PA, Mingo County in WV, and Buchanan and Dickerson  Counties haven't gone for a Republican since Nixon v. McGovern at the earliest but did on November 4th.  Yet, I bet you a dem is the congressperson for each of these areas.  These counties can be won.

but unfortunately, they also lost

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 20:27.

they also lost Montgomery, Bucks and Chester counties. We need the upscale moderates whether we like it or not

i think we'll get them back eventually

Submitted by the foundation on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 20:43.

once they get their tax bill in 2011 or 2012.  It's not just income taxes that will go back up in 2010 or 2011, capital gains tax as well.   They may also rebel against a government-run healthcare program once the quality of healthcare decreases, there are longer lines, and their taxes are raised to pay for the bill.

Do you think they would respond favorably to a push against mandatory cap-and-trade in favor of a voluntary program?  I think green jobs and cap-and-trade could be our tickets to make bigger pushes into cities such as Pittsburgh, where Obama did not improve at all over Kerry's margin in a huge dem year.  However, such concepts may play well with the moderate suburban crowd in the East and Midwest but could it backfire with the wealthy white suburbanites who trend libertarian in Colorado?

I'll have a post later on how Obama adopting a moderate foreign policy (if he ends up doing that, we don't know for sure based on the numerous explanations for his team given by the left) and how it'll actually help us.

I've always been fond

Submitted by Chris Palko on Fri, 12/05/2008 - 18:38.

of calling him "Cold Cash" Jefferson.

Seriously, it would be fantastic to take Jefferson down.  We are lucky that we had a relatively strong candidate in an urban district.  Cao would represent two things we need; first, he's a minority when we're viewed as the angry white guy party; and two, he's an urban Republican, they don't exist except on the margins of a few Sun Belt cities.  Some presence in urban areas is necessary for Republicans to come back.

Dollar Bill Is Going Down

Submitted by RachelWells on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 05:51.

I was just about to blog this myself..Great post. A reminder of the new Conservative battle ground, one take down at a time. Reorganize and reclaim! I stand with you all!

This would be teriffic...

Submitted by A.J.Nolte on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 11:12.

But let's notcount our chickens before they hatch. If he does go down, we need to make sure Kao gets some important posts in the new freshman clas. We're going to want to hold this seat in 2010. And whoever said we need urban republicans is dead on.

Not too optimistic

Submitted by the foundation on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 11:21.

about the Jefferson dollar bill seat; but Oxendine is right, Fleming needs to hold in a +7 R/D district.  Chambliss's sizable win was pretty darn good considering that there are now more dems than republicans apparently according to the exit polls in Georgia.  But there's no excuse for Fleming losing.

Drinking the diversity Kool-Aid again

Submitted by superdestroyer on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 12:48.

Once again, someone unthining looks at internal pools and believes that the Republicans can win black and Hispanic votes with the right candidate (meaning the proper level of pandering).  The problem with running republicans inhopeless districts is that it increases black and minority turnout and causes state wide Republicans to loses elections.

It would be much better if Republicans could depend upon fiscal conservative, competent, small government polticians to bring back many of the white collars, upper middle class whites who see the Republicans as a group of idiotic, intolerance facists who want to use the government to tell people how to live.

I guess the pundit wannabes believe that pandering to illiterate blacks and Hispanics will be easier than reasoning with college educated whites.

Not college educated

Submitted by NextRightNando on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 12:54.

That fact that you choose the word "illiterate" to contrast with "college educated" speaks volumes. And I don't mean that in a good way.

I know what you mean

Submitted by Big Ben 4 liberty on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 13:24.

It is not as if we can outpander the party of lies, corruption, hypocrisy and welfare-state dependence.  Those groups have been fully bought and paid for by the leftist elites.  We need thinking, rational, self-sufficient voters.  Too bad we can't make voting a privelege again instead of a "right" like Heinlein's Starship Troopers.  You know you to earn citizenship by military service or in lieu of that by owning property.  I have never been a believer in mass democracy, but civic republicanism based on elightened and informed citizens can and does work and we seen in the early days of this country.

Wow - are you aware that you said that out loud?

Submitted by NextRightNando on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 14:53.

While we are at it, why don't we stop women from voting as well - too sentimental.

In 2000 and 2004 the turnout among your ideal voter groups was much higher as a proportion of the whole, and what did it get it us? 8 years of the worst administration in living memory.

You know, SD, you are to the right of the late Strom Thurmond

Submitted by Ironman on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 14:09.

who actually thought campaigning in black neighborhoods, appointing black kids to the service academies, et al was a good way to get votes in South Carolina once Jim Crow ended.  Considering Thurmond spent about a century seeking public office, I think I'll defer to his political strategy, thank you  

Pandering does not work

Submitted by superdestroyer on Sat, 12/06/2008 - 20:09.

Thurman should have appointed qualified students to the Academies no matter their race or ethnicity.  But if he appointed unqualified blacks to pander to blacks, then he was an idiot.  Given that few blacks ever voted for him, I doubt that he really cared.

However, until someone can explain how importing millions of poor Hispanics who will eventually vote for more government, higher taxes, and less freedom, then the idea of using open borders and unlimited immigration as a blatant pander to Hispanics is a dumb idea. 

Also, the idea that  blacks and Hispanics will ever vote for Republicans when they can vote for Democrats who will tax whites and given them the money is an idiotic idea.  Either the Republicans Party is going to have to go out of business so that all of the current Republican or conservative voters will start voting in the Demoratic primary or the Republican party is going to have to get almost 100% of the white vote to survive.

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