Joseph Cao and the 435 District Strategy

Since he won his seat from beating a guy who did just that

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Patrick_Flanagan

Given the demogrpahics of LA-2, it is almost a certainity that Cao will get to serve a single term and then lose is re-eletion campaign in a landslide.  Less than 30K voted in this run off election.   It will not happen again.  All the Democrats get to do if a find a local black politician who had not been involved in a scandal and the 75% of the district that is black is automatically vote for him.

Before everyone overreads the election, please remember the demographics of the situation.

For one thing, the Vietnamese are the Cubans of Asia, one of the two immigrant groups in American history that immediately identified with the Republican Party.  While other Asian-American groups are somewhat Democratic, the Vietnamese are strongly Republican.

Now Louisiana of all places has two strong Asian Republicans in office.  This is how we start to build credibility with minority communities, by making them some of the faces of the party.  Cao likely can't hold onto this seat for long, but he now has a platform to launch himself into statewide office.

Jefferson was the poster child for congressional corruption, but with a gift like that, Cao still needed every vote.

The local Democrats were handcuffed because Jefferson won the primary, but there is no way they were happy to have him as a candidate.  Look for a fresh face next cycle, and a much tougher run for Cao.  I'll be very surprised if he holds the seat;.

There are no counties in Louisiana.  We call them parishes.  And Joseph Cao was well acquainted with the local GOP in Orleans and Jefferson parishes.  So, if you want to do what he did, you need to start calling your counties parishes and to stop going willy-nilly down the blandly boring and uncreative track of the other 49 states.

Is that, a month after one of our worst drubbings in history an incumbent Democrat, no matter how corrupt, actually fell in an election with a three to one registration advantage.

I think Cao can hold the seat, but he'll have to work three times as hard as the average congressman to do it. The short answer is "constituent services". He needs to build a reputation--and quickly--for getting stuff done for his constituents. This doesn't necessarily mean earmarks (though if he can get the coastal registration funding it will help). There are lots of things a congressman can do without spending a dime. Cao is going to need professional, compitent staff in his district offices who can quickly develop a reputation for being accessible and effective. So, if people start thinking him not as "that guy who beat the black guy" but "that guy who helped my cousin with x" or "my sister's neighbor with Y" he will have a chance.

Let's also keep in mind that, by demographics alone, he must've gotten a much higher percentage of the African-American vote than the national GOP. I think the district is like 63 percent African-American. If he can get a third of this percentage in his next election, then, win or lose, he'll have done something invaluable for the GOP in New Orleans.

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