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Defending Rush, Steele, and Jindal
These haven't been the best couple of weeks for Rush Limbaugh, Michael Steele, or Bobby Jindal. (OK, let's carve out a possible exception for Limbaugh.)
What these three people have in common is that they're all significant figures who have taken fire from different elements of the conservative movement at the behest of the Obama White House and the Kos/TPM/Olbermann triangle.
It's time this stopped.
Conservatives need to decide who we want to see succeed and who we want to see fail. We then need to calibrate our reactions to the inevitable missteps from either camp accordingly. If someone we want to succeed comes under attack, we hold our fire and close ranks -- unless it's clear they've become a long-term liability. If it's someone we want to see fail -- like Jim Bunning -- we unload until they get off the stage.
Limbaugh, Steele, and Jindal are all important personalities that we should all want to see succeed. The larger and more influential Rush's audience, the more mobilized the base will be against Obama. This has nothing to do with Rush exerting policy leadership over the GOP -- and everything to do with Rush as a popularizer of conservative principles and a rallying point for opposition. The best reaction to the Limbaugh "controversy" is for GOP politicians to avoid it entirely -- while Rush's audience grows and grows.
Michael Steele made a tactical mistake in getting drawn into this argument, but I still want him to be a successful RNC Chairman. Steele was elected Chairman as a fresh face and a reformer, a basic orientation the Republican Party will need to embrace in 2010. He remains one of the most compelling public faces of the party. If I were a Democrat, I would rejoice if Michael Steele were somehow made less relevant. Moreover, his challenge of the party's blind support for incumbents -- conservatives' #1 frustration with the RNC -- is probably more relevant to his leadership as Chairman than his Rush comments.
And some conservatives have gleefully joined in on the pile-on against Bobby Jindal for his delivery of the non-SOTU response and stayed mostly silent when it came time to counter the left's coordinated attack against Jindal's leadership during Katrina.
Taking a step back, and it's easy to see why the Obama team must be rejoicing. Some of the Republican Party's most charismatic and influential voices are being attacked -- from within. Conservatives appear flailing and divided, embroiled in controversies against the leading talk show host, the party chairman, and one of the party's rising stars.
I could deal with the "flailing and divisive" narrative if it were aimed at public embarrassments, like Bunning, or against more expendable, transactional pols -- people whose removal would not hurt the cause and in fact could help it.
We should be highly vigilant -- however -- when the attacks are aimed at people who would be significant public scalps for the Democrats, and who are not easily replaced.
At some level, we have to project a basic level of confidence in the people we choose to elevate -- whether it's on the radio, at the RNC, or in the statehouses -- especially if these are the kind of people we say we want -- younger, aggressive, reformers, etc. If we are too eager to throw people like Steele and Jindal under the bus when we were celebrating them not so long ago, conservatives overall appear indecisive and uncertain in their leadership.
Ultimately, the journey out of the wilderness won't happen without a leader. We will ultimately have to learn how to get on the bus with somebody, warts and all. This is what a mature movement did with Reagan. And it's what the left did with Obama. I'm not pronouncing anyone the leader right now, but if we fall into the left's trap of delegitimizing important conservatives and potential rising stars from the get-go, we will never know what it is like to have that kind of leadership because only the utterly mediocre will be let through the netroots/MSM filter of Republican leadership.
- Patrick Ruffini's blog
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Comments
Let's go Joe
Well, Patrick, if I would like too see any GOP surrogate succeed, I'll start with Joe the Plumber!!!
Interesting post, it helps me
Interesting post, it helps me in my research, thanks!
drugstore | хрумер
Divide and conquer can work for Reps, too.
Indeed. The Dems are practicing the divide and conquer strategy to great success these days and Reps are making it way too easy for them to succeed. The only defense is to be united and take the offense by seeking ways to drive wedges between the ranks of the opposition. Given who they are and what they are doing, this ought to be both easy and very satisfying.
Nutty conspiricy theories
Ruffini really went out on a limb today:
Does this mean uber puppetmaster Soros forced David Brooks to denounce Limbaugh? More likely Brooks saw how much damage Limbaugh was doing to the Republican brand and tried to put a stop to it. And if you think left wing blogs take orders from the White House, you haven't been reading them.
Bill Clinton took the White House by repudiating extremist elements in his own party. Republicans should find the courage to do the same.
Good point, Pat.
But I think you are exaggerating the media's impact on the body politic. Most people I have talked to see these types of stories as simple panache, something we on the right have long been accustomed to from the left press.
Of course -- and I hate to keep sounding like a broken record here -- if the party gave its membership its voice. Allowed them to speak and to be accurately heard, we wouldn't have to guess or be bothered what the left press says. But, hey, that's just me.
What is really hurting the Republican cause is our fellow Republican Congressmen and women selling out to the new socialist order.
ex animo
davidfarrar
What does "heard accurately" mean?
David,
I have no idea what this means:
JS, I am glad you ask.
Unfortunately, I haven't the time now to reply as completely as I think your question calls for. But let me just say, now for the first time in history, as Newt Gingrich pointed out in his GOP TECH SUMMIT, we have a powerful enough two-way communicative tool to allow us to contemplate direct democracy. However, that is not what I am proposing by any means. What I am proposing is that the party use their new website design to allow all Republican party members who wish to speak to do so on their website. And by applying effective deliberative groupware, allow ideas to move upwards according to their merit to form an accurate consensus of what the party, as a whole, actually supports. And finally, to provide transparency to this process that would allow all to verify those results and to assure themselves of the accuracy of the process.
What I meant to imply by this statement is that the more the party allows the public to speak, and be accurately be heard, a public that is largely right of center, it will be harder for the liberal press to influence the body as a whole.
Please take note: I never said this would be easy. But it can be done.
And lastly, once people are assured that the web-effort of the Republican party accurately reflects their voices, all will want a voice, all will want to speak, and all will want to be heard. Wouldn't you?
But, as I said; I will elaborate on the process later...for now, please click here.
ex animo
davidfarrar
Up with Jindal - a great guy
Up with Jindal - a great guy who merely had a stumble.
Down with Steele - I don't know what to say about him. He's not helping.
Down with Rush - Thrice divorced, bombastic, pill popper. Yeah he's smart, but no role model and not appealing to the other 75% of america that Reps need to be back in power. The people who he now appeals to will always be republican.
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None of these guys should be defended. Rush is the last guy on earth who needs someone's defence. And as for the other two, they either toughen up or get out of the way. Although, I think Jindal should be cultivated by the party. Give him time. He's at least VP material at some point.
It's mainly Rush's fault, actually
The Limbaugh vs. Steele controversy would have been less embarrassing to the GOP if Rush had complained in private as opposed to criticizing Steele in public.
Michael Steele made a mistake. Big deal. Anyone can make a mistake. But Rush could have defused the whole thing by just laughing at the entire thing, while stating that Steele contacted him and explained what he meant, and that no offense was intended (or taken) by anybody.
Axelrod issued a somewhat provocative statement, that Steele & co. are mere puppets who immediately have to apologize to Limbaugh if they deviate too far from "the party line". Limbaugh could have proved him wrong by showing some intra-GOP magnamity...but I guess if would have hurt his ratings too much.
MARCU$
Delegitimizing Important Conservatives
..Patrick, it's not the Left that's doing it, it's the "Important Conservatives" who are doing it to each other.
I know you try to follow Reagan's 11th Commandment, but until someone has the stones to tell Steele to STFU and do his job, and tells Limbaugh to stick to "entertaining"and not assume he is running the Party, GOP is going to be stuck in neutral, while sliding backwards down a slippery slope.
Have you seen the current poll numbers for the Boehner-McConnell-Limbaugh GOP? Have you seen the demographic changes that are showing the GOP falling further behind in every demo, and catastrophically behind among the 18-34?
Something's gotta change, and soon.
My letter to my RNC Committeepeople
When I first heard that some of the RNC were calling for Steele's resignment already, I wrote this letter to my Committeepeople:
I understand that some RNC committeepersons are calling for Michael Steele's resignation, and saying that his conflicts with other prominent conservatives are an embarassment to the image of the party. I think they are way off-base. Worrying about our image with the Party in the shape it's in is like worrying about the paint on the house when the foundation has been eroded. Pretty much the only thing that Republicans are agreeing on right now is that we don't want Obama's Progressivism. If we are going to win in 2010 and 2012, we have to have better organization, a plan to govern conservatively, and that organization and plan will have to be developed through much debate. Debate between Michael Steele, Newt Gingrich, and Rush Limbaugh are healthy. It will get us a better plan for the future.
Michael Steele wouldn't have been my choice for RNC chair, but he is a good one. Let's give him a shot.
Well said Pat
And one of your finest pieces IMO.
Your Hypocrisy is exhausting
Where was all this concern about 'eating our own' when Gov. Palin was being pummeled by the right's 'best and brightest', including yourself? If there was ever a rising star in the party that was unfairly treated it was/is her. In the end it all comes down to your inability to respect/accept anyone who doesn't have just the right education or accent. Palin was and is still one of the most popular Gov. in the country. She has an incredible personal story and has been successful in governing. She is also the ONLY Republican with a true 'presence' capable of starting a wildfire in the party, whether you like it or not. The line to shake her hand at the Alfalfa dinner was longer than Obamas. A person with that type of charisma and competence comes around once every 25 years, and yet, her 'warts' are to many to be overlooked? Jindal, brilliant as he is, couldn't cause a spark in a match factory.
vengeful, vindictive and spiteful.
isn't my definition of competence.
participating in a witchhunt instead of seeking more... governmental as opposed to spiritual solutions to a drug problem? mondo crazy lady.
The same point here. teletext
The same point here. teletext holidays - lanzarote weather - waterless cookware - calphalon nonstick
Good Post. I agree.
Good Post. I agree.
I was pro-Palin
and think that Palin was the first casualty of exactly this sort of media witchhunt aided and abetted by Beltway conservatives.
I repeatedly defended Palin during and after her VP run. Please produce any links you think show otherwise. You won't find any.
Selling a bridge
Questions: will you stupulate that Sarah Palin supported the Bridge to Nowhere before she opposed it? Will you stipulate that when asked which newspapers she reads, she couldn't name one? Will you stipulate that running the Alaska National Guard has nothing to do with foreign policy?
Coordinated attack vs. insistance on the facts
I guess that this group of conservatives recongize that digging up the real facts and confronting the "mis-speaker" with them is a legitimate function of journalism.
Jindal himself has now admitted that a key portion of his response speech was not true.
To recap: In the now-infamous Katrina boats story, Jindal claimed that he was in the moment with Sheriff Lee, the two men threatening civil disobedience if those damn federal bureaucrats wouldn't get out of their way. But it turns out that Jindal was not actually in the room when Sheriff Lee had his historic conversation. He apparently heard about the story later. For all I know, he was in the area and being a good, active congressman during Hurricane Katrina. But I also know that his boats story was a massive exaggeration (to put it kindly) and he has admitted as much.
So: why should those conservatives squander their integrity to defend him?
More Left-wing Disinfo
Read it and weep (and stop spreading lies while you're at it):
"Bobby and I walked into Harry Lee’s office – he’s yelling on the phone about a decision he’s already made," Jindal chief of staff Timmy Teepell recalled. "He’s saying, 'This is a decision I made, and if you don’t like it you can come and arrest me.'"
Jindal was there when Lee had his conversation on the phone. He didn't find someone to fly him from DC into the eye of Hurricane Katrina. When Jindal said the events took place "during Katrina" he meant that they occured during the aftermath of Katrina -- or "several days later". It only takes a modicum of common sense to understand this without it being explained -- Of course they weren't sending boats out to rescue people in the middle of the storm! -- so I can see why left-wingers can't get it through their skulls.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0209/Jindal_aide_Story_was_set_after_Katrina.html?showall
Who should I believe - A.C. Hall or my own lyin' ears?
The point of Jindal's story was that his support for the sheriff helped ensure the rescue went ahead. But it turns out Jindal wasn't there at the key moment, and played no role in making the rescue happen.
Here is what Jindal said in his speech:
The meaning is clear: Jindal was in the moment with Sheriff Lee, the two men threatening civil disobedience if those damn federal bureaucrats wouldn't get out of their way
Problem is, through the magic of the internets, people where very quickly able to establish that Sheriff Lee's more contemperanous account of the events didn't agree with Jindal's. Specifically, Lee said he did not find out untill days later that there had been a bureaucratic hold-up. He said this in 2005 on "Larry King" (emphasis mine):
And now Politico is reporting that a Jindal aide has come out and said:
So abundantly clear - when he told that little story, he "didn't intend to imply" that it really happened.
But wait, there is more:
On September 8, the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Jindal detailing how "[i]n Katrina's wake, red tape too often trumped common sense." Jindal listed several anecdotes to illustrate the problem, including one that involved a sheriff, and another about a boat evacuation. But nothing that resembled the Lee story he told the nation. A pretty curious omission, don't you think?
And in 2008, Jindal told Human Events:
Jindal talked to the sheriff after the fact, he wasn't in his office during the moment of crisis.
Limbaugh
Good Post and I agree with most of everything you have said except with regards to Limbaugh. Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer and I do not mean that as an insult. Radio is what he does for a living. Rush Limbaugh is a conservative in the same way William F. Buckley was a conservative. But William Buckley dealt with specific policy issues rather than radio and online wit and sarcasm. Very different men. If Rush Limbaugh were to delve into health care policy or discussing International Monetary Fund policy in the Sudan he would not have the audience he now has. He is a unique personality that draws an audience to him because of his wit and sarcasm.
he is a manufactured personality
that draws an audience based on promulgating hate.
Have you listened to Father Coughlin recently?
Why do democrats care?
Juan Williams on Fox News Sunday seemed very worried about who was leading the Republicans.
He is a liberal. Why should he care?
liberals like ideas
hate radio provides none.
therefore, it upsets us, on a deep and fundamental level.
What rights does a state have, vis a vis a corporation that dwells within, nearby, or in multiple states? (by state, i mean country)
bull
Liberals like THEIR ideas and their isn't anything wrong with that. But I find it bizarre that they think they actually like intellectual debates (granted conservatives don't either). Every center left liberal I know hates being called a liberal even if they are liberal. For some reason everyone wants to be moderate (well unless your really liberal than your progressive). It just makes it seem like you like listening to all sides of the debate.
This whole angry right thing is funny even if it is true. Mostly it's funny because liberals are perfectly doing exactly what the right did to them the last decade. Who didn't laugh at liberals before 2006. Hell fatass Moore and crazy Sheehan where great spokes people (for the GOP that is). You can't have crazies running the ship. It's why Moore was quiet the last two years and Sheehan is only followed by the Greens (who contnued to blow opporunity after opporuntiy).
For some reason liberals here and elsewhere and also conservatives have forgotten just how long the Democrats were in the wilderness. This is really the first liberal president since LBJ, that's 40 years! In 2004 people where asking what they could to make a comeback. In 1984 or 88 did people think Dems had a chance after the trouncing they got each election? No. This stuff is cyclical but it does take time. We probably are in a liberal/big gov't era again. That sucks for conservatives but there are opporunties to refocus and to come back better than before. But it doesn't happen overnight.
For now we have to take the lumps, Democrats and liberals have every right to laugh and mock, not like the GOP didn't do it to them. But sooner or later they wouldn't be laughing anymore.
I'm a classical liberal, in the vein of Adam Smith
and I am DAMN proud of it! If I didn't like debates, I wouldn't be here, puchela.
Moore and Sheehan were crazy, or at least as close to it. Parties succeed when they can marginalize the crazies like Limbaugh.
The last liberal president was Nixon -- ever heard of the EPA? ;-)
We're in a liberal/big gov't era because the conservative "free market" ideology RUINED EVERYTHING and involved most americans in the ponzi scam that is wall street. I dont' especially have to liek it.
And your last point is right on target.
We should talk more, you seem sane! (I'm glad to not be called a socialistic fascist, these days...)
The cirular firing squad
The reason I ask these questions is because a lot of Americans are asking the same questions, who are the republicans now? By trying to hold the base and not give a rats ass about the rest of America except for capitalists and religious zealots the canyon seems to grow increasingly wider. I believe that the “hope you fail” crowd has fostered and projected a far deeper meaning then most conservatives believe or understand. It was a slap in the face to many, many Americans who are struggling to make ends meet and to get by every week! It demonstrated a true visceral hatred of “those people” who do not think like us!!! Lord help you if the economy turns around, because then it will be the party of “hope” Vs the party of “hope you fail” who will win that fight?--lol
agreed
There's no certainty that Obama will fail (although some here think that is the case). Remember, Clinton in the first term was drowning by his second year, and pulled about a second term. I'm sure Obama sees the same thing: go full speed ahead despte the polls until end of year 2 and then tack hard to the center.
If he is successfull, there's nothing Republicans can do. I like Jindal, but he's not ready. Palin has charisma, but something amazing will have to happen for her to gain credibility on the national level again. Who else is there? The republican leadership is on the defensive, with a very popular and smart president. As far as I'm concerned, 2012 is for Dems to loose.
So have these sweeping arguements now. Waiting for someone to loose is a horrible strategy. In fact, it's the lack of one. It's only my opinion, but Republicans need to contront the ugly part of the party-- intolorance on many, many levels. Including each other.
agree about palin, disagree about jindal
he did an interview with time magazine and i was very impressed. he is a smart guy, and i think he can overcome one bad speech if he can get away from the limbaugh mess and just be himself.
If you are going to take a
If you are going to take a principled stand on the left end of the see-saw in my home state of Alabama, you had better be heavy-duty and hard-core about it. We are THE most conservative state in most recent polls. More than even Utah and Idaho. teva sandalen - zwaarden sandalen - buffalo schuhe - deichmann schuhe
The Next Right?
It appears that The Next Right is nothing more than the old Rockefeller-Ford-Bush-wing of the old Republican Party resurrecting itself in hopes of making the Party irrelevant again. Have at it! Your "leadership" failed us the last 6 years; and I have no reason to believe that you won't continue. While you're hand wringing, the Conservatives will be saving the country -- again! Our purge of the last 2 years of the party's linguini-spined effetes will continue unabated, and I hope you find an equally irrelevant home as "moderate" Democrats.
39 seats in the senate
and you have no power. enjoy the party without spector!
Good riddance!
We are purging the dead wood (i.e. "moderates") to start over. I'd rather have 40 principled Conservatives than 60 RINOs with wet fingers in the air. Don't let the door hit you in the skirt on the way out.
Let's have us a good old fashioned purge!
Here's a great blueprint for how to have a classic purge. Hope it goes well for you.
From Rev. Martin Niemöller
If there are guys bigger than you who think they are truer conservatives than you, we might wake up one morning and find we now have 39 principled Conservatives instead of 40.
Sheesh!
The good Rev. was talking about you(!) -- the "moderates" -- too afraid of their own shadows to take a principled stand on anything.
I am not talking about taking "moderates" to gas chambers -- that would be your buddies the Leftists. I just want you out of power in the Party so Conservatives can take over and win again. This time, no prissy "moderates" in leadership.
You elitists aren't just castrated but adolescent. You sure you aren't leftists? I see a pattern emerging. You'll roll over and defend anyone but your own, and Conservatives in particular.
Joe you've got me all wrong.
Joe C, I didn't want to leave you with the impression that I was a squishy moderate. If Barack Obama looked over Dennis Kucinich's left shoulder, he might see me in the distance, standing far behind Keith Olbermann, if he had a really powerful telescope, and the light rays were properly bent by passing through Michael Moore's gravitational field.
If you are going to take a principled stand on the left end of the see-saw in my home state of Alabama, you had better be heavy-duty and hard-core about it. We are THE most conservative state in most recent polls. More than even Utah and Idaho.
An example groveling Republicans could follow
You want an example of "linguini-spined effetes"? Look no further than all the GOP Representatives and Senators and to the party chairman himself all of whom would rather pee in their pants than confront and denounce the vile tactics of their leader Limbaugh. The only person who has had the courage to call the intolerant wingnuts into question is 24-year-old Meghan McCain. Talk about a bunch of wimps. If the GOP can't stand up to Limbaugh, how can they stand up to Al Qaeda or to the Taliban?
I think I agree with you...
in general, with the exception of Rush Limbaugh. It is certainly not a good idea to quash our rising leaders just as they're getting started, and the impetuousness in the reactions to some of the mistakes these "rising stars" have made reveal a jitteriness that isn't conducive to good decision-making. At the same time, people should feel free to express criticism, to say, for example: JIndal's speech wasn't all that great but he's still a promising young leader that we support. Maintaining openness at this point, I think, is just as important as not panicking and jettisoning our nascent leaders,
I differ with you, though, on Rush Limbaugh. In this respect, no one is acting on the bidding of Obama. There is a legitimate split within the conservative movement. No, Rush Limbaugh is not the intellectual equivalent of Joe the Plumber, but he's arguably more offensive and undoubtedly, in my opinion, far more damaging to the party's prospects right now. I don't feel the need to defend Limbaugh precisely because he is an entertainer: he represents his own interests, not necessarily the interests of the party or the movement, which he proves when he does things like undermining Michael Steele. Why should Steele have to apologize to Limbaugh, when he only said the same thing you argued, that he is an entertainer. Let Limbaugh say whatever he wants, but our leaders and politicians would indeed be best served to ignore him, not to justify or defend what he says, especially when it runs counter to the interests of the party.
I believe Patrick addressed this
When you say:
I think that the post above basically says the same thing:
Nate gives Pat some slum love.
Patrick's post got linked this afternoon on Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com.
Nate says that if Tedisco loses NY-20 on March 31, the long knives come out for Chairman Steele.
The Next Step
Having launched the attacks on those who disagree, we have the next step: From AFP
"US President Barack Obama mustered his powerful campaign army on Monday, calling on his millions of supporters to lobby on behalf of his budget and economic plan."
Actually, that's not quite what they are asking for. The vid at barackobama.com on The Pledge Project includes knocking on doors and telephoning people to get them to pledge.
Or, as they say: "the largest grassroots movement in history"
Are the R's ready for this? Maybe it will fail, or maybe we'll all have progressive activists at our door asking us to pledge...kinda like a petition drive.
Yes, as they say neighborhood by neighborhood.
Shooting your own, even if
you don't agree with some of what they stand for, is a recipe for disaster.
It's not only Republicans who shoot at their own. Look how in the last presidential campaign the left and the MSM took out the Clintons, diminishing the stature of both of them. Bill was made to look like a racist and a bumbler. His successes as president are no longer touted. Hillary was made to look like an incompetent liar. It was something the right could never have pulled off, because these are false caricatures trumped up only for political benefit. Sadly for the Clintons, their positives were ignored or turned into negatives. (During the campaign I wrote against the mean-spirited bias in the press and on the left against them even though as a conservative I disagree with many of their political positions.)
Republicans have a number of possible presidential candidates. Who do the Democrats have besides Barack Obama? Who are the up and comers? Certainly not the historical likely place--the VP; not the Democratic leadership in the House or Senate.
For this election there were only two viable Democratic candidates. Fortunately for Republicans, Democrats made sure only one survived. There were three or four survivors for the Republicans with stars like Palin and Jindal shooting into view as additional possibilities for the next round.
Shooting your own is not smart, but it is part of amateurish politics in both the Republican and Democratic ranks. Fortunately for us, the Democrats have been much more effective in taking out their stars. Even in the also ran category. McCain is slowly gaining back national political stature. Kerry never did.
Plenty of possibles
Republicans have a number of possible presidential candidates. Who do the Democrats have besides Barack Obama? Who are the up and comers? Certainly not the historical likely place--the VP; not the Democratic leadership in the House or Senate.
You're confusing the Democrats with the true party of primogenitor, the GOP. The Reps love order, and will always pick a VP because he is next in line. Democrats love chaos and, tend to go for unknown governors.
I can list you at least a half dozen possible Dem presidential candidates. Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Claire McKaskil, Kathleen Sebelius, Harold Ford Jr., Wesley Clark, Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack, Hillary Clinton. And that's without cheating and using Google where I'm sure there are a dozen more who could be ready by 2016 if they want.
But anyone could be ready by 2016. By this point in the Bush presidency Barack Obama was a former Illinois state legislator, who had just lost his bid for US House to Bobby Rush. He was so low on the Democratic totem pole that he could not get issued floor pass credentials for the 2000 Democratic Convention.
That's not entirely true
While I agree with your list (well not Clark, hell no he has a chance or is upincoming) and could add to it too, I disagree with the whole order/chaos thing. It probably only seems that way because GOP has held office so often that the VP has traditionally been the next candidate so it's seems orderly.
This year wasn't as divided as the Dems but it was a three man race for much of it and each candidate held a faction within the party. That wasn't orderly and I still feel they never really came together. Also W was never supposed to be the next in line, he may be a Bush but everyone thought it would be Jeb. Dole for sure fits the bill of orderly next in line but Reagan was an unknown (politically) until his 64 speech. And going even farther back Goldwater wasn't assured next in line, it was supposed to be a tough battle between him and Rockefeller until his divorce. Other than that it's all VPs.
I will grant you that Dems go for much more unknown (Carter, Clinton and Obama) but that seems to be when they win. Unlike Kerry and if Hart wouldn't have had that affair he was all but assured next in line in 88.
hart was still an outsider, i believe.
just like Biden, who got sunk for stupid gaffes.
W only got elected because many people thought they were voting for his father in the primary.
Republicans really do have the authoritarian personalities in their party (20% of us pop, so I'm not saying everybody). this has a lot to do with why outsiders don't win.
Who would you say the three candidates were? (romney, mccain, sure... who's the third?)
A distant third, but still a good show.
Huckabee stayed in it way longer than anyone thought he would have. I believe he even outlasted Romney technically. But it was obvious Huckabee had quit way before he announced he was pulling out of the race.
So even though Huck was never a factor to win it, you can make the argument that he decided the winner. Going into South Carolina McCain and Romney were still viable. If I remember correctly McCain had two narrow victories with Romney in close second, Iowa and NH. If Huckabee pulls out before South Carolina and tells all his conservative christian voters to go for Romney, Mitt might have pulled a victory out of SC.
As it was, Huck and Mitt split the right wing christian vote enough for McCain to win it with the moderates. Mitt could then take the mojo from the SC victory into MI where his Dad was once guv, and win there instead of narrowly losing to McCain. If Mitt could have taken a win in SC and MI into Super Tuesday he might have prevailed against McCain. But a collection of "silver medals" was never going to do it.
A "spoiler" candidate is a terrible way to lose it. I'm a liberal Democrat, and I would never say that Clinton beat Poppy Bush. Perot did that. And you'll never convince me it wasn't a personal vendetta going back to when George was CIA Director and wouldn't go back and look for our MIA's in Viet Nam.
Wasn't Gore a VP?
Wasn't Gore a VP?
Also ran
Nobody has yet mentioned another unknown Democratic governor, Mike Dukakis. Or the ultimate in "Surely, it must be my turn by now" Republican presidents, Richard Nixon.
Finding these historical trends in presidential politics is fun. But in fairness to the rules of statistics, it's always going to be a series of anecdotes that we squeeze into whatever trend we are trying to sell. The sample size is too small to ever draw a true statistically significant correlation. And forget about making a prediction. Even if your prediction hits, it could very easily be due to dumb random chance.
In presidential politics, everyone looks for the "bellwhether" states. And usually even the bellwhethers have that one example from 19?? where they blew it. Has anyone ever calculated the list of dunce states that seem to get it wrong almost everytime?
Also, I forgot to include a Democratic governor who could have tremendous crossover appeal for Independents and Republicans, Brian Schweitzer. Reelected by huge margins in the red state of Montana.
Hart was next in line in 88
That was why you got an unknown Dukakis because of Hart's affair. And Nixon was a former VP (although he had to get a second chance for it). But I totally agree that the sample size is too small.
Schweitzer isn't bad although calling Montana red anymore is a stretch, it's more purple state now (2 Dem Senators, Dem Gov, Dem led State Sen) almost on the verge of being blue. Which really points out the current problem of the GOP.
I like Jon Huntsman on the GOP side even if he is from a really red state.