The Public Option: Stakes for the Vampire

With a reported bump in public support for some variation on Obamacare after the President’s speech last week, there is no time to rest. Rather, it’s time to drive stakes into the heart of the “public option” vampire. And stakes we shall provide. The following are solid reasons why no version of the public option must be resurrected:

  1. A government “competitor” can’t go out of business when it fails. Failing government entities only drains resources from more productive places—not to mention from taxpayers. (Witness the Postal Service.) The left has been particularly disingenuous with this constant doublespeak about the public options offering “competition and choice.” This is another example of the left trying cleverly to co-opt the language of the right. Call the b.s.  
  2. Sooner or later any public option will be subsidized by the government. This will put private companies at a competitive disadvantage, which is not only unfair, but threatens the private market so many Americans currently enjoy (despite all the cost-drivers created by government).
  3. A public option will create a new set of special interests and dependents. These supplicants will be beholden to the Democrats and Barack Obama. This is why government programs never go away. People who don’t think this is really about buying their power with our tax dollars are kidding themselves.
  4. Co-ops are a ruse. We already have non-profit health insurance companies with their own special place in the tax code. They’re called Blue Cross Blue Shield. Talk of co-ops is but a ruse to reawaken the vampire. Co-ops too must be killed.
  5. A public option will have different rules to play by.That’s not fair.  Believe it or not, the regulations and mandates that make premiums unaffordable in places like MA, NJ and NY are not as bad at the federal level. So the regulatory framework for the public option would be more favorable than for insurance companies in most states. Another reason private insurers would die off—preparing the way for a complete government takeover of healthcare.

There are fundamental asymmetries between government and private companies. Those asymmetries make government provision of most goods and services unfair and illiberal. Let’s take these stakes and kill the public option. (Lest cries of “you have no proposal” go up from the Left, this should keep you busy. And this.)

(Note: Baucuscare – i.e. Obamacare Plan B – has most of the elements of the failed Massachusetts plan. The MA plan jockeys for most expensive in the country with NJ and NY. All are more expensive due to regs Baucus is proposing for the whole country.) 

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Comments

I'll play devil's advocate.

I'll play devil's advocate. I'm not big on the Obama plan, but there is a logic, within it, to the "public option."

The idea behind the "public option" is cost containment. It's meant to be a non-profit entity that would exert pressure on private insurers to shape up, and stop their currently insane profiteering on human misery. Between 2000 and 2007, the profits of the 10 largest publicly traded health insurance companies increased an incredible 428%. And the coverage offered through these plans has gotten progressively worse--some of it is "coverage" in name only. As is often noted, health care expenses have been the #1 cause of personal bankruptcies for years. In 2007, it accounted for 62% of them, and 80% of those were from people who had insurance. Or, to be more precise, thought they did.

A public option would put private insurers at a competitive disadvantage, but not because of any government funding--Obama has been very clear that his public option has to pay for itself. It would be avantaged by being non-profit. That's the point of it. To pressure private insurers to improve coverage offered, and cut costs for that coverage. That's competition, no matter how one spins it. One can argue, of course, that private insurers simply can't compete with a non-profit entity, and that may be true. There is, however, a lot of wiggle-room--if one ever needs to "wiggle" through the Grand Canyon--between "non-profit" and the sort of profits these companies have been pulling down for decades. These companies also have it in their power to bring down the cost of health care in general, and will, presumably, exert it, if faced with a serious public option.

A correction: Premiums haven't been made unaffordable in Massachusetts because of their health reform efforts. Those reform efforts were launched as a response to the private sector making those premiums unaffordable.

It's worth noting, also, that all of this is academic. There isn't going to be a "public option," and there aren't going to be any real reforms. Being Americans and rather dumb about such things, we won't push for what we need, even what we want. We'll let it all collapse before we'll do anything about it.

To the Devil's Advocate (classic liberal)

1. My research turns up the fact that the profit margins of insurers are quite low (3.5%) hardly demonic for entities that pay corporate taxes:  But so what? If they are for-profit, they are supposed to make profits. Profits are an indicator (and an incentive to ensure) that value is being created. Insuring people with preexisting conditions is not always wise, but there is risk pooling and even government high risk pools to mitigate the associated costs. 

2. You admit that a public option would put companies at a competitive disadvantage. Whether this is due to subsidy or other asymmetries I name, it doesn't matter. AND YET, in what universe do you foresee a government entity going out of business? That's what it would mean for the public option to exist without subsidies! Obama may promise a lot of things, as politicians do, but he can't revoke economic laws. Fed Ex, the public schools and other government entities wouldn't have a chance without subsidies. Besides, what prevents progressives or conscientious social entrepreneurs from starting competitive private non-profits now? Oh, that would be barriers to entry caused by in-state monopolies, state and federal regulation and other government barriers instituted by government in collusion with special interests (include the insurance industry).

3.  The combined profits of all private insurance companies would not make a dent, A DENT, in the cost problem. It's going to require deregulation, interestate competition, market reforms and other measures that will make Americans less addicted to copays. Go read David Goldhill's Atlantic piece and come back to me.

4. Finally, your Mass. "correction" just needs to be corrected. MA Premiums have tripled SINCE the passage of the Massechusetts reforms. Conspicuously, they join only three other states that have guaranteed issue and/or community rating. All of these states have exorbitant and unaffordable premiums due to these, the Left's, beloved mandates. You can lie to yourself and this audience till doomsday, but it appears your goal is to drive up premiums so you can scream for single payer. In my state, we have coverage mandates, but at least we don't have these mandates. Our insurance premiums in NC at least pass the "cigarette test." ...No prize for you today, ciassic, but thanks for playing...

Two points

First, industry-to-industry comparisions of profit margins are meaningless - otherwise, why would anyone ever launch a new venture in one of the lower ranked industries? 3.5% may sound low, but 3.5% of billions of dollars still adds up to a big number, as you will see below. Their margins may be low, but their ROE and their total profits are quite large.

Second, the combined profits of all private insurance companies do indeed make a big dent, A BIG DENT, in the cost problem. For starters, have a look at this list: these 13 companies had profits of $13  Billion in 2008, up from $10 Billion just two years ago.

But the bigger issue is that generate these profits, they increase the overhead and administrative burden on everyone else in the system. Every practice has to hire staff just to deal with the BS and run around that insurance company dishes out.

Per capita health care costs in the US are about twice as high as they are for other OECD countires, without a corresponding improvement in health care outcomes.

The entire health system in Canada has fewer workers to serve its population of 27 million than Blue Cross requires to service just 2.7 million customers in New England.

Something else

It's also worth noting, re: profit margins, that the measure of "profit" doesn't include the revenue they use for things like excessive executive compensation (which is a relatively small, but still noteworthy chunk), marketing (which is a huge chunk, as high as 14-25% of all revenues) and lobbying the government (CNN recently reported that all health care industries had spent nearly $400 million this year on lobbying, but didn't offer a current breakdown of the insurance industries' percentage of this).

With regard to Massachusetts, I'd certainly never hold up what was done there as any sort of thing to be emulated--devil's advocate, remember? By pretty much all reports, it's a mess. I was only noting that insurance premiums in the state were already unaffordable before the reform efforts.

Insurance companies have many problems...

... but these aren't the real problems.

On marketing and lobbying: Companies spend money on marketing and lobbying because they expect they will make more money than they spend.  If marketing wasn't pulling its weight, some firms would try to live without it, succeed, and then beat the competition.

Same reason I don't buy the claim that women make less money for the same work -- if they reliably did so, any thinking businessperson would hire only women and crush the competition by undercutting them on labor costs.

Those companies lobby because the return on investment is spectacular: the government has the power to kill their competition or kill them.  Insurance companies are in a highly regulated market, and the government already does over 45% of health care spending in this country.  If your company's success depended to that degree on what legislators do, you would spend a lot on lobbying too.  Like defense companies do.

Isn't that an argument for less government rather than more?

On executive compensation: This is a thornier matter, because some companies do indeed have messed-up incentive structures.  But if you don't have anyone bailing you out or protecting you from competition, those inefficiencies can bury your company.  If companies are allowed to compete freely, there's a big fat incentive to weed out those practices. 

Executives, for their part, also spend a lot of time between gigs these days, with interview processes measured in months and years, not minutes.  They're people with highly specialized knowledge and backgrounds, who make special kinds of decisions.  Firms don't hire them lightly.

Consider the serial CFO, who works as a consultant in the long periods between exec jobs, who can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in a weekend.  As someone who probably earns a 5-figure annual salary, you think, how can that possibly be justified?

First, consider the fact that she works obscene hours doing a highly demanding job, setting her sleep schedule around daily marathon calls to Europe and Asia, and never gets to settle down because she has to move around all the time.  Many people aren't willing to do these things, even if they had the brains and temperament to function that way.  They want flexibility and families.

But set that aside for a second.  Sometimes you just need the one person who can save 1000 average workers' jobs over the weekend.  She's the kind of person who can dig through your company's finances when you're facing a potentially crippling IRS audit and don't know what time bombs are hidden between the lines of your records.  She knows all that byzantine tax law inside and out in a way that few people can match, and she won't make the same errors and omissions that a lot of other smart people would make--mistakes that could prove extremely costly.  She can work fast and do the job right, end of story.

Supply and demand: she supplies a highly desirable service that few are able (or willing) to do, you demand it because your business depends on it.  Of course you pay top dollar.

Comparisons of profit margins do tell us something

First, total profits aren't what attract investment.  Profit margins are.  That means that the capital necessary to start a new business, expand or innovate within the field is at stake.

And sure, everyone would like to chase the biggest profit margins, but ...

  1. A company or industry that makes fat profits one year can lose billions the next... and the next... and the next.  Risk is a big deal.  People rail against the oil industry in fat years, and don't pay attention when the same companies go several years hemhorraging cash, investing in future projects and new technology, and taking giant risks looking for new profitable fields to tap.
  2. Some of these industries have big barriers to entry.  Very large entry and exit costs, government permission and regulation that protects incumbent firms against new competition, and talent, to name a few.  If everyone could do it, and was interested in doing it, they'd try.  If you ever find guaranteed easy money, I urge you to go for it (unless it involves theft, in which case you'd be a bastard).

But the bigger issue is that generate these profits, they increase the overhead and administrative burden on everyone else in the system. Every practice has to hire staff just to deal with the BS and run around that insurance company dishes out.

First, we shouldn't compare the overhead and administrative burden of government and insurance companies without comparing the incidence of fraud.  The government loses staggering sums of taxpayer money to fraud and abuse.  A while back I read that Medicare is bilked out of an estimated $60 billion annually.  If $13 billion is a "BIG DENT" in the cost problem, then what is Medicare fraud?

We also should take into account the amount of administrative burden that is mandated by the government: remember, insurance companies have to deal with a whole lot of regulation and litigation.  How much of it is really necessary to help the consumer?

That problem is exacerbated when insurance companies are forced or encouraged to insulate people against routine care, which in turn forces hospitals and practices to spend lots of resources dealing with paperwork and billing that could be avoided if such minor transactions were done out-of-pocket.

Cite your source

Cite your source for that $60 billion figure -  is t yet another number Coburn picked out of the air?

An actual expert in insurance fraud puts the figure at $60 billion for the entire American healthcare system - public and private.

Here is another credible source saying annual Medicare fraud totals $18.6 billion. Which would mean it is about on par with what the insurance companies take out of the system in profits. Given that the overheads are 3% for Medicare and 30% for private insurance, Medicare is still the better total outcome!

You mis-cited your sources

At the first link, I see the total fraud number pegged at a conservative estimate of $68 billion by the NHCAA.  When that guy said "more than $60 billion" he was being imprecise.  And the NHCAA repeatedly stresses that the estimate is very conservative.

At the second link, that's $18.6 billion is fraud for Medicaid, not Medicare... and that figure only represents the federal share of such fraud.  Very different claim.

 

WRONG, WRONG, and WRONG

You honestly think $13 billion is going to solve the cost problem? That's staggering self-delusion. That's like the annual profits of one company, Accenture, one consulting firm, in one year. Gimme a break.

Administrative and overhead costs are due primarily to the fact that a) people are addicted to copays, and b) government regulatory nonsense. Private companies don't incur the costs for kicks, they are, after all, trying to make a profit. Said costs are mostly imposed on them from without by government. Paperwork, HIPAA compliance, law suits, etc. etc.

US healthcare costs are higher (primarily due to moral hazard and third party payer overconsumption) but we have higher health outcomes. Please stop referring to the retarded WHO study. You can't include longevity as a health outcome. People die in America because they're fatter, walk less, get into more car accidents and shoot each other more due to drug prohibition. When you factor out non-healthcare factors, US wins hands down.  Just asked the left-leaning Lancet: http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba596. (Despite the fact that our system is already 50% socialized)

 

There are thousands of private insurance companies

There are thousands of private insurance companies out there - those profits are just for a tiny handful of them.

However, as I clearly stated above, the issue isn't the profits themselves, it is the burden placed on the actual healthcare providers that is the problem. Administrative and overhead costs are high due to the fact that is how the insurance companies squeeze money out of the system. Why does even a small practice need a full time employee just to deal with the insurance companies?

Why can the whole of Canada be administered with less staff than BCBS needs just for New England?

Show some convincing evidence that we actually get better outcomes for our obscenely high expendatures on healthcare. Here's a nice passage from a Canadian newspaper yesterday:

Life expectancy is a basic measure of the quality of health care. In the U.S., a citizen will live 77.8 years on average. In Canada, you can expect to live two and a half years longer (80.4 years). Infant mortality is also a vital indicator of health care. In the United States, 6.37 infants die out of every 1,000. In Canada the number is 5.4 out of a 1,000.

But what about the cost differences of the two approaches to health care? Surely our Leviathan-like system, which produces such enviable results, must cost a fortune relative to the U.S. model.

The best measure of health care costs is the percentage a country spends relative to the size of its economy, or its gross domestic product (GDP). Canadians spend about 10 per cent of GDP on health. Americans spend 16 per cent to achieve inferior results on life expectancy and infant mortality.

Finally, it is estimated that there are somewhere around 40 million Americans – about 12 per cent of their population, well in excess of the total population of Canada – who have no medical insurance whatsoever. These unfortunate people are literally on their own in paying for any and all medical treatments they require. That gap in coverage is staggering, making the United States an outlier among all advanced Western nations.

Why do 7 out of 10 doctors support the public option?

 

Why do 7 out of 10 doctors

Yes, they do

You can go to the New England Journal of Medicine and read all about it for yourself.

Among all doctors:

  • Support public option only = 9.6%
  • Support public and private options = 62.9%
  • Support private option only = 27.3%

That means 73.5% support the public option in one form or another.

Here are the responses just for the respondents who said they owned their practice:

  • Support public option only = 7.9%
  • Support public and private options = 59.7%
  • Support private option only = 32.2%

That is still 68% supporting the public option.

 

A little context...

Do you think they support the public option in the context of the current proposals before Congress, or a public option of some kind?  Hence the link I provided. 

And don't a lot of those doctors have a lot to gain if millions of people are pushed into using their services?

If you want to expound the difference between

"the" and "a", go ahead. The point is they are totally refuting the idea that private enterprise is the only way to go.

Regarding your poll, here is what Nate Silver at 538 says about it:

As we learned during the Presidntial campaign -- when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 -- the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they're doing. I mean, literally none. For example, I don't trust IBD/TIPP to have competently selected anything resembling a random panel, which is harder to do than you'd think.They say, somewhat ambiguously: "Responses are still coming in." This is also highly unorthodox. Professional pollsters generally do not report results before the survey period is compete.There is virtually no disclosure about methodology. For example, IBD doesn't bother to define the term "practicing physician", which could mean almost anything. Nor do they explain how their randomization procedure worked, provide the entire question battery, or anything like that.My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

Remember: IBD are the same guys who said that Stephen Hawking was lucky he wasn't British, becasue the NHS would have killed him.

Nate has lots more to say about how rubbish they are - go have a look for yourself.

 

Re:

Fair enough, disregard the IBD poll. 

Will you answer my other question?  Should we be surprised if people support a plan to push millions of new customers into their business, with many billions of dollars at their backs?

So it is your theory that the NEJM through a random sample

managed to find 2,000 doctors who aren't very busy and wished they had more patients?

No.

Everyone wants a bigger pool of potential customers.  That's higher demand.  And a lot more money.

If your baseless conjecture that the poll results

were determined by the greed of the respondants, then why weren't the numbers in support of the public option for those who own their own practice higher, not slightly lower?

Sigh.

It doesn't matter if they own their own practice or not.  A public insurance option, all other things being equal, means more customers for doctors.  It means higher demand.

And it's not exactly outlandish or baseless to point out that people are influenced by personal interest.

They why aren't the people who own their practices

MORE enthusiastic about it than the others?

Who knows?

Could be a number of confounding influences.  Maybe docs with their own practices are more likely than others to favor capitalism/private enterprise.  On that, I could only speculate. 

But it's really not speculating to say that a public option represents an interest for doctors.

So then you agree that everyone who is claiming

that the public option will destroy our health care system are talking bullshit?

And since you acknowledge that you suggestion that the doctors favor the public option because of greed is nothing but baseless conjecture, do you also agree that it is equally possible that they support the public option because they see it as a corrective measure vis a vis the numerous intolerable private insurance company practices?

No and no

See my response below.

 

 

Doctors as a Special Interest Group

 Doctors are the biggest whores out there. They're far more blood-sucking than any insurance company and yet they take a moral high ground. 

Doctors and providers are the largest beneficiaries of any government action when it comes to healthcare. They sure don't want to see the expansion of HSAs, because they don't want people to be cost conscious. They love the copays. They love the system. It makes them very rich.

Who wouldn't want to get an MD, then be able charge $200 to look at somebody's throat? They are a protected guild. Plain and simple.

Also, about that Canadian article:

Life expectancy is a basic measure of the quality of health care. In the U.S., a citizen will live 77.8 years on average. In Canada, you can expect to live two and a half years longer (80.4 years). Infant mortality is also a vital indicator of health care. In the United States, 6.37 infants die out of every 1,000. In Canada the number is 5.4 out of a 1,000.

Several issues with those stats.  First, everyone has to be familiar by now with the fact that different countries measure infant mortality differently.  The US famously goes to lengths to save premies, and it counts them all in its mortality statistics.

Second, and more importantly, there are lots of factors in mortality that aren't determined by medical services. 

For infant mortality, mainly there's the number of previous children, chronic hypertension, diabetes, drug use, nutrition, stress, environmental risks, and age of mother.  Medical services have some effect on those things, but they don't determine it all.  Americans have more low-birthweight babies, but if you want to look at our medical services, we also have the best survival rate for those babies.

For life expectancy, if Canada and other developed countries had the murder and fatal accident rate that we do, the US would fare much better in life expectancy rankings... one admittedly imperfect estimate says we would be #1.  Beyond that, there's American dietary habits, drug use, exercise, stress, etc. ... many of those same things that have some relationship to medicine but which you can't assume the medical profession would solve if only we had broader coverage.

And in defense of other developed nations, they could argue for removing deaths from alcoholism and suicide, and that would make countries like Sweden and Japan look better.  Then you have to start making guesses as to whether people who died young from murder and suicide and drunk driving collisions would have the same life expectancy as the people who survive to older age.  You'd have to make guesses about how much a different medical system could really affect exercise and diet and stress.

In short, there aren't any easy comparisons of medical systems by looking at life expectancy, because the stats are swamped by factors that the medical system can't really control.

The best measure of health care costs is the percentage a country spends relative to the size of its economy, or its gross domestic product (GDP). Canadians spend about 10 per cent of GDP on health. Americans spend 16 per cent to achieve inferior results on life expectancy and infant mortality.

It occurs to me that there are many things we get out of medical services other than longer life and saving babies, which are harder to measure but which we might expect people to value once they can afford it.  How about pain management, the effectiveness of treating injuries (particularly with minimal down-time and scarring), timely treatment of nuisance illnesses, psychological health, Lasik, dermatology & other cosmetic stuff, and other quality-of-life issues?  Why don't we compare those medical care outcomes?

Finally, it is estimated that there are somewhere around 40 million Americans – about 12 per cent of their population, well in excess of the total population of Canada – who have no medical insurance whatsoever. These unfortunate people are literally on their own in paying for any and all medical treatments they require. That gap in coverage is staggering, making the United States an outlier among all advanced Western nations.

This is a really tired statistic that President Obama recently gave up on.  First of all, that's counting some of us who can afford health insurance but choose not to buy it.  We're not so unfortunate.  Many of us are young and healthy and prefer liquid savings to an insurance policy that's unlikely to pay off.  It's particularly unlikely to pay off because we have mandates and other regulations that make insurance a bad deal for people who have low risk profiles and don't want to use many of the services that are mandated by law.  I guess in that sense we're unfortunate: the government has unnecessarily priced us out of the market, and seems poised to force us to buy anyway.

Second, while I may consider any immigrant who wants to be an American as a countryman, that 40 million figure includes a lot of people who are here illegally, as well as a number who are just legal residents but not actual citizens.  And they're often not on their own paying for "any and all medical treatments they require."  They get a lot of care for free in American hospitals.  Uncompensated care accounts for 2.2 percent of our total medical expenditures, IIRC... it ain't cadillac coverage, but it ain't nothing.

The Postal Service is an inapt example.

The USPS hasn't received a subsidy in 26 years despite being over 80% unionized and having among the cheapest rates in the Western world.  It handles around 40% of all mail sent on this planet, and it does a pretty good job of it.

It's an "inapt" example?

Postal Service Ends Second Quarter with $1.9 Billion Loss

And I quote, "The Postal Service has incurred net losses from operations in 10 of the last 11 fiscal quarters."

I would say it's a pretty "apt" example, indeed.

 

The USPS has a legally enforced monopoly

... on non-urgent letters and on using your mailbox.  You even need permission from the government to compete with the USPS to deliver urgent mail.  They admit that they could not continue to continue operation at those "low" rates without both of those monopolies.  They would be out-competed.

The original "Public Option"

Max,

All of the reasons you give above are reasons for eliminating Medicare and letting seniors provide for their own health care.  So why aren't you talking about Medicare and citing Medicare as an example of what we will face if the public option becomes law?  When I hear conservatives talk about Medicare, the argument basically is:  sure it works in practice, but it doesn't work in theory.

I can't speak for Max

... but Medicare doesn't work in practice.  It has very high rates of fraud and its costs are absolutely unsustainable.  It drives up costs of healthcare and by its very existence stifles innovation.

Simply eliminating Medicare would be problematic, because the people on it now or who will soon be on it have paid those payroll taxes all their lives instead of getting to save that money, but we could switch to a better system, and IMHO we need to start soon.

Show me evidence that Medicares

overhead and fraud rates are higher than those of private insurance.

I'll let you do the homework.

I didn't think that the claim that Medicare has high rates of fraud was controversial.  But if you can find evidence (i.e., numbers) to the contrary, I'll listen.

That Medicare has a very high overhead per patient definitely isn't controversial, though it's not straightforward to compare with private insurance because not only is Medicare's overhead disguised by the fact that other government agencies do work for them (i.e., collecting taxes that are used to pay for Medicare), but Medicare also covers far more old people.  Old people incur much higher costs, which suppresses the percentage of costs attributable to overhead.  If you want links for that, I'm sure I can provide them later today.

Happy to oblige

The National Health Care Anti-Fraud Association, an organization of about 100 private insurers and public agencies, estimates that some $60 billion is lost to fraud every year, but that figure is for the entire healthcare system - public and private.

Homeland Security lookined into "improper payments" in the Federal Government and came up with a figure of $18.6 billion for Medicare.

Which would put the level of fraud in Medicare on par with the profits taken out of the system by private health insurance companies. However, medicare's overheads are 3% vs 30% for the insurance companies, meaning the Medicare is still the better outcome, especially when you remember that private insurance companies have their own fraud problems - a rate of about 3%.

See above for my reply to your claims

Medicare

I personally think Medicare should go and Medicaid should be replaced by a refundible tax credit system (voucherized0. Both are massive unfunded liabilities that will bankrupt this country. I'd rather see people have to pay into lifetime Health Savings Accounts than be taxed for Medicare. It's a mess. 

http://www.amazon.com/Putting-Our-House-Order-Security/dp/0393066029

Medicare

I personally think Medicare should go and Medicaid should be replaced by a refundible tax credit system (voucherized0. Both are massive unfunded liabilities that will bankrupt this country. I'd rather see people have to pay into lifetime Health Savings Accounts than be taxed for Medicare. It's a mess.

This is called "rationing", and health-care reformers have come under heavy criticism for suggesting it.  If you are ok with rationing, Max, then I think you owe it to us to explain why just giving seniors a lump sum and telling them to ration it themselves is better than medical professionals at least having a say in the rationing process.  And for that matter, why do you think replacing Medicare with a lump-sum consumer payment will reduce fraud?  As it stands, you have the opportunity with Medicare claims processing to spot and prosecute fraud.  Do you think individual seniors will do a better job of detecting and prosecuting insurer and provider fraud?  The lump-sum payment will also result in insurers cherry-picking healty individuals and leaving people with chronic conditions facing bankruptcy.  As far as I can tell, conservatives consider all this a good thing because from their point of view, if you get sick it's your responsibility and no one else's.  It would just be nice to hear them voice this explicitly when campaigning.

Secondly, the problems that Medicare has controlling costs are about the same as the problems the private sector faces controlling costs.  My way of putting this is:  the way the current market is constructed, insurers and providers don't get rewarded for doing a high-quality cost effective job of maintaining health for their customers.  And if we don't restructure the incentives, we aren't tackling the basic problem.

Amorphous - sounds like an appropriate name

 A) If there is no Medicare, there is no Medicare fraud. Seniors spending money from their own accounts can hardly incent one to commit fraud.

B) Rationing is not budgeting. I forego champagne and caviar when I go grocery shopping. That's not rationing, it's rational. Likewise, seniors can buy long-term care insurance or other suppliments as they need, but to ask young people to pay for wealthy seniors to get checkups once a month or go to an MD for the sniffles, is just wasteful. You don't really understand overconsumption do you, amorphous?

C) Why don't you put your actual name on the posts. You afraid of getting burned publically? Just wondering.

D)  "My way of putting this is:  the way the current market is constructed, insurers and providers don't get rewarded for doing a high-quality cost effective job of maintaining health for their customers.  And if we don't restructure the incentives, we aren't tackling the basic problem." Right. And your way to 'tackle' the incentives/cost problem is to have distant bureaucrats making healthcare decisions. My way is to have people be healthcare bargain shoppers or else pay far higher premiums. But if you offer something for free, people will use more of it  It's not that hard.

Re: Mead50

Starting a new reply thread, because that one was getting too skinny:

You're not even trying to represent my views faithfully.

The public option does mean more customers for doctors, but that doesn't make it a good thing for our health care system.  Indeed, I think it will increase costs and stretch resources.  Some insurance plans will fold and push people onto the public option.  And I have no trust in anyone promising that the public option won't be subsidized.  It's a foot in the door, and as soon as it needs subsidies to survive, it will get them.  Fannie and Freddie are illustrative.

Re: the public option interest, I didn't "acknowledge" any such thing, and it's obnoxious of you to say I did.  I have maintained the entire time that the public option represents an interest for doctors. 

If I critiqued a poll asking farmers if they support food stamps, saying that while some farmers support or oppose it on principle, all farmers have an interest in their continued existence, that wouldn't be baseless.  It would be an obvious fact.

If you continue to misrepresent my arguments, I won't continue this debate.  Last warning.

 

Sorry for being obnoxious.

However, I can't understand your position that the NEJM poll can be "explained away" by saying that the respondants - all doctors - are supporting something that they know is bad for our healthcare system but will benefit them personally.

Just so things stay civil and constructive. Thanks.

It can't all be "explained away."  But we would expect personal interest to influence the results of the poll, so we perhaps shouldn't take doctors' approval as a sign that the public option would actually be good for the country or for patients.

Indeed, because it's harder to be objective about something in which you have a personal stake, I wouldn't even go so far as to say they know that it's bad for the healthcare system; I've observed that people often hold convenient beliefs -- when something is good for you, it's easier to convince yourself it's generally good.

I don't have to look at a poll to know that farmers are especially likely to be convinced that agricultural subsidies and protectionism are good for America.

On this point we will disagree

I grew up on a farm. Many of my relatives are farmers. Many of my friends and neighbors are doctors. I have no problem at all in thinking that the doctors are more capable of disinterested responses in the interest of the public good. If for no other reason than the fact that all of the doctors that I know are already very comfortably well off under the current regime, whereas the farmers are, to a man, unhappy and anxious.

Mead50

The public option does mean more customers for doctors, but that doesn't make it a good thing for our health care system.  Indeed, I think it will increase costs and stretch resources.  Some insurance plans will fold and push people onto the public option.

There are two basic problems the publc option addresses:  people with pre-existing conditions and people who don't get insurance through work.  We are spending money on these people at this point:  either they are on Medicaid or they go to emergency rooms and their costs are borne by insured people.  Wouldn't it we better off to do a less half-ass job of giving these people health care or should we (as you seem to be implying) just let them die (saving the rest of us billions!) because they can't get health insurance?

I'm not Mead50

We don't need a public option to help those people.  If we had affordable individual insurance in this country (instead of mandates and pushing people into employer-provided care) combined with health-status insurance, these "basic problems" wouldn't be problems.  We don't need a public option, we don't need an Exchange, and we definitely don't need more mandates and regulation.

And it's rude to stuff words in people's mouths.  I never even came close to implying that "we just let them die", and if you had just asked what my alternative was, you could have avoided being a jerk right there.

Yup, you're not Mead50. Sorry about that.

So Bryan, how do we get affordable insurance for people with pre-existing conditions and people who work for employers who don't offer insurance?  What's your idea of affordable?  In general, what's your alternative, and can you point any working examples of your alternative?  If you describe a superior alternative, I might even admit I was rude. 

I don't need your admission. You were rude.

Now, as for your questions:

For starters, insurance companies won't reject people with pre-existing conditions if they're allowed to charge people rates commensurate with the increased risk (who passes up a customer, as long as they make it worth your while?), and they'll minimize the price from that inflated risk if they're competing for customers.  Without mandates and similar regulations, they'll sweeten the pot in a variety of ways (including very low pricing and, as I'll describe below, a way to lock in low rates) to try to attract customers while they're young and healthy.

I would favor cutting back regulations that get in the way of individual, portable insurance combined with health-status insurance.  Health-status insurance protects you from changes in your classification like if you move, get divorced, or come down with a new condition that makes you more expensive to cover.  And it would make it much easier for people to change policies.  This would be much easier than setting up a whole new bureaucracy in the form of an "Exchange."

And the way to get affordable insurance for people who work for employers who don't offer it is to:

  • Equalize the tax breaks that employer- and individual-provided health insurance receive.  Why are we encouraging a system that sticks an extra party between the consumer and his health care decisions, much less a system that causes people to lose their coverage just when they get most sick?
  • Remove mandates that force people to purchase a lot of coverage they don't want or need.  Don't limit our choices to a mansion or public housing.
  • Allow insurance companies to discriminate based on risk -- if they're forced to insure people without knowing important things about their risk profile, they'll just jack up the price for everyone to pad themselves against risk.
  • In general, make routine care an out-of-pocket expense, so that we can have some price discovery and bring the cost of the common and little things down, as well as reduce the amount of time doctors have to spend on paperwork instead of patients.  Insurance should cover events that are rare, unpredictable and expensive -- otherwise it's insulation, which just inserts a middleman and gets in the way of consumer-oriented care.
  • If you must have a government program to help the poor to handle their routine expenses, give them HSAs without any pointless provisions like "use it or lose it."  If you must have a government program to help the poor deal with catastrophic costs, abolish Medicare and Medicaid and just have a program that covers costs above 15-20% of income, and exempt the poor from paying the associated payroll taxes.
  • I have several other ideas to reduce the costs from defensive medicine and malpractice torts, pharmaceuticals, routine care, and pretty much everything else in the health care industries, if you want to hear them.  These things would lower health care costs broadly, foster innovation, improve quality of care and expand consumer control over health care decisions.

My idea of affordable is that basically prudent people can budget for it.

And no, I can't point to working examples of my full alternative system because in the small set of countries you can somewhat compare with the US (based on size and approximate wealth), unfortunately they're all broadly intervening in health care.  If you want evidence of the various principles at work, you can look at:

  • Lasik (price drops and quality rises over time)
  • veterinary medicine (more responsive than socialized healthcare for humans in the same country)
  • life insurance (illustrates how risk-based pricing rewards those who insure young, before they develop those pre-existing conditions)
  • car insurance (insofar as there can be price competition in insurance, and some discrimination is allowed based on risk profiles, and routine care is an out-of-pocket expense)
  • industries that have been ruined by competition-killing regulation, including licensing and safety regulations that approve or ban, rather than inform the consumer
  • poorly run government services, especially those that deal directly with the public (like the DMV, public housing, public schools)
  • pretty much anywhere the government installs price controls (floors or ceilings)

I think we could allow people to have affordable, portable, reliable, customizable coverage from cradle to grave.  I think that to do that, we'd have to implement a variety of reforms aimed at allowing free, competitive markets to provide consumer-oriented care.  And I think that the Democrats' currently proposed reforms would take us in the exact opposite direction.

Max: Public option "no", Single-Payer "ok"

Max, you reference this post by Jon in your post.  I go to this post, and it includes the following:

Safety Net: Eliminate Medicare/Medicaid and replace it with Megan McArdle's suggestion: "catastrophic federal insurance for those whose medical bills exceed 15-20% of gross income".  The safety net would still be in place for everybody - stronger, even - but it would be more targeted on actual need and unpredictable, catastrophic health care bills.

If you are endorsing that post, you are endorsing castrophic care for everybody funded by and administered by the federal government.  Single-payer catastrophic care coverage, in other words.  Why do you think single-payer will work for this when you oppose Medicare as a single-payer insurance?

Didn't endorse

 I suggested there are not a dearth of ideas on the right, which your side often claims. I don't endorse McArdle's safety net, but I do think it has more merit than the public option for various reasons. To be fair, I'm not sure anyone gives a hoot about my endorsement of anything. I'm just here to opine.

Didn't endorse

I'm not saying there is a dearth of ideas on the right.  I'm saying there is a lack of will to actually get behind these ideas and push a specific proposal.  And your refusal to either endorse or reject McArdle's safety net proposal is an example ("I'm just here to opine").  So is the total dearth of health-insurance reform proposals while Republicans were in control of Congress and the presidency.  What if Dems said: "Would having a 'safety net' and insurance reform instead of a public option be an acceptable framework for a health-care reform bill you would fight for?"  The feeling I get talking to conservatives is that the uninsured, the underinsured, recissions, pre-existing conditions, etc. are simply not problems they really care about.  Killing health care reform in order to cripple Obama politically seems to be only thing conservatives seem willing to fight for.

I should add

McArdle is talking about eliminating some monstrously wasteful and complicated programs and replacing them with a much simpler system that encourages people to save.  One can favor that as a step in the right direction without endorsing the plan as the ideal solution.