AK-SEN: Senate Filibuster, Alaska's Political Landscape in the Hands of 12 Non-Alaskan Jurors

The trial of Sen. Ted Stevens is almost over, with the case now in the hands of the jury. The trial hasn't been free of drama: the prosecution mishandled evidence to the point where the case was almost dismissed, and eleven of the jurors asked the judge to kick off the twelfth for "violent outbursts." Today, the judge replaced one of the jurors whose father passed away with an alternate. With nine days to go until election day, the verdict will with all likelihood be handed down before the weekend.

When the indictment of Stevens came down, my initial reaction was that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich would be the next United States Senator from the Last Frontier. But after the initial earthquake, the aftershock worked in Stevens' favor. Alaskans learned more details about the indictment, which essentially came down to "purposefully" leaving certain things off of his Senate financial disclosure forms, a charge where the motive is very hard to prove. I was shocked that this is all that the government had on him. It also didn't help that Begich himself essentially committed the same "crime" and "plead guilty" by paying a $1,420 fine to the Alaska Public Offices Commission, the state's financial disclosure watchdog agency. With an initial 13 point deficit immediately after the indictment, undecided Alaskans rallied around Stevens before and during the trial. His campaign rans some very good ads, and he is now anywhere between up 2 point to down 2 points in various polls: for all intents and purposes, a tie.

Bottom line: acquittal for Stevens = big win for Stevens, conviction for Stevens = big win for Begich. I know there are a lot of conservatives who read and write on this blog that aren't fans of Stevens, and I understand. (I've promised some people a piece on why I still support Ted, and that should be coming soon.) But it's been a weird past few months for Alaska from this trial to McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. Let's take a look and the stakeholders affected from the eventual verdict of this trial.

Senate Filibuster

Let's assume that Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are in the Democratic caucus, and make the count from 51. Shaheen def. Sununu (NH), Warner def. Gilmore (VA), Merkley def. Smith (OR), Udall def. Schaffer (CO), Udall def. Pearce (NM), Franken def. Coleman (MN), Hagan def. Dole (NC), Musgrove def. Wicker (MS), Lunsford def. McConnell (KY), and Martin def. Chambliss (GA). That makes it 61. The likelihood of those last two races (KY and GA) going blue are slim but possible. So let's make it 59.

Political junkies might be staying up through the night to watch Alaska's Senate race, and I doubt that the average juror even knows what a filibuster is.

The Campaign of Mark Begich

The Stevens campaign's strategy is clear if he's acquitted: continue their message of his long list of contributions to the state. On the other hand, Mark Begich has to be the most frustrated Congressional candidate in the country. First, the selection of Gov. Palin to the national ticket is limiting the precious amount of free media he was used to getting as Mayor. Second, without the indictments, Begich was probably the favorite to win the election (but not the clear favorite) because of what the "ethical cloud" over Stevens. With that cloud maybe clearing a few days before the election, Begich faces a big loss if Stevens is cleared of all charges.

Third, and most importantly, any strategy Begich runs is a lose-lose scenario. After the indictments came down, Begich couldn't slap Stevens around because of the overwhelming support Ted got after the indictments. The DSCC took on that role with a series of ads and mailers that have gained no traction whatsoever. Plus, the Alaska Republican Party is running their own offense against Begich, running ads about his own financial problems. Begich also can't just run an "issue-based" campaign as he promised. So just a few days ago, Begich decided to switch gears and start attacking Stevens, which signals that Begich is gambling. Even if Stevens is acquitted, Begich is trying to keep the "cloud" over Stevens. But the fact is that if the acquittal comes, Begich is done.

The AK-AL House Race

It looks as if Don Young is making another comeback. Down double-digits earlier this fall to former State House minority leader, Ethan Berkowitz, the latest polls have him anywhere between 5 to 8 points down. Berkowitz has the same problem as Begich: no free media coverage of his issues. Rural Alaska will hold strong for both Stevens and Young; the question is how much the potential acquittal of Stevens will hold off swing voters in urban Alaska (Anchorage and Fairbanks) from going Berkowitz's way. I still give the advantage to Berkowitz because Young used all of his money against Sean Parnell in the Republican primary. But a Steven acquittal could put him over the top if Young keeps up this momentum.

The Alaska State Legislature

The State Senate is holding at 11 Republicans to 9 Democrats, although the 6 of the Republicans joined the 9 Democrats to form a bipartisan coalition. In all likelihood, this number holds, although there are open Reublican seats in Fairbanks where Republican Cynthia Henry (a former staffer for Ted Stevens) has the advantage over Democrat Joe Paskvan, and in Anchorage where current Republican State Representative Kevin Meyer has the advantage over former Anchorage city councilman Doug Van Etten.

There is no doubt that Palin being at the top of the ticket has helped. McCain went from a shaky single digit lead in Alaska to a healthy double digit lead. The same can be said in the State House, where Republicans have a 23 to 17 advantage. There are about 6 Republican seats and 2 Democratic seats that are in some danger of switching over. The probability is that Democrats will only pick up one or maybe two of the Republican seats. The problem is that there are enough RINOs in the State House that would create a coalition with the Democrats if the Republican advantage was eroded to 21 to 19. A Stevens acquittal would secure a healthy Republican majority. A Stevens conviction will probably mean a State House coalition, or maybe even an outright Democratic majority.

How does this change the political landscape of Alaska? Let's take a look at the difference. Stevens acquittal = Stevens in the Senate, possibly Young staying in the House, and Republican majorities in the state legislature. Stevens conviction = Begich and Berkowitz in the Senate and House, along with at least Democratic-controlled coalitions in the state legislature. Add this to liberal majorities in many city councils across Alaska, Democrats have fertile ground from which to build a blue farm team in a red state.

Never before have 12 people who are not registered voters in the State of Alaska have had so much influence in Alaska, and possibly the potential rubber-stamping of a liberal agenda from the Hill.