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What Did the Conventions Change?

Submitted by Josh Kahn on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 16:30
in

How have the conventions changed the Presidential race?  While Obama focused on reinforcing the campaign’s current dynamics, McCain made two strong plays to change the equation.  While he could have done a lot more with the opportunity, McCain was still marginally more successful than Obama.

Obama’s Democratic convention stuck to the playbook the campaign has been using all year.  Same speeches, same Obama, same shtick – larger TV audience.  Obama’s speech could have been given any time since his nomination and most of the surrogates stuck to the “McSame” attack they’ve been pushing since Hillary dropped out. 

This is the slow and steady approach and it makes sense for a candidate who would win if the race were held today.  Team Obama chose their plays months ago and they’re not pivoting now.  Their major failure was their inability to correct any of the mistakes in their playbook, specifically voters’ inability to relate to Obama’s life story, and ultimately their convention didn’t change the dynamics of the race.

The Republican convention on the other hand was a little more lively.  As the underdog, McCain can’t afford to play it safe and his team came in looking to shake up the race’s fundamentals rather than reinforce them. 

McCain succeeded in brining his story of sacrifice and honor in Vietnam to the forefront, mostly because of the excellent last quarter of his acceptance speech.  That section of the speech was the real McCain.  His love of country, his sacrifice and his sense of honor shone through more effectively than at any other time in the campaign.  Unfortunately, most of his speech was green screen blighted, poorly written, tepidly delivered mush.  Thankfully, most viewers seem to have watched long enough to catch the heartfelt last section.

The Palin pick was McCain’s other big plus.  She’s preformed wonderfully over the last week and stood up to the media’s slings and arrows with class and charm.  Despite Mike Murphy’s objections, no other vice presidential pick could have changed the dynamics of the race nearly as much as she did.  Palin strengthens McCain’s working class appeal (which is different than simple base appeal) and brings an air for freshness that bolsters his “I’m the Real Reformer” argument.

Murphy’s biggest criticism of Palin – that she takes away the experience attack against Obama – is actually one of my favorite things about her pick.  She was part of a larger McCain effort at the convention to pivot from the Hillary Clinton experience-based campaign he’d been running towards a reformist, insurgent campaign that fits both his personality and the national mood.

There were missed opportunities however.  Karl Rove’s main advice to McCain was that he show voters he’s comfortable with kitchen table issues. Did he do that?  Not a bit.  McCain has been struggling with this for the entire campaign and ultimately his reformer message will only resonate if he has something he’s trying to reform.  He made some noises about this in long first section of his speech, but the attempt fell utterly flat.

The good half of Dick Morris’ brain pointed out another key convention opportunity for McCain.  By explicitly separating himself from Bush during his speech McCain could have invalidated the Democrats’ most effective attack against him.  While McCain did his best to pretend that the President didn’t exist, he didn’t quite have the guts to hang a lantern on his problem, pivot and explicitly separate himself from Bush.  Properly worded, Republican delegates would have accepted a hit on Bush, even embraced it, and a strong separation would have been a fantastic use of the political capital McCain earned with the base by picking Palin.

Overall, McCain did more to change the equation in his favor than Obama did to reinforce the campaign’s preexisting fundamentals.  He could have done a lot more, but convention season still goes to McCain.  

 

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McCain should be President

Submitted by Freedoms Truth on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 17:02.

The choice to pick Mccain was made much easier. That's what changed.

McCain once again inside the Obama OODA loop with the Palin pick. That's what changed.

Obama's Biden pick was a blunder. if and when Obama loses, the #1 'woulda coulda' comment will be that Obama should have made Hillary his running mate. That's what changed.

McCain in early August was able to define Obama. In the process, McCain bluffed Obama into moving away from the hopey changey vauge rhetoric and back to meat-and-potatoes partisan Democrat speak. That only dims the Obama luster.

McCain in the convention cycle was able to define the choice in the election. The race is now two competing visions of change:

McCain - the maverick bipartisan reformer who has delivered change and reform, and the war hero puts his country first

Obama - the inexperienced left-liberal junior Senator who promises change, which just so happens to mostly be the Kennedy liberal Democrat agenda

Obama will keep trying the McCain=Bush, since that is their strongest suit, but in the end Bush is not on the ballot and McCain, uniquely among Republicans has a known reputation as a maverick. McCain has gone out of his way to tout a bipartisan approach.

What's changed is the choice is easier than it was 3 weeks ago. McCain should be President:

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/09/country-first-why-john-mccain-...

Bashing Bush huge mistake - Emphasize MC-CHANGE

Submitted by Freedoms Truth on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 17:16.

The fact is that more than half of McCain voters think Bush is doing a good job. It is validating half of the Democrats argument. Let's counterargue: Bush is not on the ballot and the election is about the future. So why debate the past over someone not on the ballot? Talk issues, vision, and character.

By explicitly separating himself from Bush during his speech McCain could have invalidated the Democrats’ most effective attack against him.

Mistake! That would be a HUGE trap. The Dems run his words, then they run other words of praise and McCain sounds two-faced. then they throw in the 90% vote-with-Bush line and the fact that "even mcCain now admits Bush's failures".  The LibDems have a field day. And it's all unnecessary. Bush is unpopular largely because the view on Iraq is behind reality and because the media has been bashing the economy to help Obama get elected. You never want to raise the topic that your opponents wants to discuss in the campaign if you can avoid it - so avoid it.  And at the same time, btw I think we need to defend the Bush record. It's a good record overall and he has done a good job on economy and on keeping us safe.

The McCain campaign is saying it clearly "CHANGE IS ON THE WAY". Focus on the competing visions and you take away COMPLETELY the Obama campaign "Change vs Bush" campaign. This is Obama-change (same ol' liberalism pap, weak foreign policy) versus Mc-Change (end earmarks, fight corruption, and push bipartisan reforms).

McCain should talk about the future and his reform plans and repeat the "CHANGE IS ON THE WAY" and "COUNTRY FIRST" themes. By the end of this campaign, everyone will be voting for .... JOHN MC-CHANGE!!!

 

Obama isn't running the same campaign he started with.

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 18:18.

As I pointed out in a previous post  http://rightblog.zubrcom.net/ironman/the-biden-pick-3-electoral-votes-and-a-cloud-of-dust  Obama started out promising to "expand the field" and make a big play for former Republican votes.

Evidently McCain's summer counteroffensive was effective enough for the Obama team to throw out that playbook and go back to trying the sell the old time Democrat agenda just with more money and volunteers than in the past. Notice that he pulled his paid advertising in a number of Red states and hasn;t been seen in those places since his convention. 

The choice of Biden demonstrated that Obama wasn't confident in the narrative he started with, "No, Biden was an effort to firm up the Democrat base and grind out a win along the traditional Democrat/Republican scrimmage line."

I don;t know if anyone in the McCain camp read my post, but here's how it ended

The Biden pick will relieve McCain of worries that his base electoral votes will be at risk. The freedom of decision now rest with his team, who can now decide whether it is their turn to open up the field with an unconventional choice, or look for a conventional pick who can enhance our vote totals in the traditional battleground states and media markets     

I have no gripes with Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty taking it to Obama-Biden on the traditional line of scrimmage, but boy am I feelin former champion women's jock Sarah Palin about now.

McCain stuck to his narrative. The next step in the process will be to use the uber-middle class mother as the tribune to her sisters in the Rust Belt. The faster they retool her message with specific agenda items the better...faster, please. 

   

McCain Ticket Now Has Energy

Submitted by Jeff Roberts on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 18:30.

 Obama's convention really didn't change anything, the dynamics are the same, it just gave him a few additional days of Obama 24/7.

I really think the Palin choice and her speech rallied conservatives to actually want McCain to win, instead of just wanting Obama to lose.  It's a completely different dynamic, and it changed the game.

Let's not forget that it's been over 30 years since a Democrat  got over 50% of the vote for the Presidency.  In 1976, Carter won with less than 51% in a post-Watergate squeaker, and Clinton won with 43% of the vote (thanks to Ross Perot)  

The record indicates that America is a center-right nation, at least on the Presidential level.  I think the same coalition that came out for Bush in 2004 will return this election, but with the addition of a few more independent voters that are more comfortable with McCain. I also feel Palin will attract a few "soccer/hockey mom" female voters that would have normally voted Democrat this year.

If McCain can hold together the traditional Republican coalition that has won the White House for 5 of the last 7 elections, and add a few new voters to the fold, I'm confident he'll win.

anecdotal evidence

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 19:03.

In the past 36 hours I have:

a) shared jokes about "the pistol packin mama" with a hispanic court reporter in Hartford

b) had a rather apolitical friend who is a Catholic deacon on Long Island call me practically at dawn raving about the Palin speech (FYI: do not assume her appeal is restricted to protestants of faith)

c) had another friend bend my ear demanding the largest possible McCain/Palin sign I could find in CT for his lawn (doesn't want just a McCain sign, by the way)   

And guess what----I didn't initiate any of these conversations

Where is Castellanos?

Submitted by VerneStrickland on Fri, 09/05/2008 - 19:17.

Yes, that's the question -- where is Alex Castellanos? After the most thrilling Republican speech I have ever heard, McCain faithful must have looked on in disbelief as this cold fish blew a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ramp up the excitement even further, but instead bumbled through a vacuous diatribe to the effect that, "Well, it's clear that John McCain is no orator." WHAT? I thought the Republican nominee reeled off a flawless presentation of the things that make America great. I thought, "This man is real!" What did Castellanos find wanting? That McCain's voice is not mellifluous? Damn the tone and voice character. It is the man's character that gets me on board for the full ride. I knew Castellanos years ago when he and I were members of the 1984 re-election team for Jesse Helms. Alex was a sharp guy, and I admired him. This is why I am so surprised and disappointed to hear his insulting review of John McCain's extraordinary acceptance.

Agree with you on the missed opportunity to pivot

Submitted by sierradave on Sat, 09/06/2008 - 13:16.

 Sarah Palin had already endeared the base on Wednesday night.  We were told that McCain's speech was going to be an appeal to moderates.  We'll see how he did as the rest of the tracking polls come out, but I don't think he got as much mileage as he should have.

In particular, the Republican party faces historically long odds against in this election, with a presidential approval rating hovering around 30% and jobs-loss indicators that usually spell trouble for an incumbent party.  McCain needed to move beyond his story (it had been repeated endlessly throughout the convention) and send a message to independent/undecided voters that this really would be something different.

That should have happened in the segment where he said that "both parties could do better."  That's where I was expecting the pivot.  But instead of picking something, anything, to take issue with the Bush administration on, he phoned that section in and kept it opaque.  Consider if he'd said the following: 1. the Bush administration failed in its response to Katrina.  2. It did so partially because it has been overwhelmingly partisan in its appointments (pick on Brownie, everyone else already has!). 3. In my administration it'll be different.  I'll reach across the aisle in my appointments... 

Notice, he said #3 anyway.  But he didn't make it a critique of the administration, just a standard campaign promise.

Overall, i thought the speech was choppy and boilerplate, and that all the best speechwriters had clearly been sent to work with Palin.  The base is fired up, but this is a "change" election, and convincing undecideds that "change" means staying with the same party is a monumentally difficult task, needing monumentally effective campaigning in all stages.