Put your money where your mouth is

Robert Reich comments on the current economic situation:

Regardless of your ideological stripe, you’ve got to see that when consumers and businesses stop spending and investing, there’s only entity left to step into the breach. It’s government.

 This is like saying that if you won’t jump into the pit, we’ll just push you. 

When the government spends money, it spends taxpayer money.  With regard to the current economic situation, it is money that taxpayers have already decided not to spend.  They’ve made that decision because, as Reich himself notes, “they’re perilously in debt and worried about keeping their jobs.”

If government then steps into the breach, politicians are overruling your decision about whether or not your money should be spent—and on credit, by the way.  Keep in mind that you knew you couldn’t afford it.  Reich knows it, too.  He acknowledges:

From the standpoint of any particular individual, paying down debts or saving may be smart behavior — even commendable. But what’s intelligent for an individual does not necessarily translate into what’s good for the economy as a whole. The only way to get businesses to create or preserve jobs is through additional spending.

But it is also true that what’s good for the economy as a whole is not necessarily intelligent for the individuals the politicians want to put on the line.  Reich, like so many others, is advocating that we prop up our house of cards and keep pretending it is sturdy.  I would much rather he allow me to figure out whether or not I can afford to be a part of the scheme.  Of course, this kind of conservative viewpoint may sound very unrealistic and overly selfish.  After all, there’s the whole Keynesian paradox of thrift to think about.  There are a lot of people counting on me to buy things with money I don’t have.

In other words, the economy is too big for us to afford having it jeopardized by what is good for us individuals.

But not long ago, it was Reich who said:

[I]f a company is too big to fail, maybe – just maybe – it’s too big, period.

 It strikes me as remarkably inconsistent that Mr. Reich would not be willing to level this same criticism at government.  But consider the point made by another (albeit less famous) economist:

Imagine, it was in 1900 that the US government only taxed us at a 2.5% rate. Then, after each successive war, the government has found it necessary to boost its take of economy to today, where including Obama’s bailout, I estimate the federal government ALONE will take 30% of GDP in 2009.

If the goal of Reich, the president, and the other big spenders in Congress is simply “to create or preserve jobs here in America,” then maybe we can start by reevaluating how we could better spend that money that is already in the budget.  We could certainly consider limiting the salaries of federal employees (as was proposed with corporate executives) and spread the wealth that the federal government is already distributing, rather than printing and/or borrowing ever more money.

It would be an inspiration if President Obama himself would take the lead and forgo his $400,000 salary, his $50,000 expense account, and his $100,000 nontaxable travel account.  (That right there could create a dozen jobs at my salary range.)  And it would also put Barack Obama in pretty impressive company: George Washington is the only president to have refused his salary, and John Kennedy gave his to charity.  (confirm at Wikipedia)

Set the example, Mr. President.  Until then, regardless of my ideological stripe, I just don’t see how I could take your (or Mr. Reich’s) populist rhetoric seriously.

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Comments

harumph. so you make about $25,000 a year?

man, you is POOR!

Everybody knows that compensation is roughly double salary, if you got some health insurance etc to go along with your cash.

Let's just say there's a reason consultants make $100/hr. They don't get health insurance.

How is payng out more in unemployment different from a tax cut? ;-) one gives money to exactly the people who are likeliest to spend it... the other bails out the banks.

  Everybody knows that

 

Everybody knows that compensation is roughly double salary, if you got some health insurance etc to go along with your cash.

Better go check what "everybody" knows.   In fact, non-wage compensation accounts for approximately 30% of total compensation.  That means, compensation is around 40% higher than salary.

How is payng out more in unemployment different from a tax cut? ;-) one gives money to exactly the people who are likeliest to spend it... the other bails out the banks.

I thought bank recapitalization was supposed to be a pretty big priority these days.

you is right. i is wrong.

thanks for the correction.

No, you haven't been listening. Bank LENDING is a top priority. since the banks refuse to lend, even when given money, bank NATIONALIZATION has become the top priority to stabilize our economy. And then-we-need-to-reprivatize-the-banks-as-soon-as-possible.

Bottom line is, this isn't a liquidity crisis. the banking crisis is rooted in a lot of money that they no longer have. enough money so that they should ALL go bankrupt. Gov't can't let the whole house of cards fall at once, though, so they're going to nationalize, keep the lights on until we actually have enough money to buy back the good loans at mark to market values.

At least that's best case. Worst case is probably either riots or this bad bank concept, where we lose trillions MORE of taxpayer money propping up shareholders and bondholders, as we're sold mortgages at war-profiteering prices (five grand for something worth absolutely zero? sure, the taxpayers will pay it!)

Banks

Banks were just on the verge of collapsing because they were over-leveraged.  They had to be recapitalized so that the house of cards wouldn't collapse.  How much should they be extended? 

Anyway, with interest rates remarkably low, it's hard to see why banks would be saying no to good loans.  It seems like the problem is more that (a) there aren't a lot of good loans to be made, or (b) relatively fewer people/businesses really want to take out loans right now.

every single business in our economy is built on debt.

they all need to take out loans in order to continue existing.

sorry, your argument doesn't wash.

Very wrong and wildly irresponsible

It really is stunning to me how little economic sense there seems to be in conservative ranks these days. I worry for our movement and our party.

Of course, this kind of conservative viewpoint may sound very unrealistic and overly selfish.  After all, there’s the whole Keynesian paradox of thrift to think about.

First off, I encourage you to follow your own suggestion and think about the paradox of thrift. It is not just an economic fun-fact! Do you really intend to cheer on a deflationary wage/price spiral? Is such a course fiscally or economically responsible?

Second, it terrifies me when you call your remarks "conservative". They are, in my view, terribly radical, irresponsible and anything but conservative. A thoughtful conservative should make the effort to understand matters before he weighs in with his (uninformed) opinion. When times are good, I too believe we should work as hard as possible to restrict and shrink the size of government. The last, best time for that was January 2001 and we conservatives whiffed; we really didn't even step up to the plate to our everlasting shame.

Understand supply and demand, then tell me why, when government spending is the only demand generator in our control, we should shut it down in the face of the collapse of aggregate demand throughout the world. Unless you can answer that with specific detail you are simply parading your ignorance for all to see.

Read Hayek.

Internalize his point that Keynes was completely full of shit about the relations between aggregates driving economic cycles; that microeconomic factors and not macroeconomic ones cause recessions; and that even well-intended Keynesian interventions require central planning that inevitably leads to totalitarian abuses given the power incentives of the central planners.

And then shut your useless fucking cakehole complaining that others are "parading [their] ignorance for all to see", you collectivist cocksucker.  We should shut down the government "demand generator" because the only way in which it can generate demand is by expending capital that has been or will be forcibly expropriated from the citizenry, with massive waste and corruption along the way.  If we have to suffer through a deflationary spiral to finally free ourselves from economic central planning and to get you and the other collectivists to stop stealing our fucking money, it will be well worth the cost.

 

go back to the 1700's without us.

I'm told there's plenty of land for ranching in Mexico.

Speaking of waste, how is it that the 'free market' health care spends 6% of our GDP on denying people medicine?

Not to put too fine of a point on it, but it appears that the spat continues....

"[I]f one asks what substantive contributions [F. A. Hayek] made to our understanding of how the world works, one is left at something of a loss. Were it not for his politics, he would be virtually forgotten." This assessment was offered up late last year in online magazine Slate by Paul Krugman, 1991 winner of the prestigious John Bates Clark Award.

Ouch. Krugman's not known for his patience (large understatement), but....

What microeconomic factors are causing this Greater Depression? I'll be waiting for you to explain Credit Default Swaps in terms of MICROECONOMIC FACTORS.

hehehe.

If one asks what substantive

If one asks what substantive contributions Paul Krugman made to our understanding of how the world works, one is left at something of a loss. Were it not for his NYT column and his weblog in which he provides shabby intellectual cover for the collectivist shitbags trying to steal our money and control our lives, he would be virtually forgotten.

Be honest: you don't even know what the fuck a credit default swap is.  And the fact that you have the audacity to suggest that the current healthcare market even vaguely resembles the "free market" further illustrates that you're a ridiculous bint that hasn't a goddamn clue what she's talking about.

 

Cmon now

A credit default swap isn't that hard to understand. I mean, anyone who's ever made a prop bet should be able to figure them out lol.

I beg your pardon?

I know someone who has worked with Krugman in the past year or two, and he's been doing research into how we can get through this worldwide depression. In other words, useful shit.

It's not important that you understand what a credit default swap is. It is important that you understand the cumulative impact of CDS, which is

circular firing squad.

My cakehole

It would be interesting to discuss Keynes and Hayek here. Unfortunately the signal to noise ratio would probably too high if the level of rage on exhibit in this comment is any indication. My preference in theoretical debates is always to seek light rather than heat.

I'm still on Krugman's side in this particular depression.

as the Cancer Strategies employed during the bubble don't seem to fit Hayek's model at all. These are not long term "things will give me goodies later" but "gotta get while the gettings good..." ordinary microeconomic ideas.

http://www.auburn.edu/~garriro/e5hayek.htm

well, it's an interesting read.

you can't push on a string.

What else do we have other than Keynesian stimulus?

Ben Bernanke, a Bush appointee in a nonpartisan office who has access to next-month's financial news (literally. what the fed requests, they get), has endorsed this stimulus.

He's the foremost expert in the Great Depression (a perceptive friend of mine said, "when I saw they had picked Bernanke, I thought oh shit"

Bernanke and the stimulus

Ben Bernanke, a Bush appointee in a nonpartisan office who has access to next-month's financial news (literally. what the fed requests, they get), has endorsed this stimulus.

Not true.  Bernanke did not endorse "this stimulus".  He refused to offer an opinion on this particular porkulus bill.  He said, very broadly, that fiscal stimulus might do some good, but only if it is coupled with other actions to stabilize the financial sector.

umm. okay. poor wording on my part.

obviously the big thing is nationalization of the banks. an entire industry gone bankrupt is a REAL mess.

alternative to Keynesian stimulus

What else do we have other than Keynesian stimulus?

1. Tax cuts and 2. Do nothing.

Either is preferable to what's offered in Congress now.

Again you continue to act on the assumption that WE MUST DO SOMETHING RIGHT NOW.  I guess Obama's fearmongering is starting to get to you.

no, what's getting to me is all the whining about

maxxing out pay at 500grand.

Oh, wait, were you expecting me to get my sources of information from the boob tube?

Sorry, haven't listened to Obama recently. Not since the inauguration. Been busy, been monitoring other channels. Plus, there is that whole no TV thing.

Taxes on the rich are at 15%. you pay more than that, I'd wager. And you can't cut taxes on the poor when we're at 13+% unemployment. It's just patently nonsensical. It won't help those who need help the most, in the most timely fashion. At least, if there is a deflationary spiral starting. Dunno about that, myself, but we will see.

There's not much evidence that taxcuts by themselves are likely to do much, and if we cut spending we will see loss of private non-profit capital (like hospitals)

taxes and unemployment

Taxes on the rich are at 15%. you pay more than that, I'd wager.

Umm, no.  Federal income taxes on "the rich" are around 20-25% of AGI.  Meanwhile federal income taxes on the middle class, as a proportion of total AGI, are in the 5-10% range.

And you can't cut taxes on the poor when we're at 13+% unemployment.

We're not at 13+% unemployment.

who says the rich pay income taxes?;-)

they make most of their money off capital gains, which is pegged at 15% for long term investments.

'true conservatism' and the porkulus bill

Do you really intend to cheer on a deflationary wage/price spiral?

Nobody is suggesting that we "cheer on" any spiral.  It remains to be demonstrated, however, that we are actually in, or even on the verge of, a deflationary wage/price spiral, especially in the context of the Fed's gigantic increases in the money supply.

Understand supply and demand, then tell me why, when government spending is the only demand generator in our control, we should shut it down in the face of the collapse of aggregate demand throughout the world.

Nobody is suggesting shutting down all government spending.  The federal budget is over $3 trillion even without this porkulus bill.  As others have noted, this already is an awful lot of fiscal stimulus.  And then there's state governments with their own stimulus proposals.  (Oregon just passed one.)  So please, no more strawmen.

So the real question is, should the government increase the size of an already huge federal budget by a whopping THIRTY PERCENT (~$900B), in one fell swoop, financed entirely with debt, based on economic theories of stimulating demand that have never conclusively been proved to be successful in the past.  It is a very, very risky gamble, because even if all this expenditure has a stimulative effect, the returns on the investment have to cover (a) the initial cost, AND (b) the interest on the debt used to finance it, AND (c) some substantial amount of additional economic activity, to make it all worthwhile.  I don't like those odds.  I would expect a true conservative to be more cautious in how they approach matters of financing and debt.

I would also expect a true conservative to consider the Law of Unintended Consequences when increasing the size of government by so much.  It is a transfer of power to the state, and henceforth a reduction in our individual liberties.  It is a tax on future generations, which is by itself morally questionable.  It is a perpetuation of the preposterous idea that we can borrow our way to prosperity.  Finally it only perpetuates the idea in the mind of the public that government's proper role should be to 'manage' the economy, as if it were a machine that requires maintenance from time to time.  That's dangerous thinking to those of us who value truly free markets.

Besides, it is inherently anti-capitalistic to think that governments ought to prop up sagging demand when markets say the demand really isn't there.

Thank you, johnson springs

The elements of macro Economic theory, simple supply-demand stuff most of us learned in High School, seem to be beyond anyone with an (R) after their name.

johnson springs is the sole voice of reason

johnson springs is the sole voice of reason on this board.

I could agree to that

Other things I could add to that:

re: a deflationary wage/price spiral

We're headed that way like there's no tomorrow.  It's been building for some time, but with banks now seeking bailout money from the gov't, the deleveraging has begun in earnest.

re: we should work as hard as possible to restrict and shrink the size of government.

That's where I'm at with it.  A spending hawk.  But recession is not ime to cut gov't spending.

The formula for GDP:

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

Either accept short-term gov't spending or address the trade imbalance.  Because the C and the I are both dead in the water.  They're at negatives now.

Other gems:

with interest rates remarkably low

It's difficult to understand why inflation isn't off the chart.

If you need conclusive evidence that we are on our way toward a massive currency devaluation, here it is.

On points a & b Henke's got it right.  He doesn't dig at the reason though.

1. Tax cuts and 2. Do nothing.

Targeted tax cuts are fine, as long as they're revenue nuetral.  Anything else will exacerbate the problem, as will doing nothing.

Nothing says, "We meant for this to happen!"  in which case, everyone will soon run you out of town on a rail.

 

I just want to say here that the simplistic child's view that transforms microeconomic principles into macroeconomics is part of what got us here in the first place.

 

Bottom line: The best we can hope for is for the massive deleveraging and inflationary pressures to cancel out.

Reality:  It's not going to happen like that, and you're screwed either way. 

 

tax cuts, doing nothing, moral hazard

That's where I'm at with it.  A spending hawk.  But recession is not ime to cut gov't spending.

So when IS it time to cut government spending?  We can't do it in good times because, according to our wise political leaders, that's when we have to make "investments in the future"; furthermore, when tax coiffers are flush with cash, that's when politicians have the LEAST incentive to cut spending and have the MOST incentive to dole out wasteful pork.  And evidently we can't do it in bad times either.  So when do we cut government spending?

Targeted tax cuts are fine, as long as they're revenue nuetral.  Anything else will exacerbate the problem, as will doing nothing.

So if you mean tax cuts should be accompanied by spending cuts, I'm all with you.  If you mean that tax cuts should be accompanied by tax increases elsewhere, then no.

Nothing says, "We meant for this to happen!"  in which case, everyone will soon run you out of town on a rail.

No it doesn't.  It is, rather, an acknowledgement that government action will do more harm than good, and that markets are ultimately self-correcting.  It is, furthermore, an acknowledgement that it's not government's job to save people from themselves.

But who am I, I'm just one of those dumb fiscal conservatives advocating "failed economic policies".  I guess the intelligent among us should advocate for lots of government spending, and completely dismiss the moral hazard of inducing a greater and greater proportion of the population to look to government to be their savior.  That's just crazy talk!

Since you asked...

So when IS it time to cut government spending?

Well, practically any other time than a recession.

So if you mean tax cuts should be accompanied by spending cuts, I'm all with you. If you mean that tax cuts should be accompanied by tax increases elsewhere, then no.

For stimulus purposes, any tax cuts should result in additional economic activity.  Not all tax cuts do so.

I believe the best would be targeted toward manufacturers that compete with imported product, or toward exporters to assist them in competing abroad.

That is stimulus that will directly effect GDP.

...an acknowledgement that government action will do more harm than good, and that markets are ultimately self-correcting. 

That's the type of error that people come away with after reading Cliff's Notes on The Wealth of Nations.

It would be more accurate to state that markets have an overall tendency toward self-correction in the long-term.

It should be noted that "free" markets assume any number of standards, all of which must necessarily be enforced.

...it's not government's job to save people from themselves.

I never said it was.

However, it is the government's job to act in the public good.

 

the government has control over issues of national security

therefore it should nationalize the banks. ;-)

also, your tax cut ideas would be sound IF this was a recession. it's a worldwide depression, which is a HELL of a different can of worms.

All hail enforcing standards on free markets! Regulate Regulate Regulate!

inflation isn't off the charts

because consumer spending is down, and private investment is tanking (rich people sending moneyz to europe, which guarantees all deposits)

metlife is doomed.

It's not beyond us.  It's

It's not beyond us.  It's just that, unlike people with a (D) after their name, we eventually progressed beyond learning economics from coloring books, and grasped that Keynes was a charlatan whose theories have about as much empirical basis as alchemy.

 

 

maybe you can explain mishpuka to me?

or maybe you really haven't studied as much as you think...

99% Rule

The term describes a concept of "family" that extends beyond just blood relatives to individuals who aren't actually relations, but are close enough to you that they may as well be family members.  It's also been used to describe the Jewish mafia.

It has not the first fucking thing to do with what we're talking about here, you dumb twat.  Go back to your coloring book.

 

the terrorists have won.

it matters not.

too big to fail wins the day.

Government is us

We live in a democracy .The government that spends our money is not some space alien, it's us.  People want government to spend -- to stimulate the economy. 

author's note

I didn't say that the government should do nothing, but that sure seems to be what the Keynesians read into this article.  No, the point is that the gap between supply and demand has developed for a reason, and even assuming that it is the proper role of the government to prop up the economy, it's not a good idea to prop it up to the level it has been roaring along at.  The whole point is that level was unsustainable.

I honestly don't care if you think I'm ignorant or Republican or making $25,000 a year... none of those petty ad hominem complaints addresses the fact that Reich's argument was based on the assumption that when consumers and businesses stop overspending (on credit) and investing poorly, the government should jump in and take their place.  His oversimplification promotes irresponsible spending.

The point was further made that if any new spending is going to be brought to bear by the government, then at least some of it could be done out of the already existing funds.  Do critics of this post not care about efficiency?  And where do you think federal money comes from?

I care about efficiency alright.

we're in a global depression. America needs a NEW economy, not just the old, FIRE one all over again.

This is why I'm going to continue to bitch about that Housing Credit, and why I'm all in favor of more money being spent in stimulus.

Not that it will help, very much. the opportunity for action has slipped through our fingers.

there is no way that the government would be able to jump in and spend 70% of our GDP, like consumers do on a regular basis. NO WAY. Even wwII cost 25% of GDP, and that may have helped us out of a worse depression than the one we're currently in (don't know how bad this one will get, yet).