Washington Governor's Race Continues to Defy Stereotypes

Eric Earling has been on the WA-GOV's race like white on rice. This is our best opportunity to elect a Republican all-star in a pickup this cycle, and we need to help Dino Rossi. -Patrick

Interesting developments in Republican Dino Rossi’s repeat contest against now sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire:

1) Democrats Are The Ones Taking Heat in the Press for Ethnic Slurs

The State Democratic Party managed to secure itself some widespread, off-message PR for its web video attack on Italian-American Dino Rossi, set to the tune of the Sopranos. Though the party changed the tune accompanying the video, the state’s largest newspaper, the Seattle Times, weighed in with a Sunday editorial chiding both the deed and the lack of contrition. Thus, on the heels of Democrats complaining about building industry funded ads against Gregoire, Rossi is the one who comes out looking aggrieved.

2) Headlines Implying Corruption Aren’t Directed at the Republican

Both the Seattle Times and Seattle P-I have run stories raising serious public questions about large contributions going into Democratic coffers to support Gregoire’s re-election effort. Whatever the pushback from Gregoire and Democrats on those issues, the optical appearance of public policy benefits for six-figure contributions – especially when validated by MSM reporting – is bound to be a problem for Gregoire in coming months.

3) The Democratic Incumbent is on the Defensive in 2008

First ads from an incumbent, major-office holder tend to be positive spots, touting recent accomplishments – especially in an electoral environment favoring the incumbent’s political party. Yet, Gregoire’s first ad is an entirely defensive radio spot, fighting back against charges her administration’s record on sex offenders is weak (other related ads from the building industry have criticized her record on gas taxes and transportation, state supervised foster care, and the state’s business climate). One can only find the ad buried in a June 25^th entry – without a permalink – at the Gregoire campaign blog.

Meanwhile, even high-dollar Democratic attacks against Rossi lack major punch. A large PAC funded by the Democratic Governor’s Association, SEIU, the Washington Federation of State Employees, plus a number of local unions is airing 15-seoncd TV ads lamenting Rossi’s ties to the usual evil industries of pharmaceutical companies and health insurance companies. 

The odd thing is, the contributions cited amount to less than 1% of the funds Rossi has raised in past and present runs for Governor and the Legislature. Given the distance between now and the general election, that is a lot of time for Republicans to counter with discussions of the media scrutiny of Gregoire’s own monetary backing, as discussed above.

The very fact Dino Rossi is within the margin of error in public polls and highly competitive in fundraising with a Democratic incumbent in a blue state speaks much to his opportunity this year. In 2004, he surprised much of the local political community with a late-charging campaign that appealed to citizen discontent with status quo leadership in the state capital. The residual goodwill of that race and his handling of the disputed, post-election recount mess leaves Rossi with the chance to again outflank his status quo opponent from unexpected directions.

Rossi has already begun to do so with a reform plan on transportation to address the long-neglected congestion problems affecting the greater Seattle metropolitan area. He may even be able to do likewise with conservative-minded, reform ideas on K-12 education and to a lesser degree, the environment – both traditional Democratic issues.

The news and stumbles of the last couple weeks simply confirm the opportunity Dino Rossi has in what is an otherwise challenging election year.  He'll have to execute a near flawless campaign to pull off a win in the Evergreen State, but his chance remains as real as ever.