WA-GOV: Rossi v. Gregoire "Tight as a Tick..."

All signs currently point to a gubernatorial race in Washington state that is eerily close to the 2004 results, which produced the closest such contest in US history.

 - The latest public poll?  A 48-48 tie from Rasmussen.

 - The RCP average for the race?  Another 48-48 tie.

 - Pollster.com's trend line?  A margin of 0.9% for Rossi.

It's an amazing electoral brawl.  One difference, however, is the state of the race at this juncture in the election cycle.

In 2004 Dino Rossi was a little known state Senator who ran an excellent campaign, running down the favored Christine Gregoire (then the sitting state AG) toward the end of the race.  Public polling in 2004 showed Gregoire with a clear lead in early October rather than the current dog fight.

Such standing is not inconsequential given that the lion's share of state voters will begin receiving their ballots by the end of next week in what will largely be a mail-in election.  Within that construct, it should be noted that political observers have identified that later mail-in ballots in Washington state have recently favored Republicans as the counting moves from early to late mail-in ballots (more background the true political junkies here).  In short, Republicans and Rossi have a history of closing races well in the Evergreen State.

All to say that despite the terrible headwinds blowing against Republican candidates this year, Dino Rossi is in a better position to win in a blue state in 2008 than he was in the amazingly close race of 2004.