WA-GOV: Gregoire & Democrats Appear Increasingly Desperate

 

You wouldn’t know it from the poll numbers, with RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com showing very modest leads for Republican challenger Dino Rossi of 2% and 0.8% respectively as of this typing. Yet, signs increasingly point to desperation beginning to take hold among Evergreen State Democrats and the campaign of incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire.

 

The tone of the campaign is crystal clear after the first debate: Rossi is running – much like his initial race in 2004 – as the change agent in the race. In the face of one-party rule in Olympia and a sitting Governor with nearly forty years of experience in state government it’s not a tough sell in a year where the electorate is full of angst.

 

In contrast, Gregoire is a candidate on the attack, spending more time criticizing her opponent – and comically attempting to link him to George W. Bush - than outlining a vision for the state whose governorship she seeks to retain. That’s an odd way for an incumbent to run, especially in a state that already favors her party.

 

Even before the debate, however, Gregoire had already tipped her hand. At the start of the year education and transportation were the top issues on voters’ minds in Washington state. In recent months, the economy and gas prices have combined with steadily increasing news of a massive state budget shortfall awaiting the Legislature next January to dominate the concerns of the electorate.

 

Gregoire’s response? Run factually questionable ads on stem cell research.

 

This may turn out to be a major strategic blunder in what was already a close election contest. At my home blog I’ve detailed how Gregoire tried a similarly disingenuous gambit on the topic of stem cells in 2004. The fact she doing it again, and getting caught with her hand in the cookie jar even earlier this election cycle than last, already has her on the defensive.

 

The Seattle Times editorial board – which just endorsed Barack Obama - has called her on it directly, noting:

Rossi has likewise turned the issue not into one of stem cells (the current Democratic wedge issue of choice), into one of Gregoire’s own veracity since local editorial boards and news coverage have called it out as a “political gimmick” and a naked “ploy” for votes rather than anything relevant to state policy:

 

For icing on the cake of desperation, the state Democratic party has decided to sue to force general election ballots to list Rossi as a “Republican.” Under the rules of Washington’s new and somewhat unique “Top Two” primary system, candidates file under their choice of party preference (which they define in 16 characters or less). Thus, Rossi is listed on the ballot as “Prefers GOP Party,” Gregorie appears as “Prefers Democratic Party,” and no other candidates are listed in the race.  

 

Despite the fact Rossi followed the state’s election rules – and ran heavily on the GOP moniker in 2004 (with the collection of ad disclaimers from that race to prove it), Democrats want to change the rules.  Either that or they now figure the only way Gregoire can win is to find earned media opportunities to declare: “Dino Rossi is a George W. Bush Republican!” 

 

Just like national voters had a built-in image of John McCain before this election cycle, however, so to did Washington state voters have an established picture of Dino Rossi thanks to the goodwill he earned in 2004.  Democrats tried to paint him as a right-wing nut-job in back then. It didn’t work. This year, a Democratic PAC has dropped over $2 million (a decent sum in Evergreen State politics) to pull the same trick. That hasn’t worked either, yet now Gregoire is reduced to virtually the same trick.

 

Look at the pollster.com trend lines for a better understanding of this dynamic: 

 

Gregoire and the Democrats don’t have a response to this. She doesn’t have a record of accomplishments that resonates with the electorate given its current mood. She doesn’t appear to have a vision for the future of Washington state – or at least anything of the sort that’s she talking about on the campaign trail.

 

All they can do is throw mud (or more fragrant substances) against the wall and hope it sticks. That’s an awfully desperate way for an incumbent to run a re-election campaign with six weeks to go in the race…especially in what is supposed to be a Democratic year.

 

The crazy thing is that since Washington is still a firmly left-leaning state, even with all this Rossi could close the race splendidly and still lose another agonizing nail-biter. For now though, it’s clear which side has a message and which side is desperate. Amazingly, it’s the Democrat in a blue state who is already flailing.