Dino Rossi: Republican as Change Agent

The first TV ads from the major candidates in the Washington state Governor's race are out, showcasing a compelling anti-Establishment twist from challenger Dino Rossi:

There is much to like about the ad, including the anti-status quo messaging in Washington state, where Democrats have held the Governor's office since 1985 and have been edging toward Massachusetts-like majorities in the Legislature over the least several election cycles.  Rossi, just as he did in 2004, is emphasizing his own personable nature, running as an affable, forward-thinking candidate.  That's usually good strategy in any case, but exceptionally useful running as a Republican in a blue state in 2008.

Rossi is buttressing the TV spot with a similar radio ad that in addition to the messaging discussed above, talks openly about the challenges currently facing the typical family.  That contrasts sharply in tone with the pie-in-the-sky approach of incumbent Christine Gregoire's own first TV spot, which tries to sell an overly optimistic state of affairs that is not exactly in line with the mood of the electorate:

Preaching a mood voters don't intrinsically accept is an odd approach, even as the incumbent obviously has to find some way to run - at least in part - on her own record.

Also in contrast to the tonal dissonance of the Gregoire ad, Rossi has two slightly different version of his own spot.  The other can be found here.  Note that as the ad moves into a discussion of issues, the backdrop of the main spot has an urban/suburban feel.  The backdrop of the second version has a rural/small town motif, for use in non-big city media markets.

Finally, the ad includes multiple hints to inoculate the viewer from the "Dino Rossi hates trees, clean water, and small furry animals" attacks that Democrats will inevitably launch in the environmentally conscious Pacific Northwest.  The greenery and flowing stream at the start, the windmill and flying birds in the backdrop as Rossi says "an improved climate" (even though he's speaking about small business growth), and Rossi himself in a casual green shirt during the disclaimer at the end all add up.

Some might decry that as hokey, but it took the same sort of attentive messaging in 2004 to assure voters that Rossi was a likeable guy and plausible Governor rather than the right wing extremist Democrats tried to pain him as.  Either way, it's a good start to the 2008 ad wars in Washington state.

UPDATE:  the latest poll out in the race shows a continued tight race, with Gregoire once again in the incumbent danger-zone of under 50%.  She leads Rossi 47% - 45% with 8% undecided.  Note also the right direction/wrong direction question; only 26% say the state is headed in the right direction.