Connecticut

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

One would think it would be impossible to screw up voting on a nonbinding resolution congratulating a sports team, but Mr. Arrogance, Congressman Chris Murphy, succeeded in the politically impossible.

He insulted his constituents across a majority of his district. 

U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy voted against a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives that congratulated the New York Yankees on recently winning the World Series

Now why would a politician do this? OK, there were a few members from Massachusetts, metro Philadelphia, and one sore Anaheim Angel fan out there who voted no. But a Connecticut congressman? 

The 5th District is located primarily in Fairfield and New Haven counties.  As the Quinnipiac poll demonstrates, not only are the Yankees the most popular baseball team in CT, they are especially popular in that part of the state.

In fact, the largest city completely within the 5th District is only 56 miles from Yankee Stadium

I haven't seen any polling on this point, but I strongly suspect Derek Jeter is hell of a lot more popular than some Nancy Pelosi lapdog in Congress

So back to the point, why Chris?, Why anger your constituents who are celebrating a well earned victory?

As a lifelong diehard Sox fan, I have too many scars from Bucky Dent to Aaron Boone to add another from casting a vote to congratulate the Yankees for winning this year’s World Series," Murphy said. 

Sounds like a whole lot of sour grapes and arrogance, Mr. Murphy.  You would think a liberal Democrat would appreciate a team that wins even after paying a "luxury tax". Oh boo hoo, Chris.

That's Ok Chris, we'll let all your constituents in southwestern Connecticut know you are a petty little man who saw fit to insult a team they've rooted for all their lives.  Perhaps your career will then emulate that of this brilliant Red Sox legend

It had been the topic of lots of rumors in CT political circles over the past few weeks, but at 5pm tonight Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell ended the speculation.

She will not seek re-election in 2010

Needless to say, there's a lot of speculation now as to the proximate cause. Rell's incredibly positive image took a hit over the summer due to the state budget crisis; her effort to force fiscal conservatism resulted in a state budget agreement she expressed little enthusiasm for. It's hard to be a moderate Republican and stay popular when you have to tell a ravenous liberal legislature the cupboard is bare.

I think the bigger reason is Rell is a 63 year old woman with a chronically ill husband.  Can't fault that as a reason for retirement.

This of course shuffles the deck for the 2010 election with Rell's Lieutenant Governor, Mike Fedele, seeking to run as the GOP candidate. Other possiblities are State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and State House Minority Leader Larry Cafero.  None of them are household names, which has led some to wonder if Senate candidate Rob Simmons might be lobbied to change races.

As for the Democrats, the most notorious candidate is 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont.  No word if that causes Joe Lieberman to endorse a Republican. Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy and Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz have been running for months, but might be eclipsed by the Lamont entry.

The Democrats haven;t won an election for Governor in CT since 1986. Their chances of breaking the streak improved tonight.    

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?

It's Mischief Night tonight, and I hear the "Wild RINO". Linda McMahon has picked out her Halloween costume for tomorrow evening.

(Try not to scare Rahm Emanuel!, Linda)

One thing that Ms. McMahon is eager to portray is being the self-reliant hardscrabble businesswoman who rose to billions solely through single minded hard work and perseverance.

And just like the sport: Wrestling's fake. And so is the WWE's true committment to free enterprise.

That is, unless your definition of "free enterprise" includes sinking one's snout deep, deep into the public trough guzzling corporate welfare.

From the Journal-Inquirer.

A top aide to Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Linda E. McMahon today defended her company’s acceptance of millions of dollars in state tax credits, as both Republican and Democratic opponents pilloried her for what they called McMahon’s “stimulus package” and “taxpayer-funded bailout.”The attacks by former 2nd District Congressman Robert R. Simmons, the leading Republican seeking to unseat U.S. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, and by a Dodd surrogate, state Democratic Party spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan, came after the state subsidies to World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. were reported Thursday by the Journal Inquirer. 

The newspaper cited state records that show WWE has collected nearly $3 million in digital and media tax credits, most of which were issued just eight weeks before McMahon resigned her position as its chief executive officer to run for office.

Yep, Linda McMahon's immensely profitable wrestling empire gets subsidized by the Connecticut taxpayer, who are watching the income tax raised on the top bracket, public services reduced, and the state try and borrow its way through the recession. Indeed, unionized state employees even agreed to concessions, which is more than can be said about the state's would-be entertainment titans.

The apologists for the state's highly subsidized entertainment industry accuse McMahon critics of "jumping the shark" .  You see, it was other politicians who wrote these lucrative credits into the law.

Sorry, none of them are spending millions denouncing bailouts when they run a profitable corporation that takes them themselves.  It's "Happy Days" alright for the McMahon family, but the average CT taxpayers feels like they are in remake of "Jaws" 

So the news media has concluded that Ms. McMahon, whose family controls the vast percentage of the WWE's stock, converted tax credits from the state into funds available for her campaign. Maybe this is a form of "public campaign finance"

But it gets worse.

Despite the fact that the WWE was very profitable notwithstanding the recession, shortly before she left her CEO post  at the WWE Linda McMahon went on a frenzy of layoffs and cost-cutting intended to raise profit margins.

Jan. 9, 2009, 9:38 a.m. ESTMcMahon & Co. has announced that it is cutting 10% of its staff, which should result in annual cost savings of approximately $8 million. In exchange for that, the company will take a one-time charge of $3 million. WWE also noted that the company has completed an evaluation of its operating and capital expenditures and has identified "additional efficiencies." In short, more cost cuts are on the way. The company's ultimate goal is to trim $20 million from its expense structure in 2009. 

I'm the last person to lambaste a business that cuts costs to stave off competition, or to stockpile cash, or to pay off lenders and creditors.  And we are going to see a lot of very necessary cuts like that in Corporate America. But the WWE is essentially a monopoly in pro wrestling, they have consistently earned a profit and have $200 million in cash with virtually no long term debt..     So why the urgency to cut costs?  Well, as I noted the McMahon family owns 70% of the WWE  Let's apply 70% of the $20 million in cut costs; well that means $14 million inures to the McMahon family..

So,does the Wild RINO gets to finance most of her U.S. Senate campaign with "new money" without having to dip into the family fortune? Sure looks it.

McMahon's campaign has run a TV ad telling folks how tough it was for her and Vince starting out, even having to declare bankruptcy and losing their house starting their business.

Hey Linda, like that's special. Please.

What really sickens me is it appears she is paying for this ad using the extra profits she earned after firing over 60 Connecticut employees.  

How many of those 60 WWE's employees are going to lose their house so their old boss can finance her U.S. Senate bid without dipping into the accumulated family fortune?  In 2006 Joe Lieberman eviscerated the campaign of Ned Lamont after running this ad.    

It's tough wearing a costume as a free market Republican and expecting people to believe you; Linda.

Especially when you destroy jobs, not create them . And collect subsidies. Not cut them.

We're onto the trick, Linda. You already got the treat.

Guess Connecticut's Chris Murphy doesn't want to face any more nonscripted events like this

As he tries to explain the trillion dollar, two thousand page health care "reform" bill drawn up by Madame Speaker, Nancy Pelosi  

Now he can't just pretend he didn't solicit any opinion from the public. No, what he's done is try and sneak a couple of quicj town meetings in before anyone notices, probably stack the hall with SEIU/ACORN types, and then claim that public sentiment is radically more in favor of the new health care bill---which is just as bad, if not worse, than the piece of sludge Murphy helped draft in the Energy and Commerce Committee.

So what's a swing district Democrat to do. Give the actual voters less than 48 hours notice your are holding the Town Halls. And hold both in the more Democratic eastern end of the district.  And add a single hour for a "telephone town hall" which we can be sure is going to be stacked with liberal lackeys..

Dear Friends,

I’m bringing the health care reform conversation back to you.

When I held a series of public events in August on health care, I told you that I would host more meetings after the House unveiled the health care bill and before the vote. The House will likely vote on a health care bill within the next few weeks, so I am organizing these events so that I can hear from people in Connecticut about what you think should be done to make health care more affordable and accessible for residents of Connecticut.

I hope you can join me at one of the 2 town halls I am hosting this Sunday, November 1 to talk about health care reform. Due to space limitations, these town hall events will be for residents of the Fifth District only.

I will also hold a telephone town hall style meeting on Wednesday, November 4, at 6:20pm from Washington, DC. To join the call, follow the instructions below.

At all three events, I will address questions and concerns from both proponents and opponents of health care reform.

SUNDAY

WHO: Congressman Chris Murphy (CT-5)

WHAT: Town hall meeting on health care reform legislation

WHEN: Sunday, November 1, 1:30-3pm

WHERE: Avon High School

510 West Avon Road

Avon

 

SUNDAY

WHO: Congressman Chris Murphy (CT-5)

WHAT: Town hall meeting on health care reform legislation

WHEN: Sunday, November 1, 5:30-7pm

WHERE: Lincoln Middle School

164 Centennial Avenue

Meriden

 

WEDNESDAY

WHO: Congressman Chris Murphy (CT-5)

WHAT: Telephone town hall on health care reform legislation

WHEN: Wednesday, November 4, 6:20-7:20pm

CALL IN: (877) 229-8493

PIN: 13348

Now the worst part of this is Murphy is holding these events so as to compete with a) the New York Giants football game ( 1pm Sunday) and the World Series; which features the Yankees ( start time 7:30 Sunday). So if you wanted to ensure a crowd full of wonks that hate sports, well this is when to schedule this. Most of Murphy's regular constituents are sports fans. Too bad for them. But if you are some bleeding heart who thinks valium prevents a suicide squeeze, you're all good.

There's shameless. And then there's Chris Murphy.

I went through some mail that accumulated on a chair in my foyer and found the latest glossy missive from "Republican" Senate candidate Linda McMahon (a/k/a "the Wild RINO')

It had a stone wall full of blocks wherein she claimed a bunch of principles were the "foundation" of her campaign.

Stuff like "integrity", "fiscal responsbility",  "honesty"----yadda, yadda, yadda.

This is a hoot coming from someone who subsidized Nancy Pelosi's takeover of the House in 2006.

And isn't it a bit odd to have a wrestling promoter running on a ticket of telling the truth?

She's a "Blue Moon" candidate alright. Madison Avenue has decided that being a conservative is fashionable this season, and so Ms. McMahon, like any good Greenwich gazillionaire, follows fashion

It's just not cool to be Rahm Emanuel's favorite Republican even in a CT primary. So her huge stable of Republican establishment hacks and flacks are doing an extreme makeover; much like Newt Gingrich is trying to do in NY 23. 

Linda McMahon is the "stealth Scozzafava". The RINO from upstate NY was easy to spot; her legislative record and history of endorsements made clear the Republican Party was a matter of convenience to her, not conviction.

McMahon is no different.  Much as Scozzafava played ball with the Left, how else is one to explain McMahon's persistent financial support of liberal Democrats.

And why is it when one finds her supporting Republicans, they are among the most liberal in the entire party...even adamantly opposed to conservatives.

Linda McMahon may put blocks of granite on her glitzy mailers. But her Republican credentials are tissue thin.  

Obviously a point lost on the current management, since 73% of the party has lost faith in its leadership

(this is posted at the entrance to CT's largest food store)

Please enjoy the brisk fall air tomorrow evening in downtown Stamford, CT as we express our warm greetings to President Obama and Senator Dodd!

The prospect of merriment awaits as we cheerfully exercise that right to peaceably assemble guaranteed in our Consitution.  

SHINE A LIGHT ON CORRUPTION

Date:  Friday, October 23

Time:  4:30 PM to 6:30 PM

Place:  Hilton Hotel, Stamford, on Greenwich Avenue, at the corner of First Stamford Place

President Barack Obama will be speaking at a fund-raising dinner for Senator Christopher Dodd in Stamford on Friday.  The Hartford Tea Party Patriots, in conjunction with other conservative grassroots organizations, are planning a tea party rally nearby.  Please join us!  Bring your family & friends, your signs, your voices, and your flashlights.  You don't want to miss this party!Please open the attached file for a map with the rally location & directions.  Here's another link from the Stamford Hilton with additional information:  http://www.hiltonstamfordhotel.com/location_and_directions/ The hotel advises using the following address for GPS-generated directions: 151 Greenwich Avenue, Stamford, CT 06902. 

Be advised that if you have other committments you can choose not to attend. We wouldn't want to prove the President right and demonstrate Republicans are good at following orders.