vp debate

Following the GOP convention last month, John McCain’s campaign had an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on the excitement and good will that Sarah Palin brought to the ticket. Instead, they failed miserably.

Fortunately for the McCain campaign, last night’s debate performance offered a new opportunity. Palin’s uncomfortable interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric are old news. Her grasp of policy -- albeit jittery at times -- demonstrated that she has what it takes to be McCain’s No. 2.

What she does next -- or more importantly, what the McCain campaign allows her to do next --will define whether she has what it takes to define conservatism for the next generation.

It was about a month ago when I outlined Palin’s promise and peril. My opinion is largely unchanged. Conservatives should still be very skeptical given what little we know about her. The fact that we learned little about Palin’s worldview until last night is startling. And even then, it's hard to know if those were her thoughts or someone else's words.

Last month I posed these questions:

Will Palin follow in McCain's footsteps? Or will she charter her own course that remakes the right? She seems like a great leader. So where does she want to lead? Putting aside the talking points, what is her actual, governing philosophy? What are *her* priorities? Will she be a manager or transformative?

A month later, we still don’t have clear answers.

That’s why over the next month, the McCain campaign needs to let Palin be herself. Here are three things she can do:

1. Solo town hall meetings. This would erase doubts about Palin’s inability to answer tough questions. Putting her in front of an audience that can ask unpredictable questions would show that she’s comfortable talking directly to Americans and also eliminate the media filter. It ties in perfectly with McCain’s straight talk message.
2. More radio and TV interviews. As Conn Carroll notes, putting Palin before Gibson and Couric was like sending a baseball player to the majors without any practice. The campaign’s miscue can be corrected. From now until Nov. 4 she should be doing conservative talk radio daily (she’s only spoken to Hugh Hewitt so far) and sitting down with local radio or TV journalists in the cities she’s visiting.
3. Outreach to bloggers. At the lowest point in the McCain campaign, his team turned to bloggers for a biweekly call with the candidate. McCain was only one in either party to do this regularly. It built tremendous rapport and allowed bloggers to quiz McCain about timely issues. Doing this would also put Palin in contact with her staunchest supporters and bypass conservative media elites.

The American people didn’t get to know Sarah Palin over the course of the past month. With the clock ticking, there’s no time to waste.

When by Saturday morning the event is no longer discussed by cable TV and print wire services.

I think there is a huge sense of disappointment in the media, They were convinced that they had a train wreck waiting to happen, and much to their dismay, both trains made it to the station.

I have to say this was about the best Joe Biden I've seen, but he's still trying to peddle the "poor boy from nothing "line to steal Sarah's thunder. I could go on and on about Biden's mansion, his lobbyist son, his MBNA deals, but maybe we ought just look at where he went to high school.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archmere_Academy

From 1910 until 1931, Archmere was the beautiful country estate of John J. Raskob, his wife, Helena Springer Green, and their 12 children. Chairman of the Board of General Motors and Vice President in charge of finance for the DuPont Company, Raskob was recognized as one of the most successful and influential financiers of his time.

Between 1916 and 1918, the Raskobs had constructed on their 48 acre property an elaborate home, The Patio, a fine example of Italianate, Renaissance architecture, and Manor Hall, a servants' quarters. While the Raskobs lived at Archmere, the house was alive with activity. During the presidential campaign of 1928, Archmere was the scene of many meetings of the Democratic National Committee. Raskob was campaign manager for the party's presidential nominee, Governor Al Smith of New York.

The history of Archmere as a college preparatory school began in the spring of 1932 when Bernard Pennings, Abbot of the Norbertine Order, made what must at the time have seemed a risky decision to purchase the Raskobs' Delaware River Estate for $300,000....

Archmere's mascot, the Great Auk, frequently compared to a large penguin by neighboring schools, is the only known one of its kind in the United States.

OK, all you folks out there who went to a snooty prep school with the "Great Auk" as a mascot, get down to Home Depot and start campaigning for Biden!

Tonight, Sarah Palin was sharp, articulate, and connected with the middle class. The #1 political effect tonight will have is an important one for the McCain campaign: she shut the doubters up, and then some. In this important sense, she stopped the bleeding. I suspect that a very tough couple of weeks ends tonight, and it will be up to John McCain to get the comeback going next Tuesday.

Conservative weak sisters like Kathleen Parker and David Brooks can turn their pens in another direction. Tonight, they've been silenced. At the convention, I wrote this about Palin and the GOP establishment pundits and consultants:

But the fact still remains that if you are thrilled about Palin, you have a grassroots sensibility. If you are not, you have an elite/establishment sensibility. The delegates on the floor are the grassroots. Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan are the elite. The dividing lines have always been there, but Palin provides the ultimate litmus test. ...

Palin injected a badly needed jolt of people power into the campaign. The maverick spirit is not gone. It's been reinforced in some key ways. McCain is still the same bipartisan guy he always was -- but Palin provides the grassroots with a reason to crawl on glass to make the phone calls and knock on doors and get out the vote. We didn't have that before. We have it now. Polls don't completely factor it in -- and the establishment tends to discount it as playing to the base. But it is the dark matter of campaigns -- that stuff that gives the campaign a good vibe that lets it put its best foot forward. 

Last night represented a triumph of grassroots politics in a campaign we thought had left it for dead. And just as with Republican icons before, the establishment will once again be proven timid and wrong.

A major contributing factor to conservative despair these last two weeks is that the fear that the Palin choice would be defined as a warped historical error. Conservative and grassroots leverage over the party would be gone, at least for the foreseeable future. Sarah was our gal, and if she messed it up, it would be a long time before the conservative narrative about the future of the GOP would be trusted again. Meanwhile, conservatives were being asked to depart from principle in supporting the bailout. It was a wrenching and sobering couple of weeks.

Just as with her brilliant RNC speech, Palin did not let us down. And once again, she becomes the hope of the ticket and a standardbearer for the young guns who include Jindal, Portman, Cantor, McCarthy, Ryan, and many more.

Palin can no longer be defined as a liability in any meaningful political or analytical sense. Her claim to leadership in the next Right stands stronger than ever.

*10:41 PM EST, 9:41 PM at WashU in STL*

Palin: "I can relate to the problems of the middle class." She did a good job with repeating this, but she should be more specific on the campaign trail after this debate. She should do what McCain did at the Saddleback Forum: tell stories.

Like I predicted 90 minutes ago: debate = draw. No game-changers.

Three things the McCain campaign needs to do with Sarah Palin:

1. Go further on the energy issue. Start merging energy policy with foreign, national security, and economic policy. McCain should say that Sarah Palin would chair a special National Security Council subcommittee focusing on energy policy.
2. Experiment: get Palin to speak directly to Libertarians and see if we can fire them up for election day.
3. Palin message on electronic media: time to look forward, not backward on the policies of the Bush administration.

Congratulations to both VP candidates for pretty solid performances in their areas of expertise.

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*10:26 PM EST, 9:26 PM at WashU in STL*

Wow! Joe Biden gives a great emotional answer after he explains that he won't change his ways. He explains that while he is more fortunate than most Americans, that he can connect with those in middle America. He's taking Palin on on Palin's court. I don't know if that's good or bad for us. Debate lesson #2: use stories to connect with voters. Palin is describing her experience as a working mom in many questions and using it to her advantage, but the story from Biden was powerful.

But Palin is staying on message: The Courage to Reform. Joe Biden is fighting the McCain = maverick message head on ... again I don't know if that's good or bad for us.

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*10:20 PM EST, 9:20 PM at WashU in STL*

VP discussion ... BORING!

Talk more about education ... education (i.e. choice, accountability, throwing money at a problem doesn't solve) needs to be a cornerstone for the next conservative movement. It's a good way to talk about the principle of equal opportunity vs. the principle of equality in condition.

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*10:13 PM EST, 9:13 PM at WashU in STL*

Both Biden and Palin give good answers to the "heartbeat away" question. Biden uses it as an opportunity to keep it simple and talk about principles and policies of an Obama-Biden administration. Palin gives even a better answer: "it's ok to disagree ... you should expect that from a team of mavericks."

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*10:03 PM EST, 9:03 PM at WashU in STL*

Next ad for the McCain campaign should be ... Palin on the Dem ticket: "Enough is enough with your ticket looking back and playing the blame game." Really the only way for McCain to take this "Bush-McCain connection" attack head on is:

1. I am not George Bush. (Put forth at the convention.)
2. Change is coming. (Put forth after the Palin pick.)
3. Stop talking about the past and start talking about the future. (Needs to be done NOW!)

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*9:52 PM EST, 8:52 PM at WashU in STL*

Iraq ... blah blah blah. Pakistan, Iran, Israel ... blah blah blah. And the uncommitted voters on the CNN dial agree.

Palin should ask Biden why he supported the tri-partioning of Iraq.

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*9:41 PM EST, 8:41 PM at WashU in STL*

You can really tell from his body expressions that Joe Biden is holding back from going on a full-blast attack on Palin, the type of full-blast attack he went on during the primary.

No kidding: this debate is sort of boring.

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*9:31 PM EST, 8:31 PM at WashU in STL*

FINALLY! Sarah Palin exposes the hypocrisy of Barack Obama on energy. Obama voted for the Bush energy bill in 2005, while Biden and McCain voted against it. See question #3 in my last post: 5 questions Palin should ask Biden.

Tomorrow, I'm going to do a fact check on the McCain health care plan. I can't stand all of the Obama-Biden campaign's misleading claims on McCain's health insurance tax credit.

Biden on bankruptcy bill vote: "I saw the glass as half-empty, Barack saw it as half-full." What does that mean? If there was an opportunity in the United States Senate, would both of you have voted "present"?

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*9:24 PM EST, 8:24 PM at WashU in STL*

Biden is giving another good answer, this time on taxes: focusing on the principle of "fairness." Biden is taking a page from McCain in the first Presidential debate: focusing on short and simple principles. Now, while we as conservatives don't agree with this redistributionist philosophy, the "debate lesson" here is: keep it simple and and stick to principles.

Palin is struggling with keeping to a simple principle on her answers so far, but she did receive a nice spike with men on CNN's response dial when she mentioned that government isn't always the solution to every problem. The McCain campaign might want to do some more targeting research into using Palin for a libertarian constituency GOTV effort.

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*9:13 PM EST, 8:13 PM at WashU in STL*

Biden is giving a pretty good answer on the bailout by once again focusing on the "failed Bush economic policies." He's really spiking with women on the "Uncommitted Ohio Voters" dial on CNN!

I'm glad Palin is being the "validator" ... mentioning McCain's record of calling for reform of Freddie and Fannie.

Palin's answer to Biden's question on McCain's "fundamentals of the economy" quote is fantastic! "The fundamentals of our economy is based on the the American workforce."

WOW!!! Another great answer to Gwen's question on who is to blame when it comes to the subprime mortgage crisis. Predatory lenders ... never again should the American people be victimized by greed and corruption. Her answer is getting three times the positive reaction Biden's response is getting on the uncommitted voter dial.

Palin is heading in the right direction ... reform in the right way. Biden is heading in the wrong direction ... defending Obama.

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*9:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM at WashU in STL*

Panel on CNN is debating this question: "How consequential will this debate be?"

Well, according to Patrick earlier today, Palin's stumbles with Gibson and Couric didn't make any hay in the polls.

I'm predicting a draw.

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*8:52 PM EST, 7:52 PM at WashU in STL*

Like the last debate, I have sequestered myself from watching any of the cable news networks today to avoid getting the usual talking heads into my head. Right now, the tube is on TBS ... Phillies lead 5-2, middle of the 8th.

I'm not going to lie: I'm half worried and half excited. So is the glass half empty or half full?

One thing is certain: Gov. Palin needs to go back to the person who can connect with the experiences and feelings of blue collar, suburban/exurban America to shore up southern Virginia, suburban Colorado, rural Michigan and Minnesota, and most of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The theme for her tonight should be "The Courage to Reform." The McCain-Palin ticket has a record of calling for and executing reform, even when it was unpopular. She should ask Biden to name one instance where Obama has fought against the wind on a critical issue.

I give credit to both the Obama and McCain campaigns for accepting a much more open debate format where an actual debate can happen. As the Commission on Presidential Debates puts it:

"The moderator will introduce each segment with an issue on which each candidate will comment, after which the moderator will facilitate further discussion of the issue, including direct exchange between the candidates, for the balance of that segment ...

"Our mission is to promote voter education. The public deserves to hear and see the candidates offer and defend their positions on the critical issues facing our country in the most thoughtful and in-depth manner that television time constraints will allow. Loosening the constraints within the ninety minutes debate will allow for more serious examination of complicated questions. This change will also open the possibility of the moderator inviting candidates to question each other."

I wish that John McCain asked more questions of Barack Obama last Friday to put the senior Senator from Illinois even more on the defensive. I hope it gets more lively in the two other debates. Jon is right that Sarah Palin "must define herself or be defined," but she can definitely help herself by asking Joe Biden the following questions:

1. The centerpiece of your Iraq policy during your Presidential campaign was the partition of Iraq into three autonomous federal regions: the Kurdish North, the Sunni Center, and the Shiite South. Do you and your running mate still think this "cut and divide" policy is the smart thing to do?
2. You voted for NAFTA in 1993, the Africa free trade bill in 1999, and the U.S.-China Trade Relations Act, which normalized trade relations with China in 2000. But you voted against the creation of free trade agreements with Singapore and Chile in 2003, with Central America in 2005, and with Oman in 2006. What makes China more deserving of free trade relations with the United States than Singapore? Furthermore, why have you flip flopped on trade?
3. You and John McCain voted against the Bush energy bill in 2005, while your running mate voted for it. Don't you think it's hypocritical of Barack Obama to attack John McCain over "giveaways" to oil companies when Sen. Obama voted for such a "giveaway" himself?
4. You said you opposed the federal bailout of AIG this month in an interview with the Today show. Soon after, you backed off of that position, telling voters in Ohio that you had not yet been briefed on AIG. Why did you change your mind? Don't you think it's dangerous for someone who wants to be in an executive position to flip flop on very important matters like our financial crisis?
5. Although we like to attack corporate loopholes in the tax code, the Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office say that housing industry receives more tax breaks than any other industry, part of the cause of the current financial crisis. Most tax experts say we've got to pull back some of those subsidies so that people only buy a house when they can afford it. Senator Obama's plan actually piles on more tax benefits for housing. Why are the experts wrong?

As my friend from Alaska who's an operative said on the phone today:

"I hope her interview performances are some sort of ploy to drive expectations to the ground, and then hit back with an amazing performance at the debate tomorrow."

As Jon explains, she still needs to be the "validator" for McCain ... talking about energy as it relates to foreign and economic policy, ethics, and a reform agenda ... an agenda that McCain and Palin both have a record of courage to take head on.

The Vice Presidential debate is less than two weeks away, and it will be an unconventional one for sure. There has been only one time when a women debated a man in the Vice Presidential debate, and that was Geraldine Ferraro, against George H.W. Bush. 

There is no doubt that both camps are studying the video to learn the do's and dont's of debate that involves a women. George H.W. Bush came off as condescending when debating Ferraro, and that is not because of what he said so much as how he delivered it.

Ferraro voiced displeasure in the debate, and accused Bush of patronizing her. This is because Bush's choice of words were what he would have said to a man, and not to a women. While the facts don't change just because you are debating a women, the perceptions of the audience definately do. 

Joe Biden has a tendency to come off negative and personal, and it could really work against him in the debate. I don't think Sarah Palin would bother to accuse him of patronizing her, she would most likely just fire back. This works for her, by showing she can keep her cool and still make her point, she makes herself look like the more collected candidate.

It is for this reason Biden has a disadvantage from the start. He will be on the defensive, being very careful to not come off as sexist, and will have to walk on eggshells when talking to her. This is not ideal for Biden, but it is a lot better than the alternative, which is looking a shovenist.

Regardless, there will be plenty of fireworks, and Biden is a very good debater. Most likely, no one will emerge a clear victor in this debate. Biden would be well advised to hold his tongue in regards to personal attacks, and stick very close to the issues.

Palin will come out swinging, and does have the potential to really shake Biden up, but his years of experience will most likely serve to keep the debate very close. All he has to do is avoid a gaffe, and he should come out with no damage. 

Palin may also be able to escape with no damage. If she can even hold her own against someone with so much experience doing debates, then that in itself should help the debate not appear one sided. The bottom line is both candidates should come out unscathed, making this a safe debate for both campaigns.