stimulus

Sports Mogul sacks taxpayers, intercepts stimulus $$$$

Carolina Panther quarterback ...

 

The owner of the NFL New England Patriots, Bob Kraft, has persuaded the Deval Patrick administration to spend $ 9 million of federal stimulus money to build a footbridge between parking lots at Foxboro's Gillette Stadium. 

I simply cannot believe that this is the most pressing use of money to jumpstart the Commonwealth's economy, but then again, Bob Kraft did max out for the Patrick campaign. So, I'm sure this became far more important to the Massachusetts economy than say, fixing bottlenecked ramps off I-290.

Of course, Kraft is happy to cajole public favors, like his use of Hartford as a bargaining chip to get MA state funds to build roads into Gillette Stadium in the first place. Sleaze

Something tells me this is NOT what the original "Patriots" fought the Revolution overIt wasn't "Give me corporate welfare, or give me death!" 

The problem with Recovery.gov isn't the data, it is the politics

The White House has gotten a black eye for two key problems with the Recovery.gov stimulus database. The first problem was that the numbers of jobs were bogus. The Washington Examiner has concluded that at least 10% of the jobs were fabrications. The second problem was that the data about congressional districts were clearly garbage.

But I am not here to rehash this. There is a legitimate problem with the data. But the data wouldn't be such a big deal if the White House hadn't tried to politicize the data and claim victory.

Recovery.gov is a tremendous success for the transparency movement. Politicians lie. A key goal of the transparency movement is to give the people the power to keep the politicians accountable. And that's what this has done.

Here's what happened: The White House shared the data and lied about what it showed. And the data has been used to hang them.

First, let's go to the stimulus bill itself. Congress demanded that the White House report jobs created or saved numbers:

(8) The website shall provide a link to estimates of the jobs sustained or created by the Act.

But that legislative langauge says that "[t]he website shall provide a link to estimates" ... "by the Act". The bill doesn't require a per-contract or a per-district accounting of jobs.

So what's happening? The White House quickly learned that the stimulus bill was going to be a hot potato. So they started to use Recovery.gov to give them (and their Democratic allies in Congress -- recall no Republicans voted for this) cover.

Let's be clear what happened here: the White House politicized this data. And now they are getting hung with the politicization of it (not the bad data).

And this goes to the deeper point. Check out this story from the Washington Post from October 30th, the weekend before election day:

Reports to be released Friday on the government Web site Recovery.gov are expected to show that the $150 billion in grants and loans made so far under the economic stimulus package have created or saved about 650,000 jobs, White House officials said Friday morning.

White House officials said the reports -- which were filed by state and city governments and other recipients of stimulus grants and loans -- will confirm their recent estimates that the $787 billion package passed in February has so far saved or created about a million jobs, putting it on track to match their estimates of 3.5 million jobs created or saved over the three-year span of the stimulus. That calculation is based on the fact that today's reports do not include much of the package's spending -- tax cuts, safety net spending and fiscal aid to strapped states, which injected tens of billions more into the economy and, in the case of the state aid, forestalled layoffs of state workers.

The White House clearly leaked this information the weekend before election day to claim victory based on garbage data. Furthermore, they claimed that Recovery.gov confirmed their previous assessments, and didn't come to any new conclusions based on data. 

Fifteen days earlier, based on partial data, the White House also claimed victory based on incomplete data, using the same number. From the Hill's Walter Alarkon:

"All signs -- from private estimates to this fragmentary data -- point to the conclusion that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months, a much needed lift in a very difficult period for our economy," said Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden.

That same 1m had been their talking point for a while. In September the White House said:

This analysis indicates that the ARRA and other policy actions caused employment in August to be slightly more than 1 million jobs higher than it otherwise would have been.

In May, they said:

Our finding was that the ARRA would increase employment relative to the baseline in this quarter by approximately 3.5 million

Six months later, the White House was repeating these same numbers even though they had data to prove it false. That's the problem.

Stimulus Minimis?

This is hard to believe, but hey, it's the federal government's own statistics.

Guess how many new jobs the much ballyhooed "stimulus" program has created across the state of Connecticut, a place with a workforce of about 2 million?

20. That's right. TWENTY. Two-Zero.

You know, that's a total of 2.8 additional new jobs for each Democratic vote in the CT congressional delegation that favored the $800 billion boondoggle.

I really do hope this program picks up some more steam. Because based on the fact that CT's taxpayers are responsible for about 2.2% of the total federal tax base; right now we are running a cost to the CT taxpayer of about $900 million per additional job. This even makes Alex Rodriguez look like cheap labor.   

Then again, Joe Biden was in Fairfield last month  touting some big paving and tree cutting program  on the Merritt Parkway.  And we know " no one messes with Joe"

Right?

The Stimulus’ “Lagging Indicator” Myth

Obama and the Dems credit the recent better job market to the Stimulus bill, but defend the-still-week job market by saying that jobs are a “lagging indicator,” it lags the rest of the economy when it comes to improvements, therefore the Stimulus does not yet fully reflect in the job market.

The Problem is this: February, the month the stimulus was signed and before any stimulus money was dished out, the economy lost 60,000 jobs less than in January, and in March the economy lost even less jobs than in February. If the “logging indicator” excuse is true, why did the economy in March, the month stimulus money merely started rolling out, lose less jobs than it did in each of the two months before it? The March improvement cannot be attributed to the stimulus considering jobs are a lagging indicator. Right? It takes time for the Stimulus to reflect in the market. Aint it so?

Whichever way you will cook it, you are toast: if you use “lagging” is a factor, how/why did we get the March improvements? You will of course have to agree that some (or most) of March happened on its own (just as February certainly did happen on its own because it was before the Stimulus). If so, how much of the general improved job markets since then took place on its own independent of Obama? And if you will say logging is not a factor and the better March number IS a direct result of the stimulus, why is the job market now, a half year later, still not doing better than it is?

Side Note:  if you wonder why February saw improvements even before the Stimulus, go back to Katrina for the answer: the New Orleans waters receded before the Bush team took any action. Why? because there is this much havoc that panic can cause before things get less bad on its own. The same is with the job market: it started getting less bad on its own, back in February.

(This writing was posted here too)

 

1000 Pennies: Stimulus Predictions VS Reality

Clever and well done.

The brilliance of Nobel laureate Paul Krugman

I chime in with Megan McArdle (H/T)

Wow.  Just . . . wow.  .Paul Krugman, circa 2002

The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble. (emphasis added)

My word, was this ever nonsense on steroids.

I can assure you that the people actually involved in real estate finance out in the hinterland in the early '00's would have explained quite concisely the risks in "bubbling" real estate---since Mr. Krugman obviously ignored the popped bubble circa 1989-1990. But we aren't Ivy League eggheads and we weren't asked.

Let's deconstruct the impact of this remarkable paragraph

A) It was easy for Paul Krugman to identify the real estate bubble in 2006 since it was exactly what he lobbied for in 2002.

Worst still, you spent the second Bush term bashing him for presiding over policies you endorsed. 

B) Krugman often scoffed that the only tool Republicans ever want to use is cutting marginal tax rates. Look in the mirror, Paul.  Everytime the economy hits the least bit of trouble, you immediately demand the fire hose of stimulus --either monetary or fiscal or both--be turned on.  It' a Johnny-one-note approach.

C) The solution to the popped Nasdaq bubble was the real estate bubble. Now the solution to the popped real estate bubble is the federal budget bubble. When the Chinese stop lending to us. are we going to find another bubble to blow up?  What is this--Bazooka economics?

There's always a crisis in capitalism for Paul, and there's always a bubble to fix it.  Should the guys in Oslo do a recount about that award about now? 

So, how hot is the pot now?

I was forwarded this from a friend on Wall Street. It is from the in-house newsletter his firm's senior analyst circulates.

 

There can be no explanation other than that the US taxpayer is suffering from boiling frog syndrome. As the old story goes (which is totally fantastic, btw), if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water, he will immediately leap out. However, if you put a frog into a pot of cool water and gradually turn up the heat, you can cook him alive right before your very eyes. Of course, what this visual suggests is that we are being lulled into a cozy state. (I guess any rebate checks or decreased withholding tax, coupled with the regular excoriation of the rich, backed up with promises to raise taxes on those rotten, earning dirt bags … and on those rotten, earning dirt bags alone … will get an Administration a lotta’ brownie points towards this goal of lulling.) By degrees, we are becoming accustomed to the changes that are being made. And as the water in which we are stewing heats up, I fear some kind of desensitizing is taking hold as well. Unfortunately, we won’t realize until it’s too late, that the continuous installments of increasingly hotter water eventually will cause our demise. What’s particularly galling about our situation is that the changes that are being rammed thru are not even being done all that stealthily. The problem as I see it, though, is that the subject matter is a bit too sophisticated or complex for the average, lazy American to want to lift a finger to either educate himself, or better, put a stop to the madness. 

I presume we want to turn down the thermostat--so what's the plan to cause that to happen, folks?

 

A visual aid on the Obama jobs record

I considey myself sorta a "shot and a beer" Republican so when I see charts like this from Redstate

joblosses.jpg

I feel compelled to try and provide a better visual idea of the futility to date of Obamanomics

Since February the Obama camp claims to have "saved or created" 100,000 to 150,000 jobs

On the other hand, unemployment is up by over 1.5 million. I suspect that when adds in "discouraged workers" no longer seeking work we are well above that number.

So I think there's about a 1 to 12 ratio of new or saved jobs to lost jobs right about now.

So here's the graphic

Jobs Obama saved Go to fullsize image

 

Jobs Obama didn't saveGo to fullsize image

Any questions?

 

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Do the Opposite

Negative

by  Lance Thompson

Many people I respect believe that conservatives cannot appeal to a majority of voters simply by saying “no” to the socialist agenda now guiding our government.  They say we must have an alternate positive plan, rather than simply obstructing the rush to totalitarianism.  I disagree.

A train headed for a washed-out bridge benefits immensely from anything that safely halts its headlong rush toward destruction.  If the passengers realize the danger, they would also perceive the value of halting forward progress.

But for those who require a positive plan, one is available and easily understood.  As so many profound ideas these days, it comes from the source of much modern wisdom–half-hour network comedy classics.  In the NBC series Seinfeld, the character of George Castanza suffered week after week from the results of his chronically poor judgment–lost jobs, broken relationships, public humiliation and personal embarrassment.  In one episode, George realizes that the source of his troubles is his own warped instinct to always make the wrong decision.  He further decides that he will, from that moment on, always do exactly the opposite what his instincts tell him to do.  Instantly, he finds success and happiness — all because he decided to “do the opposite.”

This is the positive alternative conservatives have been looking for.  Obama spends trillions of dollars we don’t have, and plunges the nation into debt we can never repay.  Saying no to this is certainly sane and responsible, but doing the opposite would be even better.  Instead of increasing spending, how about reducing it?  Would reducing spending play well with the electorate?   In a recent poll, Californians faced with a massive state deficit preferred the solution of reducing spending to raising taxes by a 3 to 1 margin.

Obama has abandoned long-time allies to their fates by canceling defense programs and dismissing vital relationships, gone hat in hand to our sworn enemies to apologize for America’s foreign policy, and demonstrated tolerance for outrages committed by rogue regimes.  Certainly ceasing these self-defeating behaviors would be a positive step.  But how much better to do the opposite–install missile defense systems in Poland because it strengthens a stalwart ally, support Israel in defending itself against terrorists on all sides and a nuclear-ready Iran, acknowledge and strengthen our special relationship with the United Kingdom, and show pride in and demand respect for the sacrifices generations of Americans have made to defend freedom and liberty throughout the world.

Obama has vastly increased government control of private industry.  The current executive branch is now in the executive suites of banks and lending institutions, automobile manufacturers, and soon health care providers.  Obama has bought a majority share of Chrysler with taxpayer money, then handed it over to union bosses.  Clearly, simply saying no to all of this Marxist nationalization of private industry would be a demonstration of sanity.  But doing the opposite would qualify as insightful and visionary.   Allow the ruthlessly fair free market to pick winners and losers rather than government bureaucrats.  If companies cannot compete, then they must fail and make room for those that offer what the public wants.  Artificially propping up inefficient companies rewards incompetence and punishes competitors who are actually doing things correctly.  Taking government out of private industry energizes, enables and encourages investment, innovation and success. 

Obama promises to raise taxes on the rich, on businesses, on the most successful entities in our society and economy.  This is a policy that, again, punishes success.  Not punishing success, and refusing to raise taxes, is a definite improvement.  But doing the opposite–reducing taxes on successful individuals and enterprises–is infinitely better.  Encourage and reward success with lower taxes, and we shall certainly have more of it.  Our economy will expand, employment will grow, revenues will increase, just as it did under Ronald Reagan, and in response to George W. Bush’s tax cuts.

I do not agree with those who say conservatives cannot simply be the Party of No.  A few administrations ago, “Just say no” was First Lady Nancy Reagan’s advice to kids to avoid drugs.  It was widely ridiculed by the Left and the media.  Yet drug abuse undeniably begins voluntarily, which requires an affirmative response, not to mention a substantial investment.  Just saying “no” when drugs are offered effectively eliminates the problem.

But for those who believe conservatives need a specific plan to counter the tide of socialism sweeping across the country, the solution is clear and simple.  Take any policy of the current administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress and just do the opposite.  In every case, such a course will result in greater success, expanded liberty, and a brighter future for Americans.

On the other hand, continuing in the current direction will result in America becoming a pitiful minor character in a show about nothing.

Democrat priorities: Artificial turf more important than cops

Stamford CT Mayor Dan Malloy fancies himself a "New Democrat" who is fiscally  responsible and concerned with economic growth.

Of course, when Fox News's Steve Doocy tracked him down, Mayor Malloy's major initiative was to use the federal stimulus money to cover the city in new astroturf fields

Yeah, that was what is was going to take to get ourselves out of the depression. Astroturf.

$15 million worth.

So where does Mayor Malloy spend the city's own money?

Not on police protection!

23 officers in Stamford laid off

Stamford (WTNH) - Negotiations between the city of Stamford and the Stamford Police Association (SPA) broke down tonight and that means 23 police officers will be off the beat.

What's even more ironic about this is Malloy's own son is a recidivist criminal.

The old saying applies here. Don;t watch what Democrats say;  watch what they do.

Anyway, with incumbent Republican Jodi Rell @ 72% job approval Malloy might as well go to the artifical "field of dreams" as for his chances to unseat the Governor.

 

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