Roy Blunt

There's a must read over @ the New Ledger which I think makes a point missed by the Beltway brain trust.

Yet the assumption that these protesters are right-wingers — or as others have accused, fake grassroot anger, or “astroturf” — seems a vast oversimplification. While we hardly have data on the people who have been attending these townhalls and shouting down members attempting to sell health care insurance reform, anecdotal evidence indicates that this is hardly manufactured dissent. Obama’s plan is hardly popular, and many Americans who are not Republican or conservative are opposed to the package and nervous about its outcome.

Domenech makes the point that this appears much more to be a sudden resurgence of the Ross Perot phenomena than any Republican party inspired movement. I tend to agree. Recent polls show that Republican party identification is still rather low; it's been deterioration in Democratic support over recent months that's kept the gap from widening. To the extent any national figures have stoked the flames, they are media hosts like Limbaugh, Hannity , Beck and Levin and not Republican elected officials.  And the "feel" of the crowds doesn't reflect the losing late decade Republican coalition of preachers and lobbyists.

These protesters aren’t really fans of either party (George W. Bush is no more popular at Tea Parties than Barack Obama), but driven by a strong sense — and basic American ideas of liberty — that the government shouldn’t be intruding on their lives, taking their money and giving it to companies that don’t deserve it, telling them which doctor to go to, and generally mismanaging things.

Indeed, the only contemporary Republican political figure who seems to be aligned with this inchoate anti-establishment vibe is Sarah Palin, who as we are well aware marches to her own drummer.  While Palin is often pigeonholed by the MSM as a 'social conservative champion", much of the energy she brought to the McCain campaign during its brief burst of success was appealing to these sorts of voters who had tuned out the Republican establishment.

These voters are "middle American radicals"--distrustful of big government but usually skeptical of movement conservatism or corporate Republicanism.  I suspect that one will find a rather substantial number sat out the 2008 election, and clearly they decided to abstain from the 2006 midterms in droves, costing us both houses of Congress. 

So here's the challenge:

if those on the right aren’t able to present a strong, coherent alternative, they will be unable to rally these Perotistas to their side. In 1994, the Republicans were successful at this, combining a package of populist governmental reforms with outrage against irresponsible governance to attain victory — but more recently, they’ve given no signs of having this capability. Whether they can recapture it, and claim enough of the independent middle to win, will be a very challenging thing indeed.

And what are Republicans doing to harness this energy for the 2010 elections?  Nominating a bunch of "certified pre-owned candidates"

The latest example is from Colorado, where it appears failed 2006 gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez is about to challenge appointed Democratic senator Bennet. 

Beauprez appears to be a perfectly satisfactory guy; he won a swing House district twice and seems to have done a credible job in Congress.  But how much pizazz are we getting running a guy whose been around awhile and lost his last statewide race by double digits?  Maybe the alternatives haven't shown to be able to get it done, but I'd like to think we'd do better than a "round up the usual suspects" approach to nominating candidates in this unconventional election cycle  

Same for Roy Blunt or Charlie Crist. Are we giving ourselves our best shot in 2010 by running old time corporate Republicans? And let's assume they do win. Are these the sorts of people that are going to inspire a new generation to become active Republicans?

Lemme throw a race where we should be thinking outside the box. Nevada. Harry Reid has anemic approval numbers but all the prominent Republican officeholders of late have legal problems or think they'll wait for John Ensign to step aside in 2012.

Fine. Why don't we look to a nonpolitician to run against Reid. Make this the classic outsider vs. the classic insider.

Half of Nevada's voters weren't around when Reid got into the Senate. Nevada is a state built on gambling, this seems like a good bet to me.

Or will we find the last political warhorse who lost a statewide race or hold some obscure legislative post and hand the keys off to him?

Stop looking for old jalopies. The Republican party is not going to thrive in the future running its own version of "cash for clunkers". Time for the bright new models!  

There's a concept people in the suburban Northeast of mild prosperity are very familiar with

"Certified Pre-Owned"  

If one is a fan of pro or college sports around here , one is inundated with ads on YES and ESPN, as well as the network sports recap shows, beseeching one to buy a slightly driven and sterling condition Benz, Beemer or Lexus coming off lease.

I knew a guy who did this and got a Benz convertible quite cheap. Helped him get PI clients for his practice and was fun to drive on moonlit summer nights from Stone Harbor to Wildwood back in the day. He used the dough he saved to buy a house.

You get a value buying certified pre-owned--getting a luxury car for Nissan prices; but you realise that there's only so many miles left in the creampuff. Still, a good deal for the appearance concious. 

But I'm not sure this is a great political strategy. Nonetheless, the NRSC is looking almost exclusively at elder statesmen in their candidate recruitment.

This week Charlie Crist announced for the Florida senate seat he ran and lost for in 1998. Sure he's won a few times since for AG and Governor and he is quite popular, but Marco Rubio is the fresh face in this race.

Likewise, the NRSC first backed the 79 year old Arlen Specter and when he became Harry Reid;' headache, thought the answer was the 64 year old Tom Ridge; first elected to federal office in 1982.

We are running Roy Blunt in Missouri. He was first elected Secretary of State there in 1984. At that point his son Matt was 14. Matt's already been elected Governor and stepped down after a difficult term. Back to the Future?

The NRSC is likewise trying to get a near 70 something to run in DE (Mike Castle) and a 60 something is their favored candidate in CT ( Rob Simmons). OK, the blue state benches are somewhat thin, but there is a 42 year old candidate running in CT as well. (Sam Caligiuri)

It's not just the Senate, I recall seeing that the ageless Tommy Thompson may seek the Governorship again in Wisconsin, having first won it in 1986.

I'm not going to disparage any of these individual candidates. Each may well be the strongest possible candidate available in their state this year. The problem is that at a point when the party needs to introduce "new models"   the Beltway brain trust is trying to give our old reliables a tune-up, a detailing, and then send them off down the road.

We may win a few seats this year doing this, but we will find many of these folks retiring after a single term and have to hope we build a bench in the meantime. And when we are gasping for breath with younger voters, we are wasting a cycle by not promoting candidate who represent Generation X and Generation Y.

Lots of people buy Certified Pre-Owned. The problem is: almost all of them really wanted to buy a new model. What if the competition offers one at a reasonable price? 

Missouri has an odd habit of chewing up and spitting out gubernatorial candidates who then go on to become U.S. Senators. This pattern has repeated itself with Jim Talent (lost GOV in '00, won SEN in '02) and Claire McCaskill (lost GOV in '04, won SEN in '06). We could see a repeat of this pattern with State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the Gubernatorial primary to Kenny Hulshof in '08, and could well run for Senate in '10. 

Folks around here were pretty supportive of Steelman in the primary last year, and for reasons that will sound familiar: she took on the good ol' boy network in the state with a promise to zero out pork. Not one member of Missouri's Republican Congressional delegation supported Steelman in the primary, yet she came within 4 points of beating the heavily favored Hulshof. 

It was probably for the best. The toxic political environment, particularly with outgoing Gov. Blunt's low approval ratings, probably rendered any Republican nominee DOA. However, the 2010 Senate picture is looking bright with several top recruits in marquee races and Missouri is a state McCain won. 

To face likely Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan in the fall, Steelman will need to overcome a familiar face: Roy Blunt, House Republican whip from 2003 to 2007 and Matt Blunt's father. Blunt announced his campaign this week and Steelman didn't waste a minute reminding people of her interest in the seat. 

Buckle your seatbelts for what's likely to be one of the blockbuster races of the '10 cycle, not just in the general, but in the primary as well. 

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

I've been involved with many facets of many different types of campaigns: local school board, city council, state legislature, statewide gubernatorial, congressional, ballot initiative, and in-state presidential organizations. When I occassionally speak at campaign management and organization seminars, I am often asked the question: what is the most important part of the campaign? That question is so hard to answer because (1) campaigns are short-term "fire-fighting" operations as much as they are long-term strategic organziations, and (2) each part of the campaign (or at least a good campaign) is interconnected.

Yes, most of the money that gets spent is on paid media, and some will say that because of this, fundraising is the most important facet. While I don't disagree, something that I focus a lot of my attention on is GOTV efforts, a low-cost and high-importance category that has to be planned from the very beginning of the campaign but is executed in the last 72 hours.

So here are a few items of interest that all deal with GOTV efforts: