Rob Simmons

Chris Dodd has a polling profile reminscent of NJ Governor Jon Corzine. He's behind, he's been behind for a long while, and the poll internals indicate he's likely to stay behind.

Given that the election is less than a year away, how could Dodd eke out a victory?

Have an opponent with high negatives. Thankfully for him, one is already in the race.

Five Republicans are in the race now. Former Congressman Rob Simmons has yet to run TV ads, but has residual name ID in central and eastern CT from his days in Congress. He is leading  Dodd by 11 points.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has run TV ads . He is leading Dodd by 7 points.

The other three candidates--Linda McMahon, Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff--all are in effective dead heats with Dodd in the 43-41% range.  So they are equal, right?

No. McMahon is the weakest of the lot.  Neither Caligiuri or Schiff have spent dime one on TV ads, while McMahon has blanketed the state--even running ads on NYC TV. Yet she fares no better than the more frugal candidates in the race.

The secret here is while McMahon is buying name recognition, much of it is already negative. 

According to Quinnipiac Simmons's image is now 40% favorable , 10% unfavorable. His rating with unaffiliated voters is 42% favorable- 7% unfavorable.

Linda McMahon did not make such a good first impression.    She rates at 20% favorable to 13% unfavorable.  14% of unaffiliates and 15% of men already have a negative impression of the wrestling mogul.

Amazingly, more people in CT dislike Linda McMahon after a few weeks in elective politics than dislike Rob Simmons after nearly 20 years at  the trade.

The rule of thumb is that a challenger's early numbers usually have to run 2 to 1 favorable to have a shot at an incumbent. McMahon's slick campaign ain't getting the split she needs. And Lord knows what's going to happen if and when Dodd unloads some negatives on her. Sure she'll have plenty of cash to respond, but methinks Chris Dodd will enjoy the mudfest. It's not like his numbers can go much further down.

Now one would think Dodd's dream---a rookie opponent with high and rising negatives--couldn't come true. But it might due to the quirks of the CT GOP and our geography.

Rob Simmons is very well known in eastern CT, which does not have many registered Republicans.  But he is not well known in heavily Republican Fairfield County, which is served by NYC TV.    McMahon's been on those stations; Simmons never has.

I suspect the reason the ballot test for the CT primary is now 28% Simmons - 17% McMahon is heavily due to Simmons having low visibility in the southwestern part of CT.

So all of McMahon's millions got her the same ballot test as the candidates not spending money, and the highest negative ratings in the Republican field.

I suggest CT Republicans take a long hard look at these poll internals. When a candidate makes a tepid first impression, it usually doesn;t improve by just pouring resources into the same suboptimal message.

And if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of the weakened Dodd now after spending millions, why would she be when her negatives inevitably rise?

Let's not do Chris Dodd any favors, please

The Latest Quinnipiac poll is out, and Dodd is still down.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

He loses as well to Linda McMahon and Tom Foley, and is in a dead heat with Sam Caligiuri and Peter Schiff

Why?  Because CT voters don;t find him trustworthy and don't think he cares about their issues.They also don;t think he's doing a a good job on the economy.

Support for the Democratic health plan, although higher here than most places, is slipping.

The good news for Dodd, if any, is that Simmons does face a primary challenge of significance from the "Wild RINO". But in a matter of weeks she's raised her negative rating almost as fast as her positive rating. Oops!

Chris Christie had a primary too, Didn;t help Corzine. And the pattern of Q polls on Dodd is looking more and more like the pattern of polls on Corzine before his failed re-election bid.

It had been the topic of lots of rumors in CT political circles over the past few weeks, but at 5pm tonight Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell ended the speculation.

She will not seek re-election in 2010

Needless to say, there's a lot of speculation now as to the proximate cause. Rell's incredibly positive image took a hit over the summer due to the state budget crisis; her effort to force fiscal conservatism resulted in a state budget agreement she expressed little enthusiasm for. It's hard to be a moderate Republican and stay popular when you have to tell a ravenous liberal legislature the cupboard is bare.

I think the bigger reason is Rell is a 63 year old woman with a chronically ill husband.  Can't fault that as a reason for retirement.

This of course shuffles the deck for the 2010 election with Rell's Lieutenant Governor, Mike Fedele, seeking to run as the GOP candidate. Other possiblities are State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and State House Minority Leader Larry Cafero.  None of them are household names, which has led some to wonder if Senate candidate Rob Simmons might be lobbied to change races.

As for the Democrats, the most notorious candidate is 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont.  No word if that causes Joe Lieberman to endorse a Republican. Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy and Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz have been running for months, but might be eclipsed by the Lamont entry.

The Democrats haven;t won an election for Governor in CT since 1986. Their chances of breaking the streak improved tonight.    

In the wake of NY 23  all eyes pointed to the Club for Growth to ascertain where they would jump in next to promote fiscally conservative candidates. And in light of this article, one wonders if they have CT in mind as one of their next venues  

Beyond Florida, other establishment Republicans may be looking over their shoulders. Chocola, a former House Republican from Indiana, noted that he served with Rep. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.), both running for the Senate.

“They’re both good guys, but they don’t fit the bill as Club for Growth candidates,” he said.

Before his organization decides to jump in, however, he said the group has to see how those races develop, and whether a clear “Club” alternative surfaces.

“The best Kirk and Simmons can expect is that we leave them alone,” Chocola said.

So, Simmons, who has had to revise prior positions on cap and trade; as well as card check, and recently made a rather conciliatory statement on the public option, might find himself not just  overlooked by the fiscal conservative masterminds, but even challenged by a serious committment of time and resources by the Club.  The Club may not always succeed, but their targets are always aware the Club tried.

So, who would the Club for Growth think would be a viable opponent for Chris Dodd?  Who is fiscally conservative enough to warrant their support, a candidate capable of actually winning against Dodd in the general election, and a candidate who actually could use their support?.

There are four other Republicans in the U.S. Senate race besides Simmons. I believe we can write off two names.  Linda McMahon is , of course, "the Wild RINO". Besides, why should the Club send some of its limited money to CT to subsidize a self-funding billionaire? 

Peter Schiff, the former Ron Paul advisor, is certainlly in favor of limited government, but his agenda is so doctrinaire as to make him a very poor investment of Club resources. Perhaps Idaho is ready for 180 proof libertarianism; CT, not so much. Besides, his campaign to date has just done moneybombs and has no traction on the ground.

That leaves Tom Foley and Sam Caligiuri. Foley has been running cute ads with babies, but he's never run a political campaign and whether he can win an election is an open question.

There's one candidate running in CT right now who a) has a proven record of fiscal conservatism and b) has a proven record of winning elections. That's Sam Caligiuri.

2010 might be exactly the year to run a state senator who stood up against a Governor in his own party to vote "no" on an ultimately disasterous state budget. And that made Sam Caligiuri the only CT State Senator to oppose a budget that left the state in a huge deficit. 

It might also be a good year to run a candidate who won a formerly Democratic legislative seat in the Democratic tsunami of 2006.      

And given the issue environment, it might make sense to run a candidate praised for his ability on the stump and described as a "proud Reagan Republican"

I have no idea what the decision making processes at the Club are. Certaintly Rob Simmons is a far cry from the elasticity of Charlie Crist--Simmons is a good guy and generally helpful to other Republicans.  But the Club is looking for alternative to the "Certified Pre-Owned Candidates".

Sam Caligiuri is the sort of guy they would be looking at in Connecticut. And, they did sound like they wanted to play, now didn't they?

It's Mischief Night tonight, and I hear the "Wild RINO". Linda McMahon has picked out her Halloween costume for tomorrow evening.

(Try not to scare Rahm Emanuel!, Linda)

One thing that Ms. McMahon is eager to portray is being the self-reliant hardscrabble businesswoman who rose to billions solely through single minded hard work and perseverance.

And just like the sport: Wrestling's fake. And so is the WWE's true committment to free enterprise.

That is, unless your definition of "free enterprise" includes sinking one's snout deep, deep into the public trough guzzling corporate welfare.

From the Journal-Inquirer.

A top aide to Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Linda E. McMahon today defended her company’s acceptance of millions of dollars in state tax credits, as both Republican and Democratic opponents pilloried her for what they called McMahon’s “stimulus package” and “taxpayer-funded bailout.”The attacks by former 2nd District Congressman Robert R. Simmons, the leading Republican seeking to unseat U.S. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, and by a Dodd surrogate, state Democratic Party spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan, came after the state subsidies to World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. were reported Thursday by the Journal Inquirer. 

The newspaper cited state records that show WWE has collected nearly $3 million in digital and media tax credits, most of which were issued just eight weeks before McMahon resigned her position as its chief executive officer to run for office.

Yep, Linda McMahon's immensely profitable wrestling empire gets subsidized by the Connecticut taxpayer, who are watching the income tax raised on the top bracket, public services reduced, and the state try and borrow its way through the recession. Indeed, unionized state employees even agreed to concessions, which is more than can be said about the state's would-be entertainment titans.

The apologists for the state's highly subsidized entertainment industry accuse McMahon critics of "jumping the shark" .  You see, it was other politicians who wrote these lucrative credits into the law.

Sorry, none of them are spending millions denouncing bailouts when they run a profitable corporation that takes them themselves.  It's "Happy Days" alright for the McMahon family, but the average CT taxpayers feels like they are in remake of "Jaws" 

So the news media has concluded that Ms. McMahon, whose family controls the vast percentage of the WWE's stock, converted tax credits from the state into funds available for her campaign. Maybe this is a form of "public campaign finance"

But it gets worse.

Despite the fact that the WWE was very profitable notwithstanding the recession, shortly before she left her CEO post  at the WWE Linda McMahon went on a frenzy of layoffs and cost-cutting intended to raise profit margins.

Jan. 9, 2009, 9:38 a.m. ESTMcMahon & Co. has announced that it is cutting 10% of its staff, which should result in annual cost savings of approximately $8 million. In exchange for that, the company will take a one-time charge of $3 million. WWE also noted that the company has completed an evaluation of its operating and capital expenditures and has identified "additional efficiencies." In short, more cost cuts are on the way. The company's ultimate goal is to trim $20 million from its expense structure in 2009. 

I'm the last person to lambaste a business that cuts costs to stave off competition, or to stockpile cash, or to pay off lenders and creditors.  And we are going to see a lot of very necessary cuts like that in Corporate America. But the WWE is essentially a monopoly in pro wrestling, they have consistently earned a profit and have $200 million in cash with virtually no long term debt..     So why the urgency to cut costs?  Well, as I noted the McMahon family owns 70% of the WWE  Let's apply 70% of the $20 million in cut costs; well that means $14 million inures to the McMahon family..

So,does the Wild RINO gets to finance most of her U.S. Senate campaign with "new money" without having to dip into the family fortune? Sure looks it.

McMahon's campaign has run a TV ad telling folks how tough it was for her and Vince starting out, even having to declare bankruptcy and losing their house starting their business.

Hey Linda, like that's special. Please.

What really sickens me is it appears she is paying for this ad using the extra profits she earned after firing over 60 Connecticut employees.  

How many of those 60 WWE's employees are going to lose their house so their old boss can finance her U.S. Senate bid without dipping into the accumulated family fortune?  In 2006 Joe Lieberman eviscerated the campaign of Ned Lamont after running this ad.    

It's tough wearing a costume as a free market Republican and expecting people to believe you; Linda.

Especially when you destroy jobs, not create them . And collect subsidies. Not cut them.

We're onto the trick, Linda. You already got the treat.

We've learned more this week about liberal Republican wrestling promoter Linda McMahon, a/k/a "the Wild RINO"

For one thing, we've ascertained that she must be the Pinch Sulzberger approved Republican in the field of candidates in Connecticut. On Sunday, the New York Times decided to put its candidate profile of Mrs. McMahon on page A1 

A Senate Candidate Accustomed to Being Thrown in the Ring

“I don’t think anyone should ever question Linda’s resolve or tenacity,” said Dick Ebersol, the chairman of NBC Universal Sports, who has collaborated on projects with the McMahons. “If anybody thinks she is the little woman, they are out of their minds. She put the business together.”

OK, any question who the MSM is in the tank for in this race, folks?

Jeez, you wonder what's going through Rob Simmons's head about now. All he did was spend a career in the CIA and on Capitol Hill, a decade in the CT Legislature, won a Democrat congressional district three times, and he's been obscured by someone who produced a soap opera on steroids.   

What is not going through Republican minds in Connecticut is much respect for this stuff. Just this week, a legislator from McMahon's  home town endorsed the thoughtful conservative in the field,  State Senator Sam Caligiuri

 “Representative Camillo’s endorsement is very humbling. As a relative newcomer to the political scene, Fred brings the fresh perspective of an outsider who is very much in touch with the people he represents. The Greenwich community is fortunate to have such a bright, rising star representing them in the General Assembly, and I am honored to have his support,” said Caligiuri.

And McMahon's trouble extend to the stump. Here's what a Hartford Courant political reporter said of her appearance this week in Windsor. "her delivery is about as interesting as listening to an assistant principal read the morning announcements"

On the other hand, Caligiuri's performance won praise

 I'd give Caligiuri a B+ for his engaging, lively stump speech, which told us about how he snatched Waterbury from the jaws of corruption and reminded us of his immigrant roots. He's a proud Reagan Republican and he earns points for at least mentioning the achievement gap.

One of the reasons that McMahon is having problems on the stump is she keeps having to explain why she claims to be a Republican today despite having done little in the past to demonstrate a modicum of interest in the party's agenda or principles.

Here's another story about McMahon's painful performance in Windsor.  

The tens of thousands of dollars given to the Democratic party and Emanuel is simply the cost of doing business, McMahon said Thursday night following a meeting of the candidates at a Windsor restaurant.

“I’ve been the CEO of a publicly traded company, which has given money to both Democrats and Republicans,” McMahon said.

McMahon said it had nothing to do with politics or personal beliefs. She said she has known Rahm Emanuel’s brother, Ari Emanuel, for years.

Ari Emanuel runs a talent agency in Hollywood, California, which does business with WWE, she said. She said he called up and let her know his brother would be in Stamford and “may do a little arm twisting.” She said when she gave money to Emanuel, he was still a Congressman from Illinois, not the current president’s chief of staff.

OK, a billionaire who thinks throwing cash at liberal Democrats (Emanuel was getting Pelosi elected House Speaker at the time) is just a "cost of doing business" Now THERE'S a committed principled conservative if I ever heard one. Or perhaps she's a plant by her good friends the Emanuel family sent to muck up the Connecticut primary and save Chris Dodd's sorry keester.   

While we are on the topic of Rahm Emanuel and his brothers, maybe we could elicit an opinion from the Wild RINO on the topic of "death panels"....then again, she might think it's a new form of steel cage bout 

Maybe subsidizing leftists makes friends for Linda in Hollywood, the White House and with the New York Times, but it most certaintly is not endearing her to her opponents,

"For me it’s not just business,” former U.S. Congressman Rob Simmons said.

Simmons said McMahon’s donations undermined his efforts in 2006 and allowed his opponents, who are now expanding government to win elected office.

Simmons wasn't done

“If donating tens of thousands of dollars to Democrats was ‘the cost of doing business’ for Linda McMahon and her professional wrestling empire, one wonders what she aimed to get in return for her generosity. This sort of influence peddling would not make her ‘a different kind of Senator.’ It would make her exactly the same as the one we have.”

Sam Caligiuri wasn't very pleased with this lame effort to defend the indefensible, either. His spokeswomen issued this statement.

“What we’re hearing from Republicans as we travel around the state is that they are insulted by Ms. McMahon working against their efforts to elect Republicans, then trying to sweep these personal contributions under the rug as if no one would ever notice.  Pro wrestling might be fake, but this practice of choosing expediency over principle is the very real way in which Washington currently works, and is exactly what Sam is fighting to fix.  If McMahon is already a part of the problem, it is hard to believe she can ever become part of the solution,” said Grossman

Linda McMahon says she'll be a "different kind of Senator", but if that means she'll be a liberal glad-handing gazillionaire there's quite enough already, don'tcha think?  We need someone who cares more about folks in Hamden than Hollywood.

There's nothing "different" about hypocrisy in politicians, Linda

====UPDATE====

In this morning's' New London Day, a columnist suggests that McMahon will run a third party bid for the Senate similar to that of her political mentor, former liberal Connecticut Governor and WWE Board member Lowell Weicker

If this wouldn't be a premeditated sabotage of the effort to oust Chris Dodd, I don't know what else would be

Remember long ago when Chris Dodd first faltered in the polls.....like in the winter of '09.

It didn't get any better for him.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone poll finds that Republican challenger Rob Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% in an early look at next year’s potential match-up. Five percent (5%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are not sure.

 

While Simmons, a former congressman, is the strongest early challenger to the Democratic incumbent, there are several other Republicans in the running. Dodd finds himself essentially even with state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley and Peter Schiff, the high-profile president of Euro Pacific Capital. In each of those match-ups, Dodd earns between 40% and 43% of the vote while the Republicans all fall in the same range.

Rasmussen's internals are rather gruesome ,too, as 39% of CT voters have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Dodd. Mind you, this is in a state whether both President Obama and his health care plan are still fairly well received as per Rasmussen.

You have to wonder what Dodd has to do to make his neighbors feel the love again. He's had a tremendous amount of press over the last few weeks dealing with his recovery from prostate cancer    , getting a dismissal of a an ethics complaint,  his eulogy for his best bud Teddy Kennedy, 

and getting a health care bill out of the committee he was running for Ted.

And it didn't move the needle a millimeter.

Yep, looks like this sign might be true.

I argue that Republicans could actually win the environmental argument, improve energy efficiency and foreign policy issues and kneecap Democratic attempts to impose cap-and-trade by supporting the elimination of the payroll tax in exchange for a carbon tax. Not only would be good policy (the payroll tax reduces positive externalities; the carbon tax reduces negative externalities), it would take a central issue off the table for Democrats.

So I'm heartened to see a promising Republican candidate who sees the opportunity...

Instead of turning to a complex system of cap-and-trade credits to combat global warming, the country should consider a carbon tax that is “more simple and straightforward” for businesses and consumers, a Republican U.S. Senate candidate said Monday. “I’m not fooled by cap and trade,” said Rob Simmons, who is angling to unseat U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd in next year’s election. [...]

He said the government ought to “call it what it is” — a carbon tax — and take on the issue directly. Generally, most of those pushing for a carbon tax instead argue that its simplicity would prevent the need for more bureaucratic oversight, drive out speculators and offer the chance to return any taxes collected through payroll or income tax reductions.

Improve the environment, reduce congestion, reduce dependence on oil, pay less money to tyrannies, elimate the payroll tax, beat Democrats at their own game and do it all without raising total taxes at all or giving government (or industry) more control over the market? I can get onboard with that. 

UPDATE: (sigh) Never mind.  See the comment section at the news article, where the Simmons campaign manager says "Rob Simmons does not support a carbon tax. He does believe that supporters of "cap and trade" should be more straightforward about their intentions and propose a carbon tax if that is what they desire so the American people can make a clear judgment about the consequences of such a policy - a policy Rob opposes."

We could eliminate the payroll tax and take this environmental issue off the table for Democrats. But no, Republicans are content to keep the payroll tax and settle for complaining about Democrats.

Oh yes, for all those who think Connecticut politics is a world of preppie decorum, we have received word that World Wrestling Chairwoman Linda McMahon is thinking about jumping into the race against Chris Dodd.

McMahon recently was appointed by Governor Rell to the State Board of Education and was confirmed; evidently convincing the Democratic controlled legislature her expertise in running a major local corporation overcame some of the less, hmmm, restrained, elements of their presentations.

That said, Democrats are already posting on local blogs the WWE has both received major tax credit assistance from the state at the same time they've laid off employees. Yep, times are tough, but they'll throw as many chairs at her as her employees have thrown at each other.

Besides, while she apparently spoke at the 2000 GOP convention she is also reputed to be a significant contributor to Rahm Emanuel's committee, and that's a pretty big problem in my eyes,

I'm left asking one question: Why?  The race already has a popular former Congressman, an up and coming legislator, and a wealthy former ambassador. It's not like there's a huge void that we need to fill right about now?

Indeed, where we may need a candidate is against freshman Democrat Jim Himes. At this writing, he's going to face someone with far less financial firepower than McMahon. But I suppose they all want to start at the top....sigh...  

I'm sure think this is a day Chris Dodd looks forward to ending

Right around sunrise, Quinnipiac released their latest poll results. In recent weeks, Dodd and his special interest allies have spent probably over $1 million on a TV blitz promoting Dodd's credit card and health care bills. So I expected Dodd to be temporarily given some political health.

Nope. Since the last poll Rob Simmons actually increased his lead over Dodd.  

Simmons now leads by 9 points

And each of the other Republicans is in a dead heat with Dodd.

True , Dodd's job approval improved from an utterly disgusting level to a merely dismal 40%; but it seems the only people swayed were partisan Democrats; he's now crushing the unknown Merrick Alpert in a putative primary. But by a 2/1 margin, CT voters simply don't find Dodd trustworthy. And that's hard to spin your way out of.

I have to think that this reverberated on the Hill. Dodd had assumed the mantle of trying to write the public option health care bill when his BFF Ted Kennedy fell ill, and actually got a bill out of his committee on a party line vote. And then his home state---dark blue as they come---gives him a raspberry for all his efforts (playing attention, Orrin, you dummy!)  

 So, by day's end, the Democratic leadership on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue was in disarray; shelving the health care issue until the fall. As Michael Barone points out. "Thursday have been bad days for the Democrats’ health care efforts this month....It looks like July 23 is another bad Thursday for the Dems".

You know, it's just a bit after 8pm. There's still time for something else bad to happen to Chris Dodd before he deals with Frriday.