Mark Begich

Based on the Mortgage Cramdown vote, these Democrats are our best hope for beating ObamaCare.

1) Max Baucus (MT) - (406) 761-1574 - Senate Finance Committee Chair

2) Michael Bennet (CO) - (719) 328-1100

3) Robert Byrd (W. Va) - (304) 264-4626

4) Thomas Carper (DE) - (302) 856-7690

5) Byron Dorgan (ND) - (701) 852-0703

6) Tim Johnson (SD) - (605) 332-8896

7) Mary Landrieu (LA) - (337) 436-6650

8) Blanche Lincoln (AR) - (870)382-1023

9) Ben Nelson (NE) - (308) 631-7614

10) Mark Pryor (AR) - (501) 324-6336

11) Arlen Specter (PA) - 570-346-2006 - I Know; just think about how much fun it'll be when he stabs the Dems in the Back!!!

12) John Tester (MT) - (406) 365-2391

Honorable Mention - Evan Bayh (IN), Mark Begich (AK), Kent Conrad (ND), Bill Nelson (FL)

We can Beat this Thing!!!

I hope this helps.

Cahnman out.

Back in December, I wrote about the need for the Right to use an "agenda of equal opportunity" to look beyond simple proposals involving government transparency and start thinking about wide-scale proposals for earmark, budget, bureaucratic and tax reform. Well, it looks like simple transparency proposals are something some Republicans on Capitol Hill should start with.

Big kudos today to Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska (yes, I am giving praise to a Democrat) who has decided to post his daily schedule on his new Senate website, as he promised during his campaign. Beginning with this month, Begich is archiving his schedule on his site and is making it searchable. The Sunlight Foundation encouraged other lawmakers to follow Begich's lead and "provide a similar archive of daily meetings." Throughout his terms as mayor of Anchorage, Begich would post responses to comments under his own name on the Anchorage Daily News's Alaska Politics Blog. I'm sure some on his staff went nuts over it, but it shows that he's willing and disciplined enough to communicate with his constituents, one-on-one, in new ways.

Unfortunately, some aren't so open, even to meeting those that want to support the conservative cause. A couple months ago, through a senior staffer, I invited a Republican senator (who shall go unnamed at this point) to the Heritage Foundation's Conservative Bloggers Briefing. What was the answer I received? I was told that it wouldn't be a good idea for the Senator to meet with bloggers in an open setting, out of the fear that he/she might get attacked. I was disappointed, but not surprised. Many on Capitol Hill, and other lawmakers, out of an abundance of caution refuse to communicate early and often, and make themselves, and their actions, more transparent.

In a world where online reputation management is now an enormously large part of reputation management, taking a few risks by being more open is both necessary and reaps large rewards. The proof? It's working at the state level. Pennsylvania House Republican leader Sam Smith recently released a 12-point government reform plan, which includes dollar one reporting of campaign contributions, a searchable database for all state spending, and limiting state contractors from using non-public information for their own gain.

I know it's a message that has been repeated by many who blog here, but it's worth repeating: while we're in the minority, the Right needs to hold Democrats accountable while we come up with new solutions to reform government. We can kill those two birds with one stone: more transparency initiatives.

 There is a lot of confusion and misinformation that I am seeing about the Senate races that currently hang in the balance in the states of Minnesota, Alaska, and Georgia. The Democrats hold 57 Senate seats as of this writing, and were they to win all three of these contested races they would hit the magic number of 60. 

This of course can not be allowed to happen, and it is imperative that Republicans mobilize in full force in order to prevent these seats from turning to Democratic hands. All three are seats that are filled by incumbent Republicans, one who has now been conviced on several felonies, which complicates his bid for re-election.

Minnesota, could potentially be the closest and therefor most hotly contested race. As of this writing, because of corrupt vote counting, or fair vote counting, depending of course on your party, incumbent Norm Coleman leads by .007% of the vote, or just 206 ballots. Anything under .5% triggers a mandatory recount, which will begin on November 18th. Even before the recount, Franken has been gaining. On election night, Coleman led by more than 700 votes, but has lost ground quickly. It is interesting to note, the gains Franken has made outperforms how Democrats including Obama performed in Minnesota, which raises some eyebrows. I believe there is some peculiar vote counting going on, for this reason. This race will be decided by court battles and long hand recounts. In the end, I think Franken is in the stronger position, despite the current tally. I believe Coleman is in serious trouble, and has a good chance of losing his seat, in fact, I believe Franken will win it, and I call this seat for the Democrats. 

In Alaska, the race is very close as well. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens leads by only 1.5% over Democratic challenger Mark Begich, a 3,257 vote lead. Stevens will most likely pull it out, despite his conviction and the close race. However, should he win, it is almost certain he will resign, which under Alaska law will trigger a special election. The only reason Mark Begich came close to defeating Stevens is because Stevens is seen as corrupt, a fresh non incumbent, young Republican would easily win a special election regardless of how strong a contender the Democrats throw at the race. Many think should this scenario come to pass, Sarah Palin is likely to run to fill the seat, she is immensely popular in Alaska and would win the seat easily. This seat is safe for Republicans, it is just unclear which Republican will be sitting in it when the dust settles. 

The last race is truly a toss up. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss won the popular vote, but fell .2% short of the 50% mark needed to avoid a run off. Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate, siphoned 4% of the votes off, almost ensuring the Dec. 2nd runoff. Essentially, turnout is the key in this election. There is no presidential vote this time around, and this will work to make turnout very low, most likely below 45%. Whoever gets the most turnout wins, as the Libertarian is not a factor this time, come Dec. 2nd, one man will have a plurality of the vote. Traditionally, the Democrats get-out-the-vote machine is superior to that of the Republicans, and I am very worried about Chambliss' seat. There is no way to make a good prediction, but if I was forced to say who is in the better position, I would say Democrat Jim Martin. Again, this race is very close though, and it is the only one that will be decided by the voters. 

By my tally, the Senate balance of power looks like this. Currently, the Democrats have 57 seats, I predice they will win Coleman's seat in Minnesota, bringing them to 58. I predict a Republican will win the Alaska seat, but I have not the slightest clue who. This keeps the balance at 58. Should Martin win the Georgia seat, which is more likely I think then Chambliss winnning, then the balance shifts to 59, one vote shy of 60.

Of course, Democrats do not need 60 to get past a filibuster. With 59 votes, they can almost always pick off a moderate Republican to support the measure and ram legislation through. Effectively, the Democrats have a working majority in both houses, and they have a president in the White House who is more than willing to sign there legislation. Now, all that remains to be seen is how they will use, or abuse, this new power. 

The trial of Sen. Ted Stevens is almost over, with the case now in the hands of the jury. The trial hasn't been free of drama: the prosecution mishandled evidence to the point where the case was almost dismissed, and eleven of the jurors asked the judge to kick off the twelfth for "violent outbursts." Today, the judge replaced one of the jurors whose father passed away with an alternate. With nine days to go until election day, the verdict will with all likelihood be handed down before the weekend.

When the indictment of Stevens came down, my initial reaction was that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich would be the next United States Senator from the Last Frontier. But after the initial earthquake, the aftershock worked in Stevens' favor. Alaskans learned more details about the indictment, which essentially came down to "purposefully" leaving certain things off of his Senate financial disclosure forms, a charge where the motive is very hard to prove. I was shocked that this is all that the government had on him. It also didn't help that Begich himself essentially committed the same "crime" and "plead guilty" by paying a $1,420 fine to the Alaska Public Offices Commission, the state's financial disclosure watchdog agency. With an initial 13 point deficit immediately after the indictment, undecided Alaskans rallied around Stevens before and during the trial. His campaign rans some very good ads, and he is now anywhere between up 2 point to down 2 points in various polls: for all intents and purposes, a tie.

Bottom line: acquittal for Stevens = big win for Stevens, conviction for Stevens = big win for Begich. I know there are a lot of conservatives who read and write on this blog that aren't fans of Stevens, and I understand. (I've promised some people a piece on why I still support Ted, and that should be coming soon.) But it's been a weird past few months for Alaska from this trial to McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. Let's take a look and the stakeholders affected from the eventual verdict of this trial.

Senate Filibuster

Let's assume that Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are in the Democratic caucus, and make the count from 51. Shaheen def. Sununu (NH), Warner def. Gilmore (VA), Merkley def. Smith (OR), Udall def. Schaffer (CO), Udall def. Pearce (NM), Franken def. Coleman (MN), Hagan def. Dole (NC), Musgrove def. Wicker (MS), Lunsford def. McConnell (KY), and Martin def. Chambliss (GA). That makes it 61. The likelihood of those last two races (KY and GA) going blue are slim but possible. So let's make it 59.

Political junkies might be staying up through the night to watch Alaska's Senate race, and I doubt that the average juror even knows what a filibuster is.

The Campaign of Mark Begich

The Stevens campaign's strategy is clear if he's acquitted: continue their message of his long list of contributions to the state. On the other hand, Mark Begich has to be the most frustrated Congressional candidate in the country. First, the selection of Gov. Palin to the national ticket is limiting the precious amount of free media he was used to getting as Mayor. Second, without the indictments, Begich was probably the favorite to win the election (but not the clear favorite) because of what the "ethical cloud" over Stevens. With that cloud maybe clearing a few days before the election, Begich faces a big loss if Stevens is cleared of all charges.

Third, and most importantly, any strategy Begich runs is a lose-lose scenario. After the indictments came down, Begich couldn't slap Stevens around because of the overwhelming support Ted got after the indictments. The DSCC took on that role with a series of ads and mailers that have gained no traction whatsoever. Plus, the Alaska Republican Party is running their own offense against Begich, running ads about his own financial problems. Begich also can't just run an "issue-based" campaign as he promised. So just a few days ago, Begich decided to switch gears and start attacking Stevens, which signals that Begich is gambling. Even if Stevens is acquitted, Begich is trying to keep the "cloud" over Stevens. But the fact is that if the acquittal comes, Begich is done.

The AK-AL House Race

It looks as if Don Young is making another comeback. Down double-digits earlier this fall to former State House minority leader, Ethan Berkowitz, the latest polls have him anywhere between 5 to 8 points down. Berkowitz has the same problem as Begich: no free media coverage of his issues. Rural Alaska will hold strong for both Stevens and Young; the question is how much the potential acquittal of Stevens will hold off swing voters in urban Alaska (Anchorage and Fairbanks) from going Berkowitz's way. I still give the advantage to Berkowitz because Young used all of his money against Sean Parnell in the Republican primary. But a Steven acquittal could put him over the top if Young keeps up this momentum.

The Alaska State Legislature

The State Senate is holding at 11 Republicans to 9 Democrats, although the 6 of the Republicans joined the 9 Democrats to form a bipartisan coalition. In all likelihood, this number holds, although there are open Reublican seats in Fairbanks where Republican Cynthia Henry (a former staffer for Ted Stevens) has the advantage over Democrat Joe Paskvan, and in Anchorage where current Republican State Representative Kevin Meyer has the advantage over former Anchorage city councilman Doug Van Etten.

There is no doubt that Palin being at the top of the ticket has helped. McCain went from a shaky single digit lead in Alaska to a healthy double digit lead. The same can be said in the State House, where Republicans have a 23 to 17 advantage. There are about 6 Republican seats and 2 Democratic seats that are in some danger of switching over. The probability is that Democrats will only pick up one or maybe two of the Republican seats. The problem is that there are enough RINOs in the State House that would create a coalition with the Democrats if the Republican advantage was eroded to 21 to 19. A Stevens acquittal would secure a healthy Republican majority. A Stevens conviction will probably mean a State House coalition, or maybe even an outright Democratic majority.

How does this change the political landscape of Alaska? Let's take a look at the difference. Stevens acquittal = Stevens in the Senate, possibly Young staying in the House, and Republican majorities in the state legislature. Stevens conviction = Begich and Berkowitz in the Senate and House, along with at least Democratic-controlled coalitions in the state legislature. Add this to liberal majorities in many city councils across Alaska, Democrats have fertile ground from which to build a blue farm team in a red state.

Never before have 12 people who are not registered voters in the State of Alaska have had so much influence in Alaska, and possibly the potential rubber-stamping of a liberal agenda from the Hill.

Finally! After talking about it in two different posts, a Republican incumbent has taken on Democrat hypocrisy on domestic energy production. Yesterday, I talked about how Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is attempting to balance being pro-development while taking money and ground support from anti-domestic energy production extremist environmentalists.

Last night, Ted Stevens sent a letter to his Democratic opponent, offering use of his Senate office while Begich is in DC fundraising:

"Dear Mark,

"I understand you are in Washington, D.C, to hold a fundraiser for your campaign tomorrow. I hope that you will also find the time while you are here to help address Alaska's and America's energy needs.

"Although you have been hesitant to admit this, Alaskans know that for 40 years most Senate Democrats have routinely blocked efforts to explore and develop our state’s resources. In 1995, after the Congress passed legislation allowing exploration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), President Clinton vetoed that measure."

After outlining a proposal that includes exploration and development in ANWR, the OCS, and incentives for expansion of nuclear power, Stevens urged Begich to start lobbying his Democratic friends now:

"I note that when Senator Jon Tester visited Alaska earlier this year you admitted that you did not raise the ANWR issue with him ...

"I urge you to start today. When you have free time in D.C. or during your fundraiser, talk to the members of the party you want to join in Washington and get them to publicly announce they will support exploration of the coastal plain. Get them to agree to allow a vote on opening the OCS to drilling and providing revenue sharing to states. My request is simple: as you spend time in Washington, D.C., and take campaign contributions from Senate Democrats and their supporters, please try to convince them to remove their objections to developing the full potential of our state. Alaska holds the key to America’s future energy security if your party will allow it.

"If you need any assistance with this effort while in Washington, D.C., be it a place to work or help navigating the Capitol complex, please do not hesitate to ask my office."

Lisa Murkowski used this tactic four years ago against former Gov. Tony Knowles in her tight Senate battle. While this is still just a tactic, it's one that should be used by other vulnerable Republican incumbents in districts where the energy issue plays well. It's a great way to earn free media on an issue that's a winner for us.

That's the tactic ... but what's the strategy? Republicans still need to find ways of merging the energy and economic messages. Congressman Eric Cantor has started this with a "Middle Class Bill of Rights," and other Republican candidates, incumbents and challengers, need to start messaging at the intersection of energy security and economic prosperity for the next 40 days.

The Senate race in Alaska is still alive. Even with Ted Stevens on trial starting this week, he only trails Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by 3.7% according to the latest RCP average.

Essentially, the race comes down to the outcome of the trial: Stevens acquitted = win, Stevens convicted = loss. In a future post, I will talk about why I, as a conservative and an Alaskan, still support Ted Stevens. I know there are many here who aren't fans of him, but I do intend on making the case for why he's much better than the alternative this November. So let me spend some time on his opponent: Mark Begich.

The story on Begich is simple: he'll say anything to get elected. (I've posted before on how he stretches his record as mayor, but the NRSC and the Alaska Republican Party have set that record straight.) Begich says he supports drilling in ANWR and expanding refining capacity in the following ad ...

But Begich not only keeps on taking money from Hollywood and New York liberals that oppose any sort of drilling. He's taken money from potential Senate colleagues that think the same, including PAC dollars from Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Russ Feingold, Dick Durbin, John Kerry, and Barbara Boxer. But it doesn't stop there. Alaska Conversation Voters (ACV), a very powerful anti-drilling-in-ANWR extremist environmentalist grassroots organization, has started running ads against Ted Stevens ...

Begich has not called for these ads to be pulled, and didn't call on the DSCC to pull their presumptuous ads about Stevens' trial, even though Alaska broadcast stations removed them because of their innacuracy. One thing to note about Alaska Conservation Voters is the amount of incredible amount power they have with Democratic candidates in Alaska. It seems like an oxymoron that a rabidly anti-drilling-in-ANWR group would have so much influence in Alaska, but they essentially run the ground operation for Democratic candidates, most of whom are on the record in support of more exploration and production in Alaska. Whose side is Begich really on?

One of the things I would have liked to see vulnerable House Republican incumbents do during the #dontGo movement last month is to pressure their Democratic opponents to push Pelosi for an energy vote. If I were a vulnerable GOP incumbent from Alaska, I would sent out a press release inviting my pro-drilling Democratic opponent to work in my office to convince Democrats this session for a vote, since energy is one of the top issues this election.

With an issue like energy production, we have to expose hypocritical Democrats like Mark Begich, and tell them to either stop taking extremist environmental money or admit that they will just cave into the anti-energy production lobby if they get elected.

The day of reckoning is here for candidates and four ballot measures in the Last Frontier. Polls are open from 7 AM to 8 PM local (11 AM to 12 AM EST). The first results come in at 9 PM local (1 AM EST) ... you bet I'm staying up for this one. I might even nap through dinner time and get up to catch Hillary's speech beforehand.

Here's a summary of the races to watch ... I won't be endorsing candidates, but I will speak out against three of the initiatives. If you want to see a smattering of Alaskan ads, here they are.

U.S. Senate - Republican Primary: With a trial coming up in late September, Ted Stevens is still the favorite in this primary among six other candidates. Former legislator and bank president David Cuddy, who ran against Stevens in 1996, has been seen as the alternative; but his campaign has been quite unexciting. Vic Vickers moved up from Florida and claimed residency starting this January and started running anti-corruption ads; rumor has it that he was a Democrat plant. Think what you may of him, but after the indictment, Stevens came out swinging and the amount of positive response to Ted was nothing short of amazing.

U.S. Senate - Democratic Primary: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run away with this one, but not without getting bruised by former GOP legislator, Alaska Republican Moderate Party leader and now registered Democrat Ray Metcalfe who has been exposing Begich's ties with local real estate developers.

Congress At-Large - Republican Primary: This is the race to watch! Lt. Governor Sean Parnell had been the early favorite, but Kodiak State Rep. Gabrielle Ledoux has run three admittedly good ads which put her from 1% to 10% of the vote in the latest polls. It might be because of that that Don Young and Sean Parnell are within the margin of error. While Sean has received the endorsement of Gov. Sarah Palin, I tend not to put a lot of stock into any endorsement, no matter how popular the endorser. Plus, I'm actually more impressed with Don's ads than I am with Sean's. The Anchorage Daily News' gossip column called Don vs. Sean "Mr. Bluster vs. Mr. Bland."

Congress At-Large - Democratic Primary: This pits establishment candidate Ethan Berkowitz against Diane Benson, who received 40% of the vote against Don Young two years ago. Berkowitz was minority leader for many years in the State House, and ran for Governor two years ago before dropping down before the filing deadline to be Tony Knowles' lite gov candidate. Haven't seen any polling, but Berkowitz seems to be the favorite. I won't be surprised if Benson keeps it close.

In one of the most hotly contested U.S. Senate races in the nation, incumbent Ted Stevens (who has been in the Senate since 1968) will most likely be in a tight race in Alaska with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. (Both candidates have primaries to go through.) Begich comes from the mold of former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles, who lost a Senate race four years ago to junior Senator Lisa Murkowski.

Begich came out with his first ad a few weeks ago, and it is (admittedly) a good ad that starts off by talking about his father who was a Congressman that went missing in a plane accident in the early '70s:

From the outside, Begich looks like a new, fresh candidate that came out of nowhere to be mayor of Alaska's largest city. The fact is that Begich has been a political player with the Democratic Party since the early '80s, when he worked for then Mayor Tony Knowles, and then served on the Anchorage Assembly (city council) for three terms. With a long political history comes a long list of deeds.

Here's a great "ad watch" response from the NRSC, providing some responses to Mark Begich's ad and his time as politician in Anchorage:

It gets more interesting because while Begich has decided to spend his money on TV ads, his Democratic primary opponent, Ray Metcalfe (who was a former Republican legislator and founder of the now defunct Republican Moderate Party of Alaska) has decided to spend his money on a bus to take people on a "tour of Mark Begich's Anchorage". Metcalfe explains in his own words in a local NBC news affiliate story:

"My campaign has purchased a bus, and we're going to start advertising our three-hour tour," Metcalfe said. "We're going to take people around and show them how real estate is used to launder money into the pockets of politicians. We're going to show them the transactions; explain them. It gets pretty hard to deny when you see it."

I encourage everybody to watch the Stevens vs. Begich race closely this fall. We'll see what Stevens can do without much help from the national Republican organization, and what Begich can do with anticipated millions coming in from the DNC and DSCC along with the possible coattails of the Obama campaign opening up multiple field offices in the state.

Thoughts and comments please!