Marco Rubio

Erick Erickson is right.

Let’s be honest. One of the reasons the left is so head over heels in love with the online left is because of the moonbat ability to turn on the cash. [...] [I]f we want to be taken seriously, we need to step up to the plate.

As he says, "the establishment of the Republican Party will keep ignoring us" until the online Right has a tangible impact on the measurable metrics of politics: messaging, mobilization and money.

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At about this time every three months, we have to endure the typical quarterly fundraising roundups. This one from The Hill shows the problem with the genre, headlined "FEC reports show Crist the man to beat in Florida." This in response to Crist raising an eye-popping $4.3 million in the 2nd quarter, against Marco Rubio's $340,000.

Crist may be a slight favorite in the Republican primary, but money will have nothing to do with why.

I bang this drum pretty often, but ask presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney how far early, high dollar bundler support got them. Or Virginia Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe on how much a 10-to-1 cash advantage is worth.

Underfunded candidates like Rubio don't need more money now. The need an argument. A bulletproof argument from a plausible candidate is worth tens of millions of dollars in any primary, overwhelming a financial advantage of any magnitude. While frontrunners confuse high-dollar fundraising for actual grassroots support, a conclusion that headlines like The Hill's do nothing to discourage, smart underdogs would do right to focus on building an impregnable message advantage. Because that's the part that counts for 90% in any electoral victory.

John McCain's campaign was defunct and broke at this point in the race, without money to pay a pollster. Mike Huckabee had no money. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani spent $60 million plus to win a single delegate, attending fundraisers when he should have been in New Hampshire. A leading Republican strategist recently told me that he wonders whether money doesn't wind up making our campaigns worse while the lack of money makes them better and more focused. Look at McCain with no money, vs. McCain with money (pre-implosion and general election).

Crist's fundraising aside, he's still a relatively popular governor with 100% name ID, and so still the "man to beat." But fundraising trophies don't make it so. Complacency is his biggest enemy.

Crist's campaign is the antithesis of Rebuildness. Of Crist's $4.3 million how much was online? How much came from donations of $100 or less? How many people have signed up on his e-mail list since he announced? How many of his supporters would crawl on glass to see him win?

In running a campaign, that latter kind of support is the kind I want, and I think Rubio has it.

And not only that, but he's a particularly strong and plausible kind of grassroots candidate. He's no Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. Had Crist not stepped in, he'd be considered a top recruit and a rising star. Rubio would easily beat Kendrick Meek in a general election.

We have two uniquely talented people running for Senate in a seat we will probably hold in Florida. Instead of elbowing one aside, we should be grabbing the popcorn and watching this one go the distance.

The primary will be close. Among voters who know both, Crist and Rubio are tied. Crist's money will not buy him more name ID or goodwill; only his bully pulpit as Governor can do that, and he's surrendering it. Meanwhile, Rubio's talents as a candidate, his crossover potential, and his appeal to grassroots conservatives mean he has nowhere to go but up. I still think Crist narrowly wins absent a massive screwup, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Recent elections have not been kind to moneyed "frontrunners."

When one considers that Stone is one of Crist's biggest boosters, this is pretty huge:

Florida Musical Chairs By Roger Stone Governor Charlie Crist's decision to run for an open seat in the U.S. Senate instead of seeking re-election as Governor has roiled the waters in Florida. Although Governor Crist is popular, voter reaction to a charge that he has "walked out on the job" before keeping his pledge to lower property taxes and cut insurance rates has not yet been determined. The Governor has not put forward much of a rationale for his candidacy; he most certainly cannot claim that there is nothing left to do in Tallahassee. Naked ambition is rarely an acceptable rationale for voters when politicians explain why they should be elected. Former House Speaker Marco Rubio has wisely announced his intention to challenge Crist in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. This is a no-lose proposition for Marco because losing with 45% would be a victory and winning with 51% would be a victory. Should Rubio bleed Crist badly, the young former Speaker will have lined himself up as the front runner for the Republican nomination for Bill Nelson's seat. If Rubio wins the primary in an upset, he will be even money against any Democrat. It is an article of faith among Florida Democrats that Alex Sink, the State elected CFO, will be the next Governor. I think they may be picking out their inaugural gowns a little too early. While Attorney General Bill McCollum has two statewide losses in his track record, he will easily wrap up the Republican nomination and will mount a better campaign than his previous efforts. Crist could be damaged by a "closer than expected" primary win. His broken promise to "make property taxes drop like a rock" and his failure to reduce insurance rates are even more powerful issues in the general election than they are in the primary. Crist can expect a level of scrutiny in the primary and general that is very unlike the way the media operated in 2006 when Crist was the darling of the conservatives running against former liberal Tom Gallagher. The media has soured on the "tanned one." Crist will also find fundraising more difficult. Between the federal limits and the restrictions on state officials raising federal dollars, it is unlikely that Crist will have the 3 to 1 spending advantage in a senate race that he had in his bid for governor. Congressman Kendrick Meek is an exceedingly weak general election candidate. Republicans in Washington are chortling about the opposition research that ties Meek and his mother, a former congresswoman, to corruption. Yet Meek maintains a strong base in the primary and could emerge handing an easier than expected victory to Crist. It is unlikely that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will let that happen and a top goal is the recruitment of a candidate in the moderate Lawton Chiles, Rueben, Askew, Bill Nelson mold. Particularly intriguing is the idea of a non-Cuban Hispanic candidate who could appeal to a growing Hispanic base within the Democratic Party. State Senator Dan Gelber, currently a candidate for the U.S. Senate, will probably switch to the open Attorney General's race if he is not named as U.S. Attorney for South Florida by President Obama. Crist could have walked to re-election as could Attorney General McCollum. Instead they both face difficult races and party leaders are petrified with the thought of losing the Governor's office after 12 years of Republican rule.

Erick Erickson of Redstate.com has called for a boycott of the NRSC after that body endorsed Gov. Charlie Crist for Mel Martinez's seat over Marco Rubio.

Crist's popularity makes him as close to a sure thing as the Republican Party can find for an empty seat in the election - but Rubio is much more appealing to the base. Rubio's youth, Cuban ethnicity and Catholicism are also a breath of fresh air in a party whose national figures (McConnell, Boehner, McCain, Romney et. al.) are short on all three of those characteristics.

Rubio might do better do stay in Florida and run for Governor - a successful term in the Governor's office would make him 2016 Presidential timber. But he hasn't stepped aside, which would lead to a primary race that would be a microcosm of the broader fight between Republican moderates and right-wingers over the direction the Party should go in.

I like Rubio. His ethnic and religious background, as well as his outsider status, are both welcome breaths of fresh air in a party that hasn't really produced any new figures that are taken seriously outside the party's base. He'd also be a very competitive candidate in a battleground state, and if he won he'd be a valuable asset to the Republican candidate in 2016. Despite this, I think he should stand down in favor of Crist - he's as close to a sure thing as can be found for Republicans this election cycle. He'd free up money and other resources to help Republicans on shakier ground, like Mark Kirk in Illinois. And his already-high national profile would only be increased by a successful Senate campaign. Coming form what has been the quintessential battleground state in the last three elections, he would be a highly visible spokesman for the Republican platform in D.C.

The NRSC is not backing down on the endorsement of Crist over Rubio, specifically attacking the "30 senators" stance made famous by Jim DeMint. With Rubio not ceding to the will of the party, things could get ugly in Florida. Who do you think will win? Who should win? And will the donnybrook in the primaries give the Democrats a shot at the seat?

While I'm not a fan of Crist's and I agree with Patrick's assesment of Crist's Senate run, said Senate run, unfortunately, puts us in a bind.  There's no way we can go after Crist without alienating a substantial number of independants.  At the same time Rubio, at least on Paper, appears to be a dream candidate who has the potential to join Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn among our truly fabulous Senators.

Thus, I make the following proposal: Let's clear the field for Crist this cycle and have Rubio keep his powder dry.  Rubio then gets everyone's support to go after Bill Nelson in 2012.

Thoughts/Suggestions?!?

I hope this helps.

Cahnman out.