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1994

Prepare for a Blowout

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Sun, 07/26/2009 - 22:31
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I am a strong proponent of the idea that candidate recruitment is the ultimate futures market of elections. Collectively, the decisions made by candidates on both sides tell a lot about where politicos on the ground see the political environment headed in the next year to 18 months. It was not surprising that in 2006 and especially in 2008, candidate recruitment on our side sucked wind. Only one Senate race -- Louisiana -- was even remotely considered a Republican pickup opportunity in '08.

For 2010, the story is different. We are by and large getting our top-tier recruits in Senate races, and in more and more House races. And the White House is not getting theirs. The bumper crop of good candidates we had in the 2002 and 2004 cycles appears to have returned. 

Though it's early -- I don't think people thought 1994 could be a really big year until at least February of that year -- I do think we have to prepare for the idea that 2010 could be a big, big year that could put us back within striking distance in both the Senate and the House. Normally, I wouldn't want to raise expectations -- but going back to that candidate recruitment futures thing: if you are remotely thinking of running for office in the next few years, 2010 could be your best shot, and here's why:

  • The horrendous 2006 and 2008 cycles have depressed Republican totals in Congress to far below the historical mean. Though the fact that there were two successive 20+ seat losses in the House and 5+ seat losses in the Senate in the House is historically unique,  collectively they equal one 1980 or 1994-style wipeout -- after which Democrats finally began to recover.
  • The unique confluence of youth and African American turnout for Obama padded vote totals for Congressional Democrats by about 4 points -- and in a midterm -- I'm sorry -- those votes won't be there. We saw this pretty clearly in the Georgia Senate runoff. In 2012, however, those voters might be back -- making 2010 an opportune moment for a promising Congressional challenger to gain a foothold.
  • The Democrats are now clearly responsible for everything, and trying to blame Bush and the GOP wears thinner and thinner by the day. Even if the economy recovers somewhat, and with massive job losses still on the horizon, I don't see people feeling that recovery, let's remember that the economy was in a clear recovery by 1994 but that didn't help Clinton and Democrats.

On a micro-tactical level, Obama may be taking great pains to avoid Clinton's fate on health care, as Ezra Klein details in Sunday's Washington Post, but the broader optics are starting to converge for Obama and Clinton: young, energetic change agents who are being proven ineffective, overexposed, and prone to ADD (Clinton held 38 press conferences his first year, drawing this comparison to Obama's first few days in office).

In many ways, the proving ground for this hypothesis won't be Congress, but the states. There we have 50 distinct political cultures than run in parallel to Washington. And, as Michael Barone notes, the mood there seems to point in the direction of belt-tightening and more humble government, not grandiose new infrastructure or health care schemes.

An Open Source Contract

Submitted by Conservative En... on Sat, 10/25/2008 - 09:30
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In 1994, something amazing happened. A collection of Republican candidates and incumbents came together and agreed to a cohesive national plan for Congress which included reform and a heavy focus on limited government. This well crafted plan was known as the Contract with America; it was a contract that these people who signed on would promise to strive for in the coming term to help reform Washington and rope in the government. This contract was violated, in the end, as there still are "GOP Revolutionaries" Congress in office more than 12 years later, earmarks are out of control, and term limits are unheard of. Sam Brownback, Tom Coburn, and Fred Thompson are the only people I can think of off-hand who self-imposed term-limits on themselves and followed through.

What we need is a new contract that members of Congress who don't abide by, aren't worth voting for. A contract that truly includes reform and bold new ideas to reboot the economy would be amazing for Republicans and for the country as new ideas are being discussed. Current Republican leadership are unwilling to consider such a prospect. I say we, the foot soldiers of conservatism, take action on our own and create a new contract for the American public. In fact, I call upon the Next Right, Red State, Race 4 2008, and Save the GOP to be the frontline activists in creating a new, Open Source Contract for America (OSCA).

Why Open Source? The greatness of the open source movement is that it allows everyone's thoughts and ideas to be brought together and reviewed by their peers. The openness allows everyone to be a part of the contract, making everyone a part owner who is responsible for making it work. How do I propose this is done? Consider the following...

First, an open period where suggestions are made for formal planks of the contract. Begin with the original planks of the 1994 Contract with America and or shrink from there. Take all the options and allow voting for the top 20 planks which become part of the OSCA. Require people to log-in with some sort of OSCA account in order to be able to vote on the platform. Then, once the planks are established -- that's when we begin the most interesting part, the legislation.

Each plank must be backed with specific pieces of legislation. It can not be mere rhetoric, or the right will become just as empty as the left's current leader. We need a plan of attack. Take each plank and flesh out with specific ideas -- for example, if we have a plank to prevent wasteful spending, include a year long earmark moratorium as the first piece of proposed legislation. Perhaps a balanced budget amendment as the second. If we have an elected official reform plank, bring back the push for term limits and perhaps an idea I'm borrowing from Sandy Treadwell -- require full disclosure for members of Congress who's family members or former staffers register to become lobbyists at any level of government. On the economy? Work with the Beyond Bailouts program to come up with clever, conservative based approaches to reform our government.

Why don't I do this myself? I have neither the time, nor the web capabilities to create such a new contract. I'm an engineer working full time in Baltimore that's looking to buy a house in the near future with my wife. My free time is limited. But there are others out there with the time, the dedication, and the ideas that could create a brighter future through this type of a venue. I await responses and ideas.

 

Cross posted from Old Line Elephant

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