WoodbridgeVa's blog

Counting Scozzafava votes before they are cast

Everyone assumes Scozzafava's exit from the race guarantees Hoffman's victory.  Why?  If her 20 percent move to Owens instead of Hoffman, the Democrats get a blowout victory.

So what reason would a Scozzafava supporter have to move right instead of left?  Vocal conservatives have gone out of their way to insult moderates, denigrate them as RINOs and do everything possible to make clear they are not wanted or needed in the Republican party.  Putting Scozzaffava's scalp on the wall is being protrayed as a major victory for conservatives over moderates.  Now they are counting on these same moderates to put party loyalty over ideological preferences and swing their 20 percent of the vote to Hoffman instead of Owens. 

If I ived in New York 23, I would be voting for Hoffman regardless of whether Scozzafava stayed in the race or got out; but I would also recognize the legitimate place for moderates in the Republican party.  I would also be spending the next 2 days trying to communicate with Scozzafava moderates rather than attacking them and definately put an end to the victory dances over her electoral corpse.

In Virginia, Bob Mcdonnell has maintained open respectful communicatin between conservatives and moderates.  He is stomping the liberals into the ground.  In New York 23 Conservatives have persued a scorched earth campaign against the moderates.  On Tuesday, we will learn whether or not they have gone too far.

Conservatives may win NY23; but I think the Virginia campaign provides a better roadmap for long term progress.

Can Government really provide opportunity and foster productivity?

I was reading a speech by a Republican leader from the 70s and wondered how this idea would be recived today.  Is there still room in the conservative movement for this type of thinking?  If so, how would we implement these ideas?

"Now, so there will be no misunderstanding, it is not my intention to do away with government. It is, rather, to make it work—work with us, not over us; to stand by our side, not ride on our back. Government can and must provide opportunity, not smother it; foster productivity, not stifle it."

 

Let’s Get Real About Health Care Reform

The more commentary I read on this subject the less credibility I give to the arguments presented on all sides. We need to cut through the myths, euphemisms etc and bring some reality into this discussion. 

1.      All finite goods and services, including health care, are rationed in one way or another; usually through price in markets, sometimes through government bureaucracy. I have a top of the line health care policy that covers almost everything but not all. My policy does not cover “executive” physicals and concierge care. If I could afford it, I would use these services. Statistically, my inability to access some of this cutting edge diagnostic technology will probably mean certain conditions will go undetected and shorten my life by 2 to 5 years. My access to health care is rationed by price and the bureaucrats at the insurance company. This is not wrong or evil. It is simply a fact of life and realistically there is nothing anyone can do to change it. Swapping out a government bureaucrat for an insurance company one is not going to improve the situation. Nor is it all that “unfair”. Yes the wealthy have access to better health care and always will. Implement a public plan and they will use private doctors. Follow the lead of some countries by prohibiting or severely discouraging private care and they will use medical facilities in Switzerland, Costa Rico and India. All that will have been accomplished is to once again squeeze the middle class who could afford private or supplemental insurance but not foreign hospitals. So yes, health reform critics are wrong when they imply that care is not rationed under the current system and advocates are equally wrong when they suggest that single payer plans will equalize everyone’s access. All in all, I like the current system. Contrary to mythology, it may be slightly cracked but it is not truly broken.
 
 
 
2.      Individuals with preexisting conditions are seeking charity not insurance. Insurance by definition involves paying a set amount of money to purchase protection against certain events with the expectation they probably will not occur but could be devastating if they do. A second but related model is to purchase protection for a known eventuality well in advance so the insurance company can invest the premiums and generate the funds to deal with the event when it occurs. The general idea is that most people will pay more in premiums or foregone investment income than they collect in benefits. That is what differentiates insurance from charity. Society may choose to cover the health care cost of individuals with pre-existing conditions but imposing that burden on insurance companies is unfair and unwise. In doing so, government provides an incentive for individuals, particularly the young and healthy, to defer paying for health insurance until they develop an insurable condition. It would be like allowing people to buy auto insurance after they had an accident. I would propose combining personal responsibility with compassion by providing a refundable tax credit (or better yet; an appropriated grant – we already have too many euphemisms in our tax code) to purchase health insurance, prohibiting insurance companies from dropping a person who develops an insurable condition, and establishing a government program to cover the medical costs of those without insurance but making clear the government will in turn put a lien on the individuals’ assets and income for an amount equal to the lesser of the cost of care or the total premiums the individual would have paid if they had obtained insurance in advance. Some people might make it from 18 to Medicare without paying a premium or medical bill. Others could lose their accumulated assets at age 63 and live out their lives in public housing on Social Security and food stamps. Most will buy insurance and avoid the risk.
 
 
 
3.      Paying for health care reform with savings Medicare and Medicaid is a shell game. President Clinton and the Republican Congress tried this in 1997. They reduced reimbursement rates to doctors, hospitals and nursing homes. Coincidentally, the size of the surpluses in subsequent years almost exactly matched the size of these reductions. When nursing homes started closing down, Congress got worried. When hospitals cut back on services, they became concerned. When doctors started turning away new Medicare patients, they returned reimbursement rates to previous levels. It was part of the out of control spending of the Bush administration and about 1.5 to 2 times what they spent on the war. Now President Obama proposes to repeat the same mistake. Government, or anyone else, can only control health care costs through some form of rationing. See point 1.
 
 
 
4.      Paying for health care with HSAs, or other personal savings plans is also a shell game. I am a 52 year old single male with an income of about $80 K. With luck and a few promotions, I’ll retire with an income north of $75 K. Not great but not bad either, about average. After paying taxes and putting 15 percent in a retirement account; there is barely enough left over to live comfortably, let alone put more into an HSA. And that is without the need to support children or put them through college. But even if I could and accumulated say $500 K, how long would it last? I saw the Medicare “this is not a bill” statements for my father’s stroke. They topped $2 million. I haven’t seen the similar statements for my mother’s lymphoma but she tells me she passed my father. And both of them survived, recovered and can look forward to even more expensive illnesses before the final one. The average person simply cannot save enough money to deal with the costs of a major medical condition, which they will have sooner or later unless they get hit by a bus that finishes the job less expensively.
 
 
 
5.      Comparing health care outcomes in the U.S. to other nations is almost always meaningless. Sick people on national health care can wait months for necessary tests and treatments in Canada and Great Britain. Sick people on Medicaid can wait just about the same length of time for similar treatment in the United States. Canada, and most European nations spend less on health care and their populations have longer healthier lives. The United States has an exponentially larger minority population than any of these countries. I have not examined all the data but I am reasonably confident that Americans of European descent have health care outcomes similar to their old world cousins and Americans of African and Hispanic descent have health care outcomes much better than those of Africa or Latin America.
 
 
 
6.      Traditional economic models become confused when applied to health care. Anyone who has had a prostate exam understands why they do not fit the price/demand supply curve very well. Conversely, individuals with cancer are not necessarily seeking the least expensive treatment. If Medicare had not been available, my family would have robbed banks to treat my mother’s lymphoma. Economic theories work a bit better when applied to diagnostic tests, cosmetic medication and some elective or semi-elective (drugs now or surgery later) treatments. But in the end, medicine tends to involve unpleasant tests, drugs with side effects and almost equally unpleasant physical therapy or surgery. It also involves staying alive and healthy. Most people would avoid medicine completely, regardless of cost, if they thought they could get away with it (worked well for me between 20 and 50). But most people are not willing to cut corners on health care they believe will extend the length or quality of their lives.
 
 
 
7.      Access to health care is not a right. Neither is access to food, clothing, shelter or education. I’ve read Ayn Rand and am not impressed. But she is correct about one thing. All truly valid rights are negative, granting permission to act, to refrain from acting and to be left alone to chose whether or not to act. A positive right is an oxymoron since it by necessity requires infringing on someone else’s negative rights to compel them to provide the goods or services necessary to service the positive right. Nevertheless, civilized nations have universally chosen to infringe on the rights of their citizens, particularly the more wealthy, to ensure at least a minimal level of the goods and services considered necessary to modern life are available to the overwhelming majority of their population. Individuals insisting on a perfect Randian “live free or die” existence are welcome to seek their paradise in less civilized areas. Antarctica is still available. Conversely, bleeding hearts should restrain their demands that society has an obligation to provide unlimited services to everyone who wants them. The fact that an individual will go blind from diabetes without medical care may compel enough sympathy to gain treatment; but it should not save their accumulated assets from confiscation to pay the bills if they have refused to obtain insurance when given the opportunity. See point 2.
 
 
 
 
In the end, the health care reform debate comes down to point 7. Health care by its very nature is expensive and there is no believable means for society to support these expenditures for the less wealthy majority of the population without infringing on the rights of the wealthy minority. That is an unfortunate fact of life. It is a fact that government will take assets from the wealthy for the same reason Willy Sutton robbed banks. It is where the money is. It is unfortunate because people have a right to be left alone to enjoy the fruits of their labor and pass them on to their heirs if they so desire. The goal of health care reform should be to strike an acceptable balance. Our nation does not intentionally allow children to grow into illiterate adults; but it also does not send every child through Harvard or Stanford. We are not going to allow people to die in the streets. We also are not going to buy everyone an annual ‘executive” physical. Idealistic egalitarian claptrap notwithstanding, individuals with the money to attend elite universities will probably have more lucrative careers, opportunities for travel and yes richer more fulfilling lives than those who do not. Similarly, individuals who can afford in house doctors, on site personal trainers and weeklong diagnostic stays the Mayo Clinic will live longer healthier lives than those that do not. Even if government follows the old Beatle adage to ‘tax the rich until there are no rich no more” it would only tear down without building up. Governments are formed among men to secure liberties, including property rights, not trample them into the dust. Conservatives should acknowledge there is no libertarian free market solution to this issue. Liberals should recognize the solutions they propose do severe damage to fundamental principals Jefferson propounded as the foundation of our nation. We should all be more willing to discuss realities rather than mythologies.

 

This is why I am supremely confident in the future of our nation (and our party)

 

This young man's story is what this nation is all about.  He recieved 6 separate standing ovations during his speech.  Hearing this Palastinian immagrent describe his journey to citizenship and watching the reaction of the crowd was far and away the most rewarding experiance from Virginia's Republican State convention.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4_0L2ZJA

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zejvNWt65VIvQ

Is the Republican Party Cannibalizing Itself?

Is Charlie Cook's analysis correct?  If yes, how do we change course?  If no, how do we change public perceptions? 

Frankly, I think he may be correct.  I've been a center right pragmatist since high school and affilitated with Republicans because the liberal Democrat policies of the 60s and 70s tended to be anti-American, authoritarian (except with regard to sex and drugs) and based largely on class warfare.  I have always listened respectfully to even the most extreme ideas and still feel that all of the various hyphonated conservative factions should have a voice in selecting our nominees and drafting policy positions. 

Nevertheless; it seems that, starting with the 1992 National convention, the party has become increasingly identified as largely a collection of conspiracy theorists, xenaphobes, blue nosed church ladies and tax cranks.   If we do not break this perception quickly , we will see most of our non-activist voter base move over to the Democrats. Next we will see about 1/3 to 1/2 of our activists drift away, starting with college educated middle class voters who are more interested in pragmatic solutions than conspiracy theories from the tin foil hat crowd, arcane explanations of Objectivist economic theory or moral lectures about what consenting adults do in the privacy of their own homes. Finally, the Republican party will be left with a core membership, representing about 1/5 the voter base we held in 2004, that will be self congradulatory regarding its ideological purity and bitterly resentful regarding its complete lack of relevence.

 

From the look of things, the Republican Party is in danger of cannibalizing itself.

 

A fellow who oversees lobbying in all 50 states for a major corporation recently told me about a certain Republican U.S. senator up for re-election in 2010, someone generally regarded as fairly conservative who might face a serious challenge from a very conservative fellow Republican. The incumbent has not been tainted by scandal, has never embarrassed himself by making a major mistake, is highly regarded in Washington, and is considered a very effective senator.

I was dumbfounded. Although it isn't hard to see why a moderate Republican such as Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter could face a conservative primary challenge, it is difficult to understand why a conservative Republican would be challenged from the right. This is a party in danger of cannibalizing itself.

The party's contraction and rightward movement have become self-perpetuating.

One can look at the American electorate like a football field. Most voters are fairly centrist, sitting between the 35-yard lines. Democrats are on the left end of the field; Republicans on the right. The theoretical center for each party is roughly the 25-yard line on its side.

The Republican Party dropped from parity in terms of party identification four years ago and now is about 8 percentage points below the Democratic Party. The GOP has narrowed its base and moved to the right. The defections from the GOP have been among its least conservative members. Thus, the center of the Republican Party has moved to the right, between the 15- and 20-yard lines.

This shift means that GOP primaries have become more conservative, putting pressure on incumbents to chart a more rightward course than they would otherwise take. And it means that GOP primaries, particularly in open-seat races, will be even more likely than in the past to nominate ideologues. The party's contraction and rightward movement have become self-perpetuating, and will continue to be until something breaks the cycle.

At a time when Republicans should be starting to think about how they can expand their party to reclaim those who abandoned it, the party is instead lurching ever more to the right, exacerbating its problems. Many people who watched the recent debate between contenders for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee came away thinking that the only memorable moments were when each candidate expressed love and devotion for Ronald Reagan and when all but one bragged about how many guns they own. Not to belittle the importance of Reagan's iconic status or the Second Amendment, but when the only takeaways are about the importance of a political figure who last won an election a quarter-century ago and how big a person's arsenal is, these guys are not hot prospects to chair the GOP's Welcome Wagon, much less to lead the party out of its wilderness.

For anyone who thinks that it is important to our democracy to have two strong, vibrant parties and that having both major parties healthy keeps the system accountable, seeing one of those parties being self-destructive is not encouraging.

Beyond the fact that an inwardly focused Republican Party will have a hard time restoring its lost support, it's hard to embody Reagan's "Big Tent" approach when you are pushing folks who don't totally agree with you out of the tent. Especially for Republicans on Capitol Hill, the narrowing of the GOP presents a challenge as lawmakers try to develop policies to help pull the country out of its horrible economic decline.

With the Federal Reserve Board having dropped interest rates to practically zero, only two other major instruments to fight recession remain: government spending and tax cuts. Democrats tend to think that spending is the way to go and typically aren't wild about most tax cuts. Conversely, Republicans believe that tax cuts are the preferable route and disdain new spending. President-elect Obama is putting together a package that incorporates both, hoping to build bipartisan support and professing his fear that doing too little is more dangerous than doing too much. The fact that neither congressional Democrats nor congressional Republicans are in love with his package suggests that Obama may have found a good balance.

But if Republican lawmakers have to look over their shoulders and worry that backing a balanced stimulus plan would trigger serious primary challenges, they could be intimidated into jeopardizing measures needed to get the country out of the recession, into further isolating their party by making it more extremist, or both.

 

Tom Davis has a column we should all read.

Former Congressman Tom Davis has written an article for the Ripon Forum which every Republican should read. ( http://www.riponsociety.org/forum109a.htm )  I agree 100 percent with his analysis but would add a major caveat.  He is correct that we must face some realities, make some determinations regarding which hills are worth dying on and focus our efforts and our messages where they will be most effective.  Constantly engaging in the political equivalent of Pickett’s charge may appeal to our sense of gallantry, but we need to remember who won that battle and the war.  Nevertheless, the most critical challenge facing the party today is not our external outreach to voters outside the party.  It is our own internal civil war.  We are so badly divided right now that unless we start to heal our internal wounds, in 5 – 10 years the Republican Party could go the way of the Whigs and cease to exist as a meaningful voice in American politics.

 

Republicans HAVE been a big tent party that embraces every variety of hyphenated conservative and most center right moderates.  But we have done a very poor job of fostering communication between the various groups.  Consequently, entirely too many people from all factions consistently refuse to accept 60 or even 80 percent agreement on issues and hold out for 100 percent consistency with THEIR ideology or they take a walk during the general election.  I can recall when Michael Ferris was nominated for Lt. Governor.  He was moderate to main stream conservative on about 60 percent of issues that mattered; but, because he championed a hard right position on some (not all) social issues, moderates in NOVA took a walk in the general.  I even saw local party officials handing out bumper stickers that read “Allan/Byer/Gilmore”.  And of course this was followed the next year by the North/Coleman/Robb/Wilder debacle.  Personally, I trace many of the splits in our state party to that election. Each faction within the party MUST recognize that loyalty is a two way street.  If party leaders want to sit out an election, so be it; but it is unacceptable for those selected for leadership positions, including elected officials, to oppose the party’s nominee in the general election.

 

Conversely, we must also recognize the Republican Party rules in many areas have tended to favor small groups of extreme activists and limited the ability of moderates to have a meaningful voice in writing party platforms or nominating candidates.  Over the past decade we have started entirely too many congressional, state and national election efforts with platforms that could command 80 percent agreement from undecided voters and then proceeded to campaign hard on the other 20 percent.  Strong voices of moderation in our nomination and platform development processes would allow us to more clearly recognize and focus on general election messages that both reflect our values and appeal to the broadest number of persuadable voters.

 

Most importantly we need to recognize the issues which bind us are (or should be) more important than those which divide us and develop meaningful, respectful communication between the various factions.  Christine Todd Whitman wrote a book “It’s My Party Too” which inadvertently cuts to the core of the problem.  In Chapter 3, “A Party Within the Party” she describes the conflicts with social conservatives in New Jersey over abortion issues and the lack of understanding from people she almost never met with, clearly did not understand and did not particularly like.  She notes with some distain that when, after months and years of conflict, she finally described her position to Pat Robertson, he endorsed it in a matter of seconds.  In the next chapter, “Reclaiming Lincoln’s Legacy”, she describes a more amicable resolution to a racial profiling dispute that was based on her 20 plus years of outreach to black and Hispanic community leaders which allowed her to see the situation from their point of view and craft a response that satisfied their base as well as her own. 

 

Which left me wondering if she had spent half as much time building a relationship with activists within her own party as she did reaching out to those in the Democrat party, would she have been able to resolve the first dispute as easily as she did the second?  If George Allen had spent as much of his Senate term in town hall meetings with moderate NOVA Republicans as he did with downstate conservative Democrats, would he still be a Senator?  If hard right conservatives dealt with moderate party members respectfully instead of castigating them as RINO’s and making them feel unwelcome, would we retain more center right voters?  If moderates actually took the time to learn and understand the nuances of many social conservative issues, would they recognize the potential for 60 to 80 percent agreement and gain more influence in the nominating and platform development process?  Clearly, the answer to all these questions is “Yes”.

 

We are never going to win elections by trying to run to the left of the Democrats.  But if we also will not win elections by focusing on the relatively small number of issue positions that divide our party and marginalize us among the overall electorate.  Anyone who makes a serious effort to understand the viewpoints of the various hyphenated conservative and center right factions within our party quickly recognizes there is 60 to 80 percent agreement across all groups.  The stridency of our rhetoric and inability or unwillingness to listen to each other may divide us but our issue positions actually unite us.  If we reach out to one another and focus on areas of agreement, we can bring this party back within less than a decade.  But if we continue down our current path, we will drive a series of wedges between the various factions, marginalize ourselves and become nothing more than a historical anachronism.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What is, or should be, the proper role of the RNC?

Promoted. I don't think we disagree here. The RNC's job is to win elections... be they in 2010, 2012, 2016 and beyond. That will require long-term party building. The difference is between people who think the RNC is an electoral / party-building institution vs. those who think it should be a policy institution. -Patrick

Patrick Ruffini, whom I generally respect, made a statement in his post regarding questions for candidates for RNC Chairman that cries out for full discussion.  According to Patrick:

The RNC's job is to win elections -- period.

That viewpoint is at the heart of our current problems.  There are three national Republican Committees (RNC, NRCC and RSC) precisely to allow the NRCC and the RSC to focus on winning elections while the RNC takes the more long term view of how to build and maintain the party on the national level and assist the state and county parties to do the same within their jurisdictions.  Unfortunately, every time we have a Republcian in the White House, they quickly install an RNC chairman who morphs the organization into the reelection arm of the administration during the first term and a backwater during the second. 

One of the very few silver linings in November's results is that we now have the opportunity to return the RNC to its proper role as the national committee with the broadest range of interests and the only one that can afford to look beyond the next election.

I would suggest looking to Bill Brock as the standard for what an RNC chairman should be.  He came in after the very acrimoneous 1976 elections, helped to heal a badly divided party, focused the RNC staff on maximizing new technology, stregnthend the auxillary organizations (particularly the College Republicans),  and did more to assist state and local party organizations than any RNC chairman before or since.

Yes, he paid close attention to winning elections; but he paid closer attention to building bridges between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan Republicans.  He insisted that every group or organization willing to support Republican Candidates in the general election should have a voice during primaries and caucuses.  All should be heard, none should have a veto and intraparty divisions should be resolved amicably and quickly to ensure party unity in November.

People tend to forget the Rebulican party almost came to an end after 1976.  We had just come through Watergate, a divisive contested Presidnential nomination and a general election where many people believed Reagan declined to support Ford in order to bolster his own chances for 1980.  The level of disgust, disapointment and despair among party supporters exceeded even what we see today.  As a Pennsylvania College Rpeublican leader, I witnessed more than one outright fist fight between Ford and Reagan supporters.  Many of our CR members seriously questioned whether they would be more comfortable supporting conservative Democrats than staying with the Republicans.  More than a few of them left the Republican party and never came back.

Bill Brock became RNC chairman in the midst of all this and worked a quiet miracle of party reunification.  History may have given Reagan credit for restoring the Republicans to the White House with his Reagan Democrats; but the only reasont there was a Republican party left to restore was because Bill Brock took a long term view of party building and did the hard work to make it happen.  We need an RNC chairman today who will do the same.

Defining Differences—

As we move forward in developing policy proposals to assist a Conservative/Republican revival, we need to be clear about the types of differences we have with the opposition.  It may seem a little abstract; but I believe a better understanding of these concepts will help us craft better policies and better messages.

 

1.      Differing parties generally share common goals for the nation and agree on general principles and policies to achieve those goals but each believes the other is incapable of implementing policies effectively (ie. The opposition is incompetent but not misguided or evil).

 

Right now, this is where we are the weakest.  We have some strong governors but Bush, Brownie, Delay, Foley, Hastert, and on and on and on …. have left even most Conservative Republicans wondering if our party is capable of simple competence.  I have lost count of the number of voters I spoke with in the Fall who agreed with us 100 percent on national goals, principles and policies but voted straight ticket Democrat because they just felt we couldn’t get the job done and they could.

 

2.      Differing parties share common goals for the nation but differ regarding what principles and policies are best suited to achieve those goals. (ie. The opposition is misguided but not evil and will accept our ideas once we show they will work.)

 

This was/is Obama’s core message – That almost all Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, red states and blue states have the same basic goals for the nation and that we will all unite once we realize his policies will deliver these goals.  We need to give this one some serious thought.  I believe he may be right about most people in our nation sharing common goals and wrong about the policies to achieve those goals.  The critical issue for us arises if his policies actually work.  I doubt the problem will arise. However, I want to see a strong prosperous nation with a government firmly committed to securing the fundamental rights outlined in the Declaration of Independence and am agnostic about the methods of achieving that goal.  But many in our movement seem to believe the methods are as sacrosanct as the rights.  So, if we wake up in two years in a strong prosperous nation with a government firmly committed to securing the fundamental rights outlined in the Declaration of Independence  do we continue to oppose the Democrats or shift our thinking to reflect a new reality? 

 

3.      Differing parties have divergent goals for the nation but respect the good intentions of the opposing party. (ie. The opposition is misguided and will probably never accept our ideas but not evil)

 

This is where we get respectful differences between Social Conservatives and Social Libertarians (Obama vs Rick Warren).  I believe the electorate will tolerate, even welcome, some level of debate over fundamental societal goals as long as all parties are willing to accept the verdict of the majority and either embrace the final public policy or at least tolerate it with a certain level of good grace.

 

4.      Differing parties have divergent goals for the nation and each believes the other is motivated by self interest rather than altruism. (ie. The opposition is evil)

 

The extremists on either end of the spectrum can push this message as hard as they want.  It will only drive voters to the other side.

 

Defining Differences—

As we move forward in developing policy proposals to assist a Conservative/Republican revival, we need to be clear about the types of differences we have with the opposition.  It may seem a little abstract; but I believe a better understanding of these concepts will help us craft better policies and better messages.

 

1.      Differing parties generally share common goals for the nation and agree on general principles and policies to achieve those goals but each believes the other is incapable of implementing policies effectively (ie. The opposition is incompetent but not misguided or evil).

 

Right now, this is where we are the weakest.  We have some strong governors but Bush, Brownie, Delay, Foley, Hastert, and on and on and on …. have left even most Conservative Republicans wondering if our party is capable of simple competence.  I have lost count of the number of voters I spoke with in the Fall who agreed with us 100 percent on national goals, principles and policies but voted straight ticket Democrat because they just felt we couldn’t get the job done and they could.

 

2.      Differing parties share common goals for the nation but differ regarding what principles and policies are best suited to achieve those goals. (ie. The opposition is misguided but not evil and will accept our ideas once we show they will work.)

 

This was/is Obama’s core message – That almost all Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, red states and blue states have the same basic goals for the nation and that we will all unite once we realize his policies will deliver these goals.  We need to give this one some serious thought.  I believe he may be right about most people in our nation sharing common goals and wrong about the policies to achieve those goals.  The critical issue for us arises if his policies actually work.  I doubt the problem will arise. However, I want to see a strong prosperous nation with a government firmly committed to securing the fundamental rights outlined in the Declaration of Independence and am agnostic about the methods of achieving that goal.  But many in our movement seem to believe the methods are as sacrosanct as the rights.  So, if we wake up in two years in a strong prosperous nation with a government firmly committed to securing the fundamental rights outlined in the Declaration of Independence  do we continue to oppose the Democrats or shift our thinking to reflect a new reality? 

 

3.      Differing parties have divergent goals for the nation but respect the good intentions of the opposing party. (ie. The opposition is misguided and will probably never accept our ideas but not evil)

 

This is where we get respectful differences between Social Conservatives and Social Libertarians (Obama vs Rick Warren).  I believe the electorate will tolerate, even welcome, some level of debate over fundamental societal goals as long as all parties are willing to accept the verdict of the majority and either embrace the final public policy or at least tolerate it with a certain level of good grace.

 

4.      Differing parties have divergent goals for the nation and each believes the other is motivated by self interest rather than altruism. (ie. The opposition is evil)

 

The extremists on either end of the spectrum can push this message as hard as they want.  It will only drive voters to the other side.

 

Keep a close eye on Fairfax County

Republican Pat Herrity and Democrat Sharon Bulova are running in a special election to replace the Chairman of the Board of County Supervisors (Gerry Connolly, a Democrat who was elected to replace Tom Davis).  Fairfax county is often cited as proof the Republican wave crested in 2002 and has been in steady retreat ever since; but those of us who live in Northern Virginia realize the facts on the ground are more nuanced.  Many of the losses in NOVA over the past few cycles resulted as much from unbelievably bad campaigns as from a failure of conservative messaging. 

The county, with a population of 1,000,000 is as close to a microcosum of America as you will find at the local level.  It tends to lean somewhat right on fiscal issues, left on some social issues and has a fairly strong libertarian streak.  Social Conservatives can and have won here but they need to work hard to do so and focus more on parental control of what gets taught to children and less on intruding on the privacy of consenting adults.  Notably; Ken Cuccinelli (possibly the most conservative Republican in the state) was reelected in 2007 while Jean Marie Devolites Davis (who went up on radio to announce she was a RINO) was defeated.  Ken worked his district door to door and emphasized his fiscal as well as social conservatism.  Jean Marie preferred to distance herself from all things Republican and did everything short of changing party to drive home the point.

Pat Herrity is no RINO but he is also not a doctrainaire social conservative.  From what I have seen he will emphasize fiscal restraint and good management to focus the county budget on essential services and deliver them cost effectively.  I suspect (although I do not know) that he will also embrace a kind of libertarian social conservatism that respects traditional family values and strong parental control of influences on their children while acknowledging the rights of consenting adults to embrace alternative lifestyles and respecting their privacy.

Sharon Bulova appears to be your standard issue doctainaire liberal Democrat.  She supported expanding benifits for illegal immigrants, favors tax increases before spending cuts and has shown no opposition to PC based academics regardless of parental concerns about the messages being delivered to their children.

I believe that Herrity can not only win this blue trending county, he can do so in a way that heals some of the divisions between fiscal and social conservatives as well as delivers a Republican message the resonates with moderates.  Extreme messages of any type would be suicidal in this county.  No tax pledges, strong anti abortion or anti gay statements, government bashing etc will all backfire badly in Fairfax.  Nevertheless, Republicans can make a case for fiscal sanity that includes spending cuts before tax increases, an emphasis on private sector development with government intervention held to a minimum, and clearly articulate that traditional families and alternative lifesyles can coexixt if each will respect the others privacy and right to raise their children as they see fit.  These messages will resonate in Fairfax county.  If we can couple them with effective new media delivery mechanisms, this supervisors race could be the start of our climb back up.

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