Eric Earling's blog

Hypothetical:  let's say you're a Democrat making a repeat run for Congress in an affluent, metropolitican suburb.  You're grabbing attention for your national ties to the netroots, which is raising questions in national publications about just how in tune with your potential constituents you are.

Would it be wise to stretch the truth by claiming your degree from Harvard is in economics rather than computer science?

Probably not.  The basic details:

The rematch of the 2004 gubernatorial contest that proved to be the closest such election in American history is shaping up to be just as competitive as mail-in ballots start arriving in most voters’ mailboxes later this week.

Public polling shows the race all knotted up, with the incumbent Christine Gregoire still below the important 50% threshold (note: there are no 3rd party candidates on the General Election ballot as there was in 2004). And pay attention to this from the write-up of the latest SurveyUSA poll:

Most striking: SurveyUSA is polling in 28 states. In state after state, as Democrat Barack Obama has run up the score at the top of the ticket, down-ticket Democrats have benefited. In other states, a rising Democratic tide is floating the boats of Democratic candidates for Senator, Governor, and Attorney General. Not in Washington State. Dino Rossi, rare among Republicans running for statewide office in 2008, is not being dragged down by John McCain. Christine Gregoire is not being pumped up by Barack Obama.

All signs currently point to a gubernatorial race in Washington state that is eerily close to the 2004 results, which produced the closest such contest in US history.

 - The latest public poll?  A 48-48 tie from Rasmussen.

 - The RCP average for the race?  Another 48-48 tie.

 - Pollster.com's trend line?  A margin of 0.9% for Rossi.

It's an amazing electoral brawl.  One difference, however, is the state of the race at this juncture in the election cycle.

In 2004 Dino Rossi was a little known state Senator who ran an excellent campaign, running down the favored Christine Gregoire (then the sitting state AG) toward the end of the race.  Public polling in 2004 showed Gregoire with a clear lead in early October rather than the current dog fight.

Such standing is not inconsequential given that the lion's share of state voters will begin receiving their ballots by the end of next week in what will largely be a mail-in election.  Within that construct, it should be noted that political observers have identified that later mail-in ballots in Washington state have recently favored Republicans as the counting moves from early to late mail-in ballots (more background the true political junkies here).  In short, Republicans and Rossi have a history of closing races well in the Evergreen State.

All to say that despite the terrible headwinds blowing against Republican candidates this year, Dino Rossi is in a better position to win in a blue state in 2008 than he was in the amazingly close race of 2004.

A round-up of recent events in the Evergreen State gubernatorial contest:

1)  Christine Gregoire's controversial stem cell ads have been chased from the TV airwaves, with the Tacoma News Tribune following the Seattle Times in castigating them.  An effective counter from Dino Rossi probably didn't hurt either.

2)  A late-in-the-game state Democratic party lawsuit to force ballots to declare Rossi a "Republican" rather than the "Prefers GOP Party" label currently used was promptly tossed out.  Background:  in Washington's somewhat unique "Top Two" primary system, candidate's declare their party preference in language of thier choosing; Gregoire appears on the ballot as "Prefers Democratic Party."

Perhaps it should come as little surprise that a candidate who is a darling of the netroots is running a campaign that puts little emphasis on the economic issues that are dominating the headlines and top the concerns of voters this year. Yet, that's exactly what Democrat Darcy Burner is doing in her re-match against Republican Congressman Dave Recihert, in a race that regularly lands on assorted "House Races to Watch" lists (latest example from the Fix).

Behold, Burner's latest ad:

This amounts to getting into a resume contest with Reichert, he of King County Sheriff and Green River Killer fame (official bio here). Sure, the Reichert campaign can easily compile a list of accomplishments to counter the ad itself, but resume wars were a loser for Burner in 2006. Recall the ad that sent the left into a tizzy for its supposed sexism: 

Dino Rossi embarked last fall on a rematch of the now famous 2004 Washington Governor's race by focusing on a number of issues at the fore of local voters' minds in recent years, including education and transportation.  The events of 2008, however, have opened new and fertile territory for Rossi.

A huge spike in state spending under now incumbent Christine Gregoire coupled with declining tax revenues (another victim of the housing market's downward slide), has left the state with an estimated $2.7 billion budget deficit looming.

Gregoire's response?  Ignore it, repeatedly.  That includes apperances on the campaign trail and in responding to a question on the deficit posed via YouTube's YouChoose08.

Rossi's response is summed up in his latest ad:

For the first time in this campaign, Washington gubernatorial candidates Dino Rossi and Christine Gregoire are squared off in directly competing TV ads, marking a new phase in the contest...even though neither campaign is doing much to talk about the spots besides popping them up on YouTube.

The first TV ads from the major candidates in the Washington state Governor's race are out, showcasing a compelling anti-Establishment twist from challenger Dino Rossi:

There is much to like about the ad, including the anti-status quo messaging in Washington state, where Democrats have held the Governor's office since 1985 and have been edging toward Massachusetts-like majorities in the Legislature over the least several election cycles.  Rossi, just as he did in 2004, is emphasizing his own personable nature, running as an affable, forward-thinking candidate.  That's usually good strategy in any case, but exceptionally useful running as a Republican in a blue state in 2008.

Dino Rossi's campaign for Washington Governor announced yesterday that he has already raised more money in 2008 than that which he compiled in his entire 2004 campaign (he's over $6,250,000 already this year).