Ben DeGrow's blog

Informal Colorado Political Survey Shows Josh Penry Gaining Momentum in Guv's Race

Introducing the top-line results from the 2nd edition of the survey of Colorado's political temperature. Exactly 500 people participated in the project. It's not exactly scientific, but El Presidente and I created it to be more in-depth and meaningful than your run-of-the-mill straw poll.

Bottom line? It's becoming more apparent that Josh Penry is beginning to establish himself as the Republican frontrunner in the governor's race, while the U.S. Senate primary seems to be turning into a tough, 3-way race on the GOP side. Coming later in the week will be an analysis of some key crosstabs and correlations. But for now here's a quick rundown of the survey's top-line results:

  • The biggest winner, making significant gains in both support and perceived strength since our July survey, is gubernatorial candidate Josh Penry
  • The larger shifting field of the U.S. Senate race gives a less clear picture, with Ryan Frazier edging out Ken Buck for most support, and Jane Norton beating Frazier by a similarly narrow margin for perceived strength
  • The heavily Right-leaning crowd definitely shows more respect for Andrew Romanoff as a Democratic rival in the race than for appointed incumbent Michael Bennet
  • Among the other races, treasurer candidate J.J. Ament made the biggest gains, while Scott Gessler (Secretary of State) and Cory Gardner (4th Congressional) widened their respective leads
  • Demographically speaking, the group of participants in this poll was slightly more Republican, older, female, married, educated and non-white than the July sample
  • Overall, those surveyed are more confident that Democrat policies in Washington will harm elected Democrats' chances in the 2010 election, and believe that Bennet, Bill Ritter, and Betsy Markey are more vulnerable than two months ago

For more details, read the release below:

September 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

If you see any important detail from the survey missing from the above release, please feel free to comment below or contact me directly so I can help answer your question.

New Video Exposing Obama-Style Health Reform Sets Standard for the Debate

This new health reform video produced by Colorado's Independence Institute (disclosure: my employer) is a great example of combining original research with short, viewer-friendly animation to convey a clear message about the dangers of greater government intervention in our health care.

It tells the story of Oregon's experience with Medicaid rationing, specifically how organized special interest groups were able to use their lobbying power to give higher priority to providing coverage for more politically correct treatments (eg, substance-abuse, birth control, weight loss) while treatments for others got lower priority or no coverage at all.

This video is a sequel to a similar animated piece on Obama Care that highlighted the dangers of health insurance mandates, using the Massachusetts story and a bus hitting

We need to keep framing the story with honest arguments based in real-world policy examples that are easily accessible to everyday voters. Yes, I'm biased, but this is excellent work from a state-level think tank -- I'd like to see more emulating this strategy.

U.S. Senate Candidate Caught Posting Bizarre Online Comments Under False Identity

Here's a good bit of important advice to candidates for major political office that apparently isn't self-evident to all -- Don't go posting comments online under a false identity:

Cleve Tidwell was posing as someone named "Craig Platon" and posting about how "he gave me and everyone else that waited in line all the time we needed and seemed only interested in what I had to say." He also describes himself as a "warm individual." This is a little narcissistic even for a would-be politician.

It is troubling to say the least that a candidate for United States Senate has no apparent ethical qualms with posting as imaginary people supporting himself. Simply posting under a psuedonym [sic] and dropping a comment saying something positive about himself would be bad enough, but posting this elaborate backstory is downright bizarre. [link added]

Unless someone has hijacked Mr. Tidwell's "private email address" -- talk about a bizarre conspiracy theory -- the conclusion made by Rocky Mountain Right that the comments of "Craig Platon" were actually posted by U.S. Senate candidate Cleve Tidwell himself is impossible to deny.

Sad. Strange. Bad judgment. Choose your terminology.

It gets worse (and closer to home) when someone using the identical IP address as "Craig Platon" under the name "Kattie Botts" left this comment on my site a couple months ago in response to the observation that Ryan Frazier, another GOP candidate, dominated a local U.S. Senate straw poll:

Really a humorous poll since he was the only candidate allowed to speak at that meeting I wa told. Seems Your paper has a lot to learn about us real Republicans and maybe even Douglas County,

Not to mention I don’t really think his same sex marriage approval and adding millions to our taxes with the pushing the same sex benefits in the government will set to good with republicans. He is way to liberal to be running for senate, maybe governor of our liberal state but no way for senate.

Best we wait and see who really has the support and the interest of the party at heart.

Obviously someone in Douglas has a wish list and supporting someone. Amazing what papers write to try and sway voters, We are smarter than that.

Besides the falsehood posed that Ryan Frazier supports same sex marriage (he does not), let me simply add: Yes, Mr. Tidwell, we are smarter than that. Just say it ain't so.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus

"Principled", "Solutions-Driven" US Senate Candidate Ryan Frazier Speaks Out

(Co-authored by El Presidente and Ben DeGrow)

We were privileged with the opportunity last Saturday to sit down and conduct an exclusive half-hour two-on-one interview with Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ryan Frazier (Frazier's two GOP primary contenders are Weld County district attorney Ken Buck and businessman Cleve Tidwell). The conversation was wide-ranging and informative. We left with a clearer picture of the candidate's vision and the campaign's direction.

We began by bringing up a recent article in The Hill that portrayed Frazier as part of a "band of centrists", and asked him what he thought of the characterization. He responded: "I'm Ryan Frazier, and I do what I believe to be right. I've never been much for labels.... I'll leave the labeling to the press." Though he did choose the word "principled" to describe his philosophy, he was fairly adamant about not being categorized into a box.

Nor did Frazier express any dismay that Beltway Republican Party bigwigs have taken a wait-and-see approach to his candidacy (all the better in light of NRSC's recent Florida endorsement): "I'm not really concerned about folks in Washington DC. I never expected to be their number one choice. As a matter of fact, I think that's why our candidacy can be so significant. Because we're not the establishment. We are a grassroots campaign.... I'm not as concerned about whether they think I'm a top choice."

Frazier added that his coalition building is anything but traditional for a Republican candidate in Colorado, as he stressed the bottom-line focus of his early campaign strategy: "It's building the base, period. That's my goal. And I'm not talking about just purely a Republican base. I have to build a Colorado base of support that spans Republicans, unaffiliateds, and Democrats....I'm going to take a very non-traditional route toward building the base." That route will be premised on “ideas and specific solutions” that rise above party affiliation.

Frazier also elaborated on the nature true grassroots movements in leading the resurgence of fiscally responsible, limited government, and individual freedom-inspired candidates nationwide. “What they represent is a movement, something that the center-right has not seen in some time,” Frazier explained. He continued, “This movement is critical to my campaign . . . but also critical to restoring Republican fiscal responsibility, and move this country in a better direction.”

Now, certainly, Frazier would prefer to be the candidate representing the Republican Party in challenging Michael Bennet in 2010. But in any case, he laid out a pretty clear, 3-point roadmap of the incumbent appointee's clearest weaknesses:

  1. Education: In particular, Michael Bennet's abandonment of disadvantaged kids by throwing the D.C. voucher program under the bus (more recently, Bennet told Denver Post columnist Vincent Carroll that the program is a "here today, gone tomorrow" argument).
  2. EFCA, also known as the union card-check bill. Of course, Bennet's indecisiveness on this issue has approached legendary status. Frazier noted that no matter what happens going forward, Bennet has already identified himself by his long delay in making a decision on this "extremely poor policy".
  3. "He's been going around the state touting Obama's budget as if somehow it's the best thing since peanut butter & jelly sandwiches." Frazier added that this clearly aligns the Democrat incumbent with "fiscal irresponsibility" and mounting deficits and debt.

Frazier touched on other specific issues: "I believe that in a Republican primary the issue of immigration will play a role.... That said, ultimately only practical solutions to the issue of immigration I think will win the day." Among the ideas he touted were scrapping the 3-year and 10-year rules for re-entry to create an incentive for voluntary self-deportation, and establishing a non-immigrant visa for service workers. He recognized that the issue is a strong suit for primary opponent Ken Buck, but is counting on a move toward smart solutions over heated rhetoric to hold his own.

As to the big deal that has been made out of his apparently unorthodox views on social issues, Frazier had a couple important things to say. First, he denied rumors that his views were anything but "pro-life". While we didn't have time to dig deeper into more specific issues in the abortion debate, he did state: "When it comes to the issue of life, I'm very supportive of strict constructionist judges....You can argue about Roe v Wade and the outcome. But if you look at it just on the basis of the law, the fact is the Constitution is silent on the matter, and as such the Tenth Amendment should apply."

Second, he stood firm on his position in defense of granting employee benefits to same-sex couples. "It doesn't mean I'm abandoning my principles." As he also stands against the idea of gay marriage, we don't see this position as being any sort of deal-breaker with the vast majority of conservatives in Colorado.

When asked about the importance of getting his early strong endorsement from the Associated Builders and Contractors of Western Colorado -- very early, and the first for anyone in the race -- Frazier said: "Their support early on is instrumental to 1) continue to build support and 2) to raise the money it's going to take to be competitive to win." Frazier earned the endorsement not just for the contested Republican primary, but for US Senate, period. The association of businessmen and women on the western side of Colorado believe Frazier is a pro-business, free market candidate that will "aid in returning our economy to an emergent, healthy and vibrant environment," and will not simply be "a no vote."

Frazier did observe from his early fundraising calls, however, that the state of the economy has affected the amounts certain donors traditionally have been able to give. The race may require 20 million dollars to win, but a less than optimal fiscal climate might skew those numbers. On the other hand, Frazier noted, the numbers could rise if the race is perceived as strongly competitive (a necessary retention for Democrats, a viable pickup for Republicans) and is pushed into the top 2 or 3 Senate races nationwide in terms of visibility and swing potential as the “eyes of the nation are focused on Colorado.”

As far as the economy's possible effect on the broader success of his campaign themes and electoral chances, Frazier adroitly noted: "Certainly there are going to be those if the economy gets better they're going to say the Democrats are in charge when it got better. But I would always remind people that when the Democrats were in control it got worse, as well. It's not a matter of the Democrats, it's a matter of confidence by the American people that the economy can and will get better tomorrow than it is today."

“I believe it will come down to this in 2010—who has the best ideas and who can connect with the people—these will ultimately be the deciding factors,” concluded Frazier.

Frazier closed out our talk with an emphasis on the fact that he is "solutions-driven", clearly a theme that appeared throughout his answers. To address what keeps him going on the rigorous campaign schedule that hampers his business and family commitments, he eloquently summed up the case for his candidacy: "I do want to see a better Colorado and a better America where our taxes are low, where our rights are protected, our Constitution is upheld, and our country is defended. Those are the things that motivate me."

Undoubtedly, the young Aurora city councilman, entrepreneur, and father of three has a lot of work cut out for him, but as he begins to make a national impression, Ryan Frazier is on track to make a strong showing.

Thanks to Ryan for making time, and thanks to those who helped set up the meeting.

Stay Tuned for One-of-a-Kind Grassroots New Media Coverage of Democratic National Convention

Promoted and bumped. Excellent grassroots journalism effort around the DNC. -Patrick

If you're interested in grassroots, cutting-edge, new media-style coverage of the Democratic National Convention by savvy local Denver bloggers, you'll want to bookmark the Peoples Press Collective to stay connected to the action. As the Independence Institute's Jon Caldara describes the project:

They are a team of Colorado bloggers who will be armed to the teeth with point and shoot cameras, video cameras, and live streaming cell phones to document all the shenanigans, beat downs, hippie love-fests, and wacky protests going down in the streets. Basically anything the mainstream media won’t be around for, they will. Some pretty big time Colorado bloggers like the Rocky Mountain Right, Rossputin, Slapstick Politics, and Drunkablog have already signed on. They’ve got some cool features on their site like a quick 1 minute DNC preview video, a DNC blog post aggregator, and even a comprehensive schedule of DNC events.

Keen political observers should be interested in following the impact of this coverage on the course of the campaign. How will the DNC and its public perception affect Barack Obama's performance, especially here in the swing state of Colorado? And what about the number one Senate race nationwide between Boulder liberal Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer? Stay tuned....

CO-Sen Update: A Bad Week for Mark Udall

In Colorado's closely-watched U.S. Senate race, it's been a bad week for liberal Democrat Mark Udall. Here's a quick rundown:

1. Coming off the first candidate debate in which he was soundly put on the defensive by Republican Bob Schaffer, Mark Udall appeared to come out a little stronger at Monday's recording of a televised debate. But that all would wash away.

2. At the debate, Mark Udall accepted Bob Schaffer's challenge and promised to vote against a resolution that would adjourn Congress without addressing domestic energy shortages.

3. The very next day, Mark Udall showed up late in Washington after some private campaign fundraising and missed the adjournment resolution vote, which passed 213-212. The Lefty spin machine later tried to excuse Udall by pointing out that he got to participate in the final adjournment vote, but missed the irony in their claim.

4. The Bob Schaffer campaign began pressing Mark Udall to release the names of private donors who were more important than the Coloradans to whom he made the promise.

5. A third consecutive poll was released showing Mark Udall's once significant lead has disappeared and the race in a statistical dead heat.

6. An outside group began airing ads on local TV networks exposing Mark Udall's less-than-conservative record on taxes. As we now like to say at Schaffer v Udall: "The only place Mark Udall wants to drill is your wallet."

All in one week.

Debunking Another Partisan Smear on Colorado Candidate Bob Schaffer

We need to engage in these Senate races, and every seat matters. Here's the latest from Colorado. -Patrick

Even as he trails in the polls, Colorado's Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer gets no breaks. A story in this week's Grand Junction Sentinel claiming Schaffer was engaged in wrongdoing by violating an unwritten State Department policy when he traveled in his role as an energy executive to discuss an oil development deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

But more facts have come forward in this case that demonstrate:

1. State Department officials gave Schaffer's employer the private go-ahead, and

2. Two Democrat operatives are posing as objective experts to keep the smear going against Schaffer.

Read the facts that seriously question the substance and the motives of this latest attack on Bob Schaffer over at the Schaffer v Udall blog.

Rather than letting the old media's carelessness be an excuse, the new media needs to pick it up a notch to help Schaffer's campaign engage with voters and overcome these bumps in the road that are getting far more play than they deserve.

The Republican is still the underdog but has a very real chance to win here in Colorado, especially insofar as an issue can continue to be made of the impact of Mark Udall's radical environmentalism on consumers at the pump, and the gross distortions about Udall's foreign policy record can be exposed.

Slime Attack on CO Senate Candidate Bob Schaffer Subjected to Serious Truth Test

From the states. -Patrick

Colorado is the site of one of the nation's most hotly contested U.S. Senate races. Republican Bob Schaffer, a strong conservative, faces a Democratic Congressman familiarly known to Coloradans as "Boulder liberal Mark Udall."

Two months ago a Denver Post reporter - apparently seeking some sort of investigative journalism award - penned a series of three front-page stories about Schaffer. The stories, based on sketchy sources, sought to implicate a trip Schaffer made as Congressman to the Marianas Islands with Jack Abramoff, forced labor, and sex slavery.

Mark Udall's Support of Middle Class Tax Hike: Out of Step with Coloradans

One of the key contrasts in the important Colorado U.S. Senate race is the issue of tax reform. Bob Schaffer has a consistent record as the taxpayer's friend, while Mark Udall has a consistent record as an old school tax-and-spend liberal Democrat.

You can almost hear the groans of protest from some Democrats: Mark Udall? He's just against all those tax cuts for the rich? He wouldn't vote to increase taxes on the middle class, especially not as Colorado families face the crunch of rising energy prices? Right?

Wrong. Fellow Democratic Congressman have called out Mark Udall and the Party's liberal leadership for just that:

Reps. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) and Don Cazayoux (D-La.), who both won election earlier this year in districts held for years by the GOP, explained their votes against the Democratic budget as stands against tax increases on middle-class voters.

“I can’t support a budget, from either party, that raises taxes on the middle class,” Foster said in a statement posted on his website. “I campaigned on a platform of middle-class tax relief, and I was elected to Washington to bring about change. When asked to choose between my party and the people I represent, I will choose the families of the 14th district every single time.”

Cazayoux struck a very similar tone.

“I voted against [the budget] because it allows tax cuts to expire in 2010, raising taxes on most American taxpayers,” he said in a statement given to The Hill. “I promised the people of the 6th district of Louisiana to vote with my party when they are right, and vote against them when they are wrong. My vote today was the right vote for my constituents.”

On a narrowly decided question, Mark Udall's vote in the House of Representatives helped to lay the groundwork for bringing back the marriage penalty and other tax hikes on hard-working, middle-class Colorado families.

Mark Udall is just representing liberal Boulder in Congress. But he is out of step with most of Colorado.

Cross posted at Schaffer v Udall

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